Stage 1 – Budapest > Visegrád (195km)

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Two years later than planned due to Covid, Hungary host the Grande Partenza of the Giro d’Italia for its 105th edition. Starting in Budapest, the route is largely flat but rises for the final 5km towards the castle in Visegrád which will be the key to determining this year’s first wearer of the pink jersey.

It starts on very steady gradients under 3% before kicking up to near 8% with 3.5km to go. From there it averages around 5% and levels off a little after the flamme rouge. It’s also worth noting that it’s not a straight road – it winds up a hill with some tight turns after leaving the banks of the Danube which may make it more difficult to control.

Contenders

So an intriguing puzzle for the punter to open things up. That final climb – especially at the pace that it’ll be ridden – is too tough for a pure sprinter, however, these days pure sprinters seem like a thing of the past – most can put in short efforts to get over a tricky rise. Should we be looking at the puncheur types – those that specialise in uphill sprints? Or could we even see our GC favourites with a fast finish battling it out?

It’s very much in the balance who it will favour most and the betting reflects that with a mix of rider types filling the top spots. Mathieu van der Poel has made no secret that this is a big goal for him – to collect a pink jersey to go alongside the yellow one he earned so spectacularly last year. Struggling to recover from a back injury, Van der Poel didn’t make his season debut until Milan-Sanremo in March … and went and finished third. Since then, he’s won Dwars door Vlaanderen and followed that up with the Tour of Flanders itself. He’s a very strong favourite, the likeliest winner, but not a betting option at best odds of 7/5 especially given the potentially chaotic final. 

Aussie sprinter Caleb Ewan specifically targeted his winter training to improve his climbing legs in preparation for Milan-Sanremo and the world championships later in the year in his home country. Unfortunately, he got sick before the Italian Monument so we didn’t get to see his form on the Poggio which, in terms of length and gradient, isn’t too dissimilar to this one. He was pretty impressive up it in 2021 but it’s going to be tricky for him to stay near the front and follow all of the inevitable attacks. 

Of the other riders that we might classify as ‘sprinters’, only the Eritrean star Biniam Girmay, who has impressed so much this year culminating in a win at Gent-Wevelgem, stands out as a possible challenger. He’s a better climber than Ewan but lacks the top-end speed of the Aussie. Both are around 11/2 best price.

This a perfect finish for Alejandro Valverde, who still has to be a genuine contender even at 42 years old. His second places in La Flèche Wallonne and Strade Bianche show his level is still remarkably high. It would be no surprise to see ‘El Bala’ in the shake-up for pink and he’s available at quite an attractive 18/1. 

UAE Team Emirates have multiple options for the opening stage – the Italian pair of Alessandro Covi and Diego Ulissi specialise in finishes like this, and João Almeida, although concentrating on a GC challenge, should be one of the quickest finishers if the group is reduced. Even if he’s not challenging for the win, the Portuguese will be trying to stay as close to the front as possible to potentially set up landing the pink jersey after Saturday’s time trial. 

The dream winner of stage 1 would be home favourite Attila Valter. The FDJ man became the first Hungarian to wear the leader’s jersey at the Giro last year but it would need to turn into a significantly tougher climbing test than it appears on paper for him to have a chance here – there’s 33s available on Valter.

But the first pick is going to Bahrain Victorious’ Pello Bilbao. Few come into the race in better form than the Basque man after his stage win in the Tour of the Alps a couple of weeks ago. He was consistently battling it out at the pointy end of affairs (with his daredevil descending skills to the fore), is punchy uphill and fast in a finish. At 25/1, he’s worth an each-way punt.

I think Quick-Step Alpha Vinyl’s Mauro Schmid is a man to keep on side this Giro. This isn’t an ideal stage for him – he’ll be looking to get into breakaways on lumpier stages deeper into the race but he may be one of many looking to launch an attack up this final climb. He’s been super impressive already this season at the Tour of Oman and Coppi e Bartali and let’s not forget is already a Giro stage winner – beating Alessandro Covi no less in an uphill drag sprint last year, albeit at the end of a much tougher day than what faces them here. He’s already been nibbled at from triple-figure odds but the 80/1 available is still worth an interest for a young man on the upturn.

On balance, I think the stage is tilted towards the puncheurs but plenty of others could get involved if it gets messy with attacks flying all over the place – timing will be the key to ending the day in pink.

Stage 1 Bets

Pello Bilbao 1pt each way (4 places) @25/1

Mauro Schmid 0.5pts each way (4 places) @80/1

Prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - use Oddschecker to get the best prices available

Posted 20.16 BST Thu 5th May 2022