Giro d’Italia 2024
Stage 8 – Spoleto > Prati di Tivo (152km)
Sat 11th May | Scheduled start: 12:30 CET
Profile
Stage 7 Result
1st Tadej Pogačar (EvsF)
2nd Filippo Ganna (7/4) +17secs
3rd Magnus Sheffield (7/1) +49secs
Stage 7 Bets
Tadej Pogačar 3pts win @Evs – 1st
Not quite La Planche des Belles Filles perhaps but not far off – what a ride from Pogačar! It looked all over with Ganna seemingly getting the better of conditions and able to slipstream multiple riders and team cars, but Pogačar flew up the hill putting over a minute into the Italian and even more into Thomas to win by 17secs. Pogačar now leads the GC by 2mins 36secs to Dani Martínez and looks unstoppable.
Stage 8 Preview
Despite stage 2 ending with a first-category climb, this feels like the first proper mountain day of this year’s Giro d’Italia with over 3,500m of climbing packed into its 150km route. We’re uphill from the gun for an unclassified climb of around 7km and if the break doesn’t go there, then it should on the second category Forca Capistrello (16.3km at 5.6%, max 12%) that follows straight after.
The summit finish up the first-category Prati di Tivo climb is a long one – 14.6km at 7% – but is pretty consistent in gradient and rarely gets over the double-digit mark, so it should favour climbers who can diesel their way up, rather than the punchier types.
Stage 8 Contenders
The start favours a big breakaway of climbers who would then be favourites to take the day. UAE Team Emirates sit in pink and, assuming there are no GC threats up the road, have no reason to hammer their domestiques all day. Most likely, there’ll be a GC dust-up on the final climb, by which time the break should have enough of a lead to fight it out for the stage.
The big question is who will be allowed up the road. Riders 5-6mins back may not get a licence, but a start like this isn’t easy to control and may quickly get out of hand. Letting them go and pegging the break might be a compromise in this situation. So the race dynamic is complex and depends entirely on who’s in the break.
From the GC favourites:
Tadej Pogačar (7/2; 4.5) admitted after stage 6 that he didn’t mind giving the pink jersey away, temporarily of course. Maybe UAE will ride, maybe they won’t, but if it comes back together, he wins.
Dani Martínez (33/1/1; 34.0) now sits second on GC and has an excellent uphill sprint should he come to the line with others.
Ben O’Connor (40/1; 41.0) was unlucky with a mechanical on the time trial, losing 20-30secs. He could be best of the rest behind Pogačar on a long climb that suits.
Geraint Thomas (50/1; 51.0) needs to bounce back after a disappointing time trial. Like O’Connor, the final climb is good for his diesel engine, but a win is a stretch.
Antonio Tiberi (125/1; 126.0) looks a huge price considering he’s only really lost time on GC due to a puncture and a mechanical on stage 2. He could place and be a decent GC saver pick should it come back together.
Alexey Lutsenko (150/1; 151.0) won impressively on this climb a month ago at the Giro d’Abruzzo. He’s got stronger opposition to conquer here but he’s clearly going well, sitting sixth on GC.
Breakaway candidates:
Romain Bardet (20/1; 21.0) was unfortunate to suffer from a bit of sickness on stage 1 and lost almost a minute. Now 5mins 23secs down he’ll be looking to leapfrog back up the standings. He’d be a dangerous man for teams to let go however.
Michael Storer (14/1; 15.0) looked a world beater when he took two stages and the KOM jersey at the Vuelta a España three years ago but has been in and out since. Like Bardet, he sits less than 6mins off GC and would be a top 5 and top 10 threat to other teams.
Einer Rubio (16/1; 17.0) won a stage at last year’s Giro but ditto the above with regards the GC threat.
Georg Steinhauser (28/1; 29.0) is on a similar mark but as a rider with less pedigree, may be able to sneak up the road. He’s not going for GC so if his effort failed it would just buy him time to try again another day, whereas the three above may be reluctant to burn matches and stay with the favourites.
Giulio Pellizzari (16/1; 17.0) impressed hugely at last month’s Tour of the Alps. The 20-year-old was runner up at the Tour de l’Avenir last year and clearly has huge promise. He has almost half an hour on GC, will surely will be in the break and once there, can win.
Andrea Piccolo (40/1; 41.0) has been very active in this Giro so far. EF Education EasyPost would be able to play the numbers with both Piccolo and Steinhauser up the road.
Nairo Quintana (40/1; 41.0) is a former Giro d’Italia winner and his pedigree is undeniable, but how’s his level now? He came in with no GC ambitions and Movistar will be buoyed by Pelayo Sánchez’s win on stage 6.
Max Schachmann (66/1; 67.0) is back to something like his best and looks a stage winner waiting to happen. It was strange to see him go so hard in the time trial though, finishing fifth. That must have left a mark but maybe his legs are that good – it would be a surprise not to see the German up the road.
Jan Tratnik (100/1; 101.0) appeared to have licence to go for the break on the gravel stage which suggests Visma-Lease a Bike aren’t too concerned with keeping numbers around Cian Uijtdebroeks (50/1). Even though he’s seen more as a rouleur, Tratnik is super strong uphill, remember he finished second on Monte Zoncolan from a breakaway in 2021. With few steep gradients, this finishing climb suits him perfectly.
Plenty more will be after getting up the road so it could turn into a mega-break. In which case, catching the right ‘break from the break’ will be crucial.
It's probably best to lean towards picks with plenty of time on GC, but it’s not impossible that riders in and around the 5-6min mark infiltrate the move. GC saver picks are also prudent on a day where the race dynamics could turn complicated. Either way, it should be a good one!
Stage 8 Bets
Dani Martínez 1pt each way (4 places) @25/1
Antonio Tiberi 0.5pts each way (4 places) @100/1
Giulio Pellizzari 1pt each way (4 places) @16/1
Georg Steinhauser 1pt each way (4 places) @25/1
Max Schachmann 0.5pts each way (4 places) @40/1
Jan Tratnik 0.5pts each way (4 places) @80/1
Posted 22:06 BST Fri 10th May 2024
Prices to win the stage are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available on the Giro d’Italia at Oddschecker
[Giro d’Italia stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]
Follow @elpatroncycling on X and Threads
