Tour de France 2022

Stage 5 – Lille Métropole > Arenberg Porte du Hainaut (153.7km)

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Stage 4 Result

1st Wout van Aert (7/2F)

2nd Jasper Philipsen (13/2)

3rd Christophe Laporte (66/1)

Stage 4 Bets

1pt win Jasper Philipsen @13/2 - 2nd

Philipsen sprinted for second and thought he’d won the race. Unfortunately, Van Aert had gone off the front on the final climb and held off the bunch – incredible performance. Whether Philipsen would’ve won the sprint with the bunch all together we’ll never know. A near miss.

Watch the final stages here.

Stage 5 Preview

The so-called ‘Paris-Roubaix stage’. Whether you agree that cobblestones should be included in a Grand Tour or not, this day has been marked in the diary for months as the first not-to-be-missed stage of this year’s Tour de France. There are eleven sectors to negotiate totalling almost 20km, all in the second half of the race.

There’s sure to be crashes and punctures, and riders will need to ride their luck as well as the bumpy pavé to get through the day unscathed. That said, some teams will see this as a big opportunity to put pressure on GC rivals and that could really blow the race apart.  

Stage 5 Contenders

Amazingly, we’re four stages into the Tour and we’ve had no abandonments. Nor have any GC contenders lost significant time. I’d be surprised if that’s still true by the end of stage 5. There’s likely to be GC action at some point but that might be separate from those battling for the stage, which is what we’re concerned about.  

Put simply, we’re looking for riders that are good over cobbles and also have freedom to chase the stage win. There are a number of accomplished classics riders that are likely to be protecting their leaders – we need to make a judgement on who will or won’t be given a licence.

There have been contradictory noises over whether Wout van Aert will be allowed to go for the stage. There’s no doubt that protecting Primož Roglič and Jonas Vingegaard will be the main goal but I also wouldn’t be surprised if he’s given the green light at some point if the two leaders appear safe.

That was a pretty sensational win on stage 4 and he’s clearly flying – it would seem silly to hold him back whilst he’s in this form. Or maybe Jumbo-Visma will give Christophe Laporte or Tiesj Benoot an option to reward them for their excellent work so far. The doubt around Van Aert’s role makes the 9/2 about him unattractive, but it’ll look huge if he’s in the front group with 20km to go!

Not only did Van Aert win stage 4 but he also added another 8secs to his yellow jersey lead. That wasn’t part of the plan for the likes of Mathieu van der Poel – now 38secs behind – who had signalled his intent to try to claim the lead here or over the next couple of days. Van der Poel has been strangely quiet so far this Tour. We’re used to seeing him blow races apart, often it seems just to relieve his boredom.

To be fair, it was clear that Alpecin-Deceuninck would back Jasper Philipsen for the first sprint stages, but surely Van der Poel will be let off the leash for this. He’s been installed as the favourite to win stage 5 at a best price of 7/2. Considering he’s been cooling his boots since the opening time trial, you’d think he’d have more in the tank to take on Van Aert in a head-to-head, but who knows?

Similarly, QuickStep-Alpha Vinyl’s Yves Lampaert must have fancied his chances of getting back into the yellow jersey he wore after stage 1 but now lies 25secs behind Van Aert. That’s still doable but probably depends on Jumbo-Visma’s tactics. Are they willing to let the yellow jersey go? Perhaps they’d prefer to.

Lampaert crashed spectacularly when lying in second in the closing stages of this year’s Paris-Roubaix showing he can handle this terrain (as long as spectators don’t get in the way). Without a GC contender to protect, he, along with Florian Sénéchal and Kasper Asgreen are sure to be active on the front at some point. You can get 16/1 about Lampaert and Sénéchal. Asgreen – still recovering after a heavy crash in the Tour de Suisse – is bigger at 50s.  

The winner of Paris-Roubaix this year was Ineos Grenadiers’ Dylan van Baarle. I think we can say for sure that Van Baarle will be on duty for his leaders here. Whilst Geraint Thomas can handle himself over the cobbles, Adam Yates and Dani Martínez will need a bit more nursing.

So too Stefan Küng and Nils Politt who’ll probably have to look after their leaders, David Gaudu and Aleksandr Vlasov respectively.

The Trek-Segafredo pair of Mads Pedersen and Jasper Stuyven could be major players here and, similar to QuickStep, can benefit from having numbers up the road. Stuyven especially is a past master of the cobbled classics and may be the preferred choice given the help he’s given to Pedersen over the first few stages.

Slovenia’s Matej Mohorič will also get freedom to chase a stage win. Bahrain Victorious have had an interesting Tour de France so far with raids on the team hotel in Copenhagen following coordinated house searches across several countries prior to the Tour starting. Whether anything comes from those we’ll have to see but it’s hardly ideal preparation. That said of course, Mohorič won stage 19 of the Tour last year just two days after having his room searched by French police, so maybe we’ll get another ‘zipped lips’ gesture over the line.

Finally, we can’t rule out Peter Sagan. He’s got a very lengthy palmarès which includes a win in Paris-Roubaix and is sure to be there or thereabouts.

I fancy Van der Poel to win however the price is short. Given that luck could play a big part in the outcome, I think it’s worth having a few each way plays at bigger prices.

Stage 5 Bets

1pt each way (4 places) Yves Lampaert @16/1

1pt each way (4 places) Jasper Stuyven @28/1

0.5pts each way (4 places) Christophe Laporte @33/1

Posted 2105 BST Tue 5th July 2022

Prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available on the Tour de France at Oddschecker