Stage 1 – Torino > Torino ITT (8.6km)

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Preview

The 104th Giro d’Italia gets under way with a short individual time trial around the city of Turin in the Piedmont region of northern Italy. From Piazza Castello, the riders will follow the Po river south, cross over it, then head back up to the finish line with the Po on their left. 

It’s a gently undulating course along straight, wide roads that doesn’t appear too technical, assuming you don’t ride into one of the many tramlines. 

Changeable weather can play a big role in determining the outcome of TTs – a badly timed downpour can easily scupper the chances of riders with the wrong start time, and gusting winds, as we saw in last year’s Grande Partenza in Palermo, can be very dangerous on a disc-wheeled TT bike. Thankfully, the forecast for Saturday is for dry, mainly sunny skies and very light winds, so fingers crossed they can all get around safely.

Contenders

Had this race been two months ago, there is no doubt that world time trial champion Filippo Ganna would’ve been a heavy odds-on favourite for victory. He’d just won the ITT on stage 2 of the UAE Tour – his eighth time trial victory in a row (which included all three in last year’s Giro) – and it was very clear that Ganna was the best time trialist in the world, by a distance. 

Since then, however, he’s been beaten into third in Tirreno-Adriatico, and then barely scraped into the top ten of the opening prologue and final day ITT of his last warm-up race, the Tour de Romandie.

So what has happened to Ganna’s form? The opening prologue in Romandie was very short at just 4km and ended in a sharpish rise to the line which didn’t really suit him. The conditions in the final TT were sketchy with wet, slippery roads and he can be forgiven for not giving it 100% and risk pranging his bike into a roadside barrier the week before the Giro. So excuses can be made, but still it’s a marked drop-off.

Last year, Ganna’s main objectives were to win the World TT Championship, mop up the Giro TTs and wear the pink jersey of his home Grand Tour in the process. He managed all of that, as well as a remarkable win on a mountain stage from a breakaway – something not many thought was possible given his size. 

Ganna’s main goals in ‘21 are the time trial on the road and the team pursuit on the track in the Tokyo Olympics at the end of July. It’s possible that Ganna has purposefully slimmed down a bit for the Giro, losing some strength in the process, in order to better help his team leader, Egan Bernal, in the tough mountainous final week, and will then bulk back up again for Tokyo.

It could also be that he’s been a bit sick (he got Covid-19 at the back end of 2020, and apparently had flu leading up to Milan-Sanremo at the end of March) or that he’s just been extra careful to be in one piece for a Giro that begins in his home region and visits Verbania, his birthplace, on stage 20. Either way, he isn’t the 1/4 or 1/5 shot he would’ve been. Ganna is still favourite for stage 1, but is available at a best price of 6/5.

The winner of the final TT in last week’s Tour de Romandie – beating Ganna by 37secs – was French TT champion Rémi Cavagna. Cavagna, by his own admission, held nothing back on this effort, taking some real risks at times in tricky conditions. There’s no doubt that this opening stage, and the pink jersey that goes with it, are now a big goal for Cavagna, who is best priced at 5/2. 

Of course, for betting purposes, who you think is going to win is, to some extent, irrelevant. Ganna is clearly very backable at a certain price, and unbackable at another. I don’t think there’ll be much between the top two on the day – and for that reason, Cavagna is better value at 5/2. 

Belgian phenom Remco Evenepoel has not raced since he hit a stone bridge, fell down an embankment and broke his pelvis last August at Il Lombardia. Still, such is the confidence in the young superstar that he’s not only third favourite for stage 1, but also to win the Giro overall. At the moment, he’s playing down expectations, looking to take it a day at a time. In my view, it would be some achievement if he makes it through the whole three weeks, never mind compete for the win. Who knows? Maybe he’s that good – but at just 11/4, with no racing in his legs, he’s unbackable.

Stepping up as team leader in the absence of Evenepoel last year was yet another stellar youngster, João Almeida, and he did a brilliant job – holding the leader’s pink jersey for 15 days and finishing fourth overall. Almeida is a punter’s friend in that he’s able to compete in almost every type of stage. He finished in the top 10 in 11 of the 21 stages last year, including seven times in the top four. He can time trial, can challenge in reduced sprints, and is a real battler on the climbs who always seems to finish in a higher position than looked likely halfway up the mountain. The Portuguese is more than capable of pulling out a big performance here – at a best price of 20/1, he’s a good each way bet.

Victor Campenaerts comes into the race off a decent spring classics campaign. He showed on the front of plenty of races but wasn’t able to play out for a win. It’s a couple of years since the former hour record holder got his nose in front in a time trial and often seems to have some sort of mishap – he came down in the opening TT of last year’s Giro and could have won stage 9 in 2019 but for a terrible bike change. Campenaerts is around 9/1.

Similarly, it's been a few years since Slovenian Jan Tratnik won a time trial – though he did take a brilliant win from a breakaway on stage 16 of last year’s Giro. No doubt he’ll be looking to repeat that this year on stage 15 when the peloton heads into his home country. He’ll certainly be targeting this opening stage – the short distance will suit, and he showed good form in the Tour de Romandie. Tratnik should be challenging for a place. 

One rider I like at a big price is Israel Start-Up Nation’s Patrick Bevin. The Kiwi was a surprise presence in two sprint finishes in Romandie, finishing an impressive second and third. Bevin is better known for his time trial abilities (fourth at the Worlds and second at the Vuelta in ‘19) rather than his sprinting, so if he’s flying could go well in this. He pulled out of the race after stage 2, perhaps to stay fresh for the Giro and avoid the filthy weather that was forecast and duly arrived for the remainder of the race. His directeur sportif Nicki Sørensen sounds bullish, and is worth a small interest at 33/1.

Another rider that might go well at a very big price is former U23 Italian national time trial champion Matteo Sobrero. Seventh in last year’s opening time trial, a move to Astana – Premier Tech and a year’s more experience could see him push for a place. 300/1 is worth a nibble. 

Ineos Grenadiers’ Gianni Moscon showed blistering form at the Tour of the Alps last month, winning two stages, and he could go well at a big price. So too his fellow Italian Alberto Bettiol who’s returning after illness.

Finally, a rider who’ll be an important mountain domestique for Almeida (and/or Evenepoel), will be looking for a top 10 GC finish himself so won’t want to give away time here, and put in the time trial of his life last week in Romandie finishing sixth, which was 16secs faster than Ganna – you can get a best price of 600/1 for a speculative fun bet on Fausto Masnada. The Italian was probably extra motivated in Romandie as he was chasing a place on the overall podium – which he managed by one second – but still it looks big for a rider who appears to be on the upslope. 

The short distance makes a random result more likely, and there are plenty of other time trial specialists turned trusty domestiques in the field who could make the frame – Alex Dowsett, Tobias Ludvigsson, Tobias Foss, Jonathan Castroviejo, Jos Van Emden, Matthias Brändle. But in the end I think the win will be settled by the top two, with a host of others in with a shout of a podium spot.

It’s a small stakes day that won’t have a huge bearing on whether this Giro is profitable or not – there’ll be plenty of those later in the race. 

Stage 1 Bets

Rémi Cavagna 1pt win @5/2 (decimal 3.50)

João Almeida 0.5pts each way (3 places) @20/1 (21.0)

Patrick Bevin 0.5pts each way (3 places) @33/1 (34.0)

Matteo Sobrero 0.25pts each way (3 places) @300/1 (301.0)

Fausto Masnada 0.25pts each way (3 places) @600/1 (601.0)

Posted 19.41 BST Thu 6th May 2021