Tour de France 2022

General Classification Preview

Contenders

Tadej Pogačar at the start line of the Tour of Slovenia in June 2020 — *Tadej Pogačar is the strong favourite for the Tour de France and is aiming for a third successive win in 2022. [Image Credit: Shutterstock Standard Licence]*

Tadej Pogačar – 4/5

The 2020 and 2021 Tour de France winner warmed up with a typically dominant display in his home Tour of Slovenia, winning two stages (though it could’ve been three had he not lost a game of Rock-Paper-Scissors with teammate Rafał Majka at the end of stage 4) and the overall. Is he beatable? On ability alone probably not and the odds-on price reflects that.

However, lots can happen in a Grand Tour – he has to stay safe in the dangerous first week, particularly on the cobbles of stage 5, plus avoid the mechanical issues that have plagued a lot of UAE Team Emirates riders lately. And of course he has to stay Covid-free throughout. He’s the most likely winner, but an unattractive best price of 4/5.

Primož Roglič before stage 14 of the Giro d’Italia 2019 — *Primož Roglič is looking to put the disappointments of the last two Tours behind him and challenge for the top step in Paris. [Image Credit: Shutterstock Standard Licence]*

Primož Roglič – 4/1

Roglič looked certain to win the Tour de France in 2020 before being overhauled by his compatriot in the final time trial on the Planche des Belles Filles, which they’ll tackle again on the first mountain stage of this edition. His race in 2021 was ruined by crashes but he remains the only rider to have seriously challenged Pogačar in the last couple of years.

He struggled early season with a knee injury but won last time out at the Critérium du Dauphiné and looked pretty solid. Despite this, his price has drifted somewhat to 4/1 mainly due to the strong showing of his teammate Jonas Vingegaard.

Jonas Vingegaard during the Critérium de Dauphiné in June 2022 — *Jonas Vingegaard in action during the Critérium de Dauphiné in June in preparation for the Tour de France. [Image Credit: Shutterstock Standard Licence]*

Jonas Vingegaard – 4/1

The young Dane took over GC leadership at Jumbo-Visma in last year’s Tour de France following Roglič’s abandonment and stepped up impressively, eventually finishing with a runners-up spot on the podium behind Pogačar. This has complicated the leadership hierarchy within the team, and both will go into the Tour as co-leaders.

This may help them get the better of Pogačar, in fact it might be the only way – with one having the freedom to attack while the other sits in. For this to work you need top level riders and with Roglič and Vingegaard, Jumbo-Visma have two excellent cards to play. Vingegaard is currently joint second favourite with Roglič – the price of 4/1 looks short enough but he’s certainly on an upward curve.

Aleksandr Vlasov during the time trial of Paris-Nice in March 2021 — *Aleksandr Vlasov looked good at the Tour de Suisse but how badly has Covid affected his form ahead of the Tour de France? [Image Credit: Shutterstock Standard Licence]*

Aleksandr Vlasov – 20/1

Another who must be considered one of the leading contenders for the Tour de France is Bora-hansgrohe’s in-form Aleksandr Vlasov. His upturn in results appeared to be continuing at the Tour de Suisse a couple of weeks back, winning stage 5 and taking the leader’s jersey, only to be struck with a Covid positive the following day.

That clearly puts a question mark over his health and fitness and the best-price 20/1 about him is perhaps twice what it would’ve been without that forced withdrawal. Still, with strong climbing support from Max Schachmann, Felix Großschartner, Patrick Konrad and Lennard Kämna – it could represent value, albeit with some caution.

Dani Martínez helping Egan Bernal during the Giro d’Italia in 2021. — *Dani Martínez helping Egan Bernal win the Giro d’Italia in 2021. Can he step up and be the main man in the Tour de France? [Image Credit: Shutterstock Standard Licence]*

Dani Martínez – 20/1

One team that has tended to back a single leader in Grand Tours is Ineos Grenadiers (formerly Team Sky) but that won’t be the case this year. After declaring to be ‘all-in’ for Adam Yates back in March, things have changed somewhat. Their most consistent performer has been Colombia’s Dani Martínez who’s available at 20/1.

He won a stage and the overall at the Tour of the Basque Country in April, and even though he lost time early in the Tour de Suisse to finish a disappointing eighth, his form appeared to be building towards the end. If it peaks in July, Martínez will be a serious podium threat.

Geraint Thomas holding the Welsh flag after winning the 2018 Tour de France — *Geraint Thomas won the Tour de France in 2018. Could he double up in 2022 at 36? [Image Credit: Shutterstock Standard Licence]*

Geraint Thomas – 25/1

Until the Tour de Suisse, it looked very much like the 2018 Tour de France winner Thomas would be Ineos’ third choice leader (behind Yates and Martínez) and act as a back-up/super domestique. But Yates got Covid and had to withdraw without being able to show his form and Martínez was already out of GC contention.

This opened the door for the Welshman who grabbed his chance, won the race overall and leapfrogged into protected rider status for the Tour. The footnote to that success is the number of Covid withdrawals – only 76 of the original 152 starters finished, including leading fancies like Yates and Vlasov. He was punted in to 12/1 in places off the back of that, but there is some 25/1 out there too.

Ben O’Connor during the time trial in Paris-Nice in March 2021 — *Ben O’Connor will have to limit his losses across the two time trials in order remain a contender for the Tour de France. [Image Credit: Shutterstock Standard Licence]*

Ben O’Connor – 40/1

Australian O’Connor has elevated himself from stage hunter into Grand Tour contender over the last 12 months. A stage win from a breakaway in the Tour de France last year put him in GC contention and he managed to hold on for an impressive fourth spot. He finished third last time out in the Critérium de Dauphiné behind Roglič and Vingegaard, and very much held his own in the mountain stages.

He was backed in to 40/1 from triple-figure odds after that race. O’Connor’s problem is the amount of time trial kilometres where he can expect to lose time on his rivals, and that may do for his chances of a podium spot.

Adam Yates on the podium wearing the white jersey for best young rider during the Giro d’Italia in 2017 — *Adam Yates was another Covid casualty in June. What will his form be like going into the Tour de France? [Image Credit: Shutterstock Standard Licence]*

Adam Yates – 50/1

Following his withdrawal from the Tour de Suisse due to Covid earlier this month, we’re in the dark about Yates’ form and fitness. He was said to have been experiencing the characteristic ‘mild symptoms’ and he may not know himself how he’s going to go. Unlike Vlasov, we can’t even confirm that he was on good form before he left – and that’s factored into his biggish price of 50/1.

A watching brief over the first week is probably wise. At his best, there’s no doubt Yates is a podium contender though the race would have to fall apart somewhat for him to be challenging for the win.

Enric Mas during the time trial at the Critérium de Dauphiné in June 2017 — *Enric Mas has been battered and bruised this season. Is a Tour de France challenge now beyond him? [Image Credit: Shutterstock Standard Licence]*

Enric Mas – 50/1

Movistar Team’s Enric Mas has had a disrupted build-up after a heavy fall and then abandonment at the Critérium de Dauphiné which followed similar fate at Tirreno-Adriatico earlier in the season. Given that, the 50/1 about him doesn’t seem that generous.

But he has previous for being there or thereabouts in Grand Tours – two seconds at the Vuelta a España, a fifth and a sixth at the last two Tours, and there have been glimpses that his career is peaking – so if he stays out of trouble could well be up there and challenging.

Outsiders and Market Movers

We’ve had several races in the lead-up to the Tour de France and some riders have moved up in the betting pecking order after impressing. Israel-Premier Tech’s Jakub Fuglsang rolled back the years at the Tour de Suisse, finishing third. He was cut to around 25/1 but has since drifted back out to a best price of 66/1. At 37, age is against him, so too is the 40km time trial on stage 20.

Groupama-FDJ go in with three co-leaders and will no doubt see how the first week plays out before deciding which rider is given full support. French hope David Gaudu is available at a big-looking 225/1 in places but as short as 50/1 with others. Gaudu won a stage at the Critérium de Dauphiné but then struggled in the mountains and the time trial – a top 5 isn’t out of reach but higher seems a stretch.

Thibaut Pinot carried the burden of home expectations for many years and now seems likely to chase stages rather than a high GC placing, though is available at 150/1 for the overall. He got his first win in over 1000 days a couple of months back at the Tour of the Alps and then followed that up with another at the Tour de Suisse. Pinot will be one of the favourites to take the polka dot jersey as ‘King of the Mountains’ at the Tour de France.

FDJ’s third option is an interesting one – Michael Storer showed at last year’s Vuelta a España that when his climbing legs are good, he’s pretty peerless. I think there’s no doubt the young Australian will develop into a Grand Tour GC rider, though this may be a year too soon for him.

He warmed up with a second place at the Tour of the Alps and a third in the Mont Ventoux Dénivelé Challenge. As with others, he’ll lose ground in the time trials and is a huge 425/1 for the outright at three places, but the 6/1 about him for a top 10 is a nice little tempter.

Storer was behind two EF Education-EasyPost riders on Ventoux who have both impressed leading up to the Tour. Portugal’s Ruben Guerreiro was cut from around 4000/1 to 125/1 after his performance there and the previous week at the Dauphiné where he mixed it with the best. He’s clearly flying and though he’s more likely to be targeting stages, a top 10 on GC seems very possible and worth a small interest too at 7/2.

Esteban Chaves returned to something like his best since his move from Team BikeExchange-Jayco – second on Ventoux and fourth behind Vingegaard, Roglič and O’Connor on the final climb in the Dauphiné. You can have 225/1 about the Colombian who has a good shot of a top 10 too on his current form.

EF leader Rigoberto Urán didn’t make it to the end of the Tour de Suisse due to Covid and wasn’t pulling up many trees before that. Despite his multiple Grand Tour podiums, it’s difficult to see the 35-year-old challenging here – again, there’s 225/1 available.

One very interesting GC prospect is Romain Bardet at an attractive 80/1. Similar to Pinot, he bore the crushing weight of expectation from the French public and was one of the favourites for the Tour de France for many years without quite making it to the top step. We last saw Bardet at the Giro d’Italia where he looked to be launching a serious GC challenge only to be struck down with gastro problems.

Bardet and his directeur sportif, Matt Winston, insist that he’s not going for GC but if he finds himself in a high overall position by the second rest day, it’ll be a tough call for him to let that go.

(Update 29/6/22: Esteban Chaves did not make the final team selection for EF Education-Easypost)

Crashes, cobbles and crosswinds

Stage 1 of the last two Tours de France have been blighted by really bad crashes. We had the wet conditions that made it treacherous around Nice in 2020 and then the infamous ‘Opi-Omi woman’ last year. The first week this time looks particularly perilous with potential crosswinds in Denmark, the cobbles on stage 5 and the inevitable spills as 176 riders all fight like dogs for position and the chance of glory.

For general classification contenders it’s all about staying out of trouble and limiting any time losses. It’ll be worth reassessing the outright market before their first real climbing test on stage 7 as it’s guaranteed that some of the riders above will have suffered misfortune and will already be out of overall contention if not the race itself – it happens in every Grand Tour! Hopefully, we won’t lose any of the major players, though there is another threat also hanging over this race.

Will we even get to Paris?

Rising Covid infection rates across Europe have resulted in a large number of positive cases throughout the pro peloton. The Tour de Suisse a few weeks back was particularly badly affected with over half the riders having to abandon and whole teams pulling out due to outbreaks amongst the riders and staff.

So there’s a real risk that the whole thing falls apart and a winner will have to be called before Paris. Let’s hope the experience of the last month has sharpened up the protocols and we get a proper race. Fingers crossed because it promises to be a cracker!