Vuelta a España 2023

Stage 18 – Pola de Allande > La Cruz de Linares (179km)

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Stage 17 Result

1st Primož Roglič (10/1)

2nd Jonas Vingegaard (11/4)

3rd Sepp Kuss (12/1)

4th Mikel Landa (66/1)

Stage 17 Bets

Primož Roglič 2pts win @10/1 – 1st

Wout Poels 1pt each way (3 places) @16/1 – 5th

Michael Storer 1pt each way (3 places) @18/1

Santiago Buitrago 1pt each way (4 places) @40/1 – 8th

Another 1-2-3 for Jumbo-Visma – so much for gifting a win to the break. Some very mixed messages coming out of the post-stage interviews. Both Roglič and Vingegaard say they would like Sepp Kuss to win the Vuelta, though neither appear prepared to help him do it. It’s literally in your hands boys! Strange stuff.

Bahrain-Victorious rode a great final in support of Landa who’s looking the best he has in years. Poels and Buitrago beat plenty of GC contenders home – shame they weren’t in a winning break as they’d have hosed up.

Stage 18 Preview

Barring a trappy-looking day on Saturday, this final mountain stage looks to be the last opportunity for movement on general classification and probably for specialist climbers to bag a stage win. So there should definitely be some action, and although Jumbo-Visma appear untouchable, how things play out within that team will be interesting.

It ends with a double ascent of the Puerto de la Cruz de Linares which is 8.3km long at an average gradient of 8.6%, however, the first 4km are the steepest and where attacks should be launched. We’re getting towards last chance saloon for many and given that Jumbo-Visma have forced a win on the last two stages, this may be one for the breakaway.

Stage 18 Contenders

There are no secrets now about who’s going well and who isn’t. We know who the best climbers left in the race are, so expect some familiar names below:

Remco Evenepoel (4/1; 5.00) has reason to be peeved at Jumbo-Visma and then Bahrain-Victorious chasing him down as he looked certain to get another stage win. He’s clearly riding very strongly – what a shame he’s not still in the GC fight. He’s likely to be in the break and, assuming it stays away, will then be favourite to win from it. Has he expended too much energy? Probably not.

Wout Poels (13/2; 7.50) rode a great race up the Angliru, distancing all bar the Jumbo-Visma trio and his teammate, Mikel Landa. With those legs, surely he’ll be given his own chance here. Any value in his price appears to have gone, however.

Primož Roglič (8/1; 9.00) was the first to attack as predicted and earned his right to the stage win. But given the form that Jonas Vingegaard is showing, it seems unlikely he can get himself a fourth Vuelta win now. Another stage win is definitely possible, but we could be relying on Vingegaard to gift it to him.

Romain Bardet (11/1; 12.00) looked lively again with another dig off the front on the Angliru. He can win from the break, but if some of the riders in this list are also in it, he might find a couple better.

Michael Storer (11/1; 12.00) came in 20mins down on stage 17, saving his legs knowing that he was very unlikely to get a result from the GC group. Or knackered maybe … who knows.

Santiago Buitrago (11/1; 12.00) hung on up the Angliru for a long way and then boxed home for sixth. However, he now sits 10th on GC which is a position he’ll likely prefer to protect by staying with the GC group rather than go up the road.

Damiano Caruso (40/1; 41.00) & Antonio Tiberi (33/1; 34.00) were also very impressive in driving Bahrain-Victorious towards and up the last two climbs on stage 17. Like Poels, maybe they’ll be given their own chance as a reward for the hard work.

Marc Soler (22/1; 23.00) tried to chase down Evenepoel but in the end lost his place in the top 10 on GC. UAE will be looking to get something out of the last few stages and Soler, now over 20mins down, is a decent shout to do so from a breakaway.

Lennard Van Eetvelt (22/1; 23.00) has ridden a great race on Grand Tour debut with a third place already secured on stage 14. Despite attacking near the bottom of the Angliru, the young Belgian still battled on to finish 15th. He has every chance of making the frame if in the break.

Jonas Vingegaard (14/1; 15.00), along with the Jumbo-Visma management, has a decision to make. He should be able to find the 8secs he needs to overturn the deficit to his teammate Kuss, but he doesn’t have to. He could reward him for all the hard work he’s done for him these last couple of years and, with Roglič, shepherd him through the final mountain stage knowing they’ve all got a comfortable lead on their nearest competitors. Will Jumbo-Visma find a heart overnight or stick with the ruthless dominance they’ve shown so far?

It would be more than a little heartbreaking for Kuss to lose this on the final mountain stage – and a bit unnecessary by Jumbo-Visma. It could go either way, but I suspect they’ll let the three battle it out one last time, in which case, Vingegaard is a good back-up for the GC win should it come back together.

But the break is the favourite, and Evenepoel the favourite within that at a price that’s just about good enough. Soler and Caruso are in there too as breakaway options.

Stage 18 Bets

Remco Evenepoel 3pts win @4/1

Jonas Vingegaard 1pt win @14/1

Marc Soler 1pt each way (4 places) @22/1

Damiano Caruso 1pt each way (4 places) @40/1

Posted 21:25 BST Wed 13th Sept 2023

Prices to win the stage (in brackets) are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available on the Vuelta a España at Oddschecker

[Vuelta a España stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]

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