Stage 2 – Stupinigi > Novara (179km)

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Stage 1 Result

1st Filippo GANNA (6/5); 2nd Edoardo AFFINI (100/1); 3rd Tobias FOSS (225/1)

Recommended:

Rémi Cavagna 1pt win @5/2 (decimal 3.50)

João Almeida 0.5pts each way (3 places) @20/1 (21.0)

Patrick Bevin 0.5pts each way (3 places) @33/1 (34.0)

Matteo Sobrero 0.25pts each way (3 places) @300/1 (301.0)

Fausto Masnada 0.25pts each way (3 places) @600/1 (601.0)

Chapeau or no (chapeau)?

No chapeau. Ganna came through in dominant style reminiscent of last year, rediscovering his form at just the right time. Cavagna finished down in a disappointing fifth. There were no crashes or abandonments, which was good to see. Taking nothing away from Affini and Foss, Jumbo-Visma have clearly invested well in new TT equipment over the winter. Evenepoel got a great result considering his layoff and, along with his teammate Almeida (who just missed a place, finishing fourth), are the best positioned of the GC hopefuls. Another GC winner was Alexandr Vlasov (just 7secs back from Almeida), otherwise there wasn’t much difference between the main protagonists. Dan Martin, Emanuel Buchmann, Romain Bardet and Mikel Landa were the biggest GC losers and already have 30secs plus to make up on the Deceuninck – Quick-Step pair.

Loss (-4 pts)

Preview

A flat day bar a little fourth-category bump in the middle to give us our first maglia azzurra wearer. For that reason it’ll be competitive to get into the first break of the Giro, with the smaller teams looking for a bit of exposure and the chance to wear one of the coveted jerseys, for a day at least.  

But it’ll end in a sprint and we’ll get to see how all the fast men measure up against each other. There’s a 90 degree right-hander with around 1.5km to go, but otherwise the final is flat and wide, favouring the pure speedsters with a good leadout. 

The weather forecast for Sunday is decent – there’s a small chance of a shower or two but they’d be unlucky to have to deal with a dangerous, wet finish. Monday, however, doesn’t look as promising with heavy rain due.

Contenders

There are six opportunities for the sprinters to have their fun (stages 2, 3, 5, 7, 10 and 13) though a couple of those are by no means pan-flat and may well be vulnerable to a strong breakaway or a late ambush. So it’s even more important for the teams targeting sprint victories to take advantage of this one whilst their men are fresh and enough teams can be relied upon to work on the front and control the break.

The fastest man on the startlist is undoubtedly Lotto Soudal’s Caleb Ewan. The Australian has eight Grand Tour stage wins in his palmarès – including three in the Giro d’Italia – and his main goal this year is to ride in and win a stage in all three Grand Tours. For this reason, like many of the sprinters, he probably won’t continue past stage 13 in order to better prepare for the Tour de France starting on June 26th. 

There are no sprint stages after stage 13 (stage 18 is nominally a flat stage but looks primed for a breakaway win or late attack), and so his only motivation to continue would be if he was wearing the maglia ciclamino for leading the points classification and felt he had a chance to hold on to it all the way to Milan. If Ewan dominates the sprints as Arnaud Démare did last year then he will, by default, be in the points jersey – and then will have a decision to make. 

Teams dedicated to winning a sprint can often deploy four or five riders to position and guide their chosen man to the last couple of hundred metres before the final sprint is unleashed. That’s not going to be the case in this year’s Giro as Ewan himself pointed out – no team has the luxury of a really long sprint train which could make for slightly chaotic finals and confusion over responsibility.

Ewan’s recent form looks patchy on paper – a third and a sixth in the Volta a la Comunitat Valenciana last time out – but conditions were atrocious, he didn’t ride out to the line once he knew the win was gone, and in one case was badly impeded. And it’s not like he hasn’t shown form this year – he looked a million dollars finishing second in Milan-Sanremo and won in the UAE Tour. I’m sure he’ll be spot on for this, he’s the standout sprinter in the field, and has to be a bet – there’s 9/4 available about Ewan.

Second favourite in the book is an interesting selection for this year’s Giro – Dylan Groenewegen. Similar to Remco Evenepoel, Groenewegen is coming back from a long layoff and has decided to return with a bang at a Grand Tour. The circumstances surrounding Groenewegen’s enforced absence however are very different – a crash for which he was to blame at the Tour of Poland resulted in Fabio Jakobsen going head first into a roadside barrier and needing extensive surgery to save his life and career. Miraculously, Jakobsen has recently returned to racing, but Groenewegen has had to sit out a nine-month ban during which he’s clearly done a lot of soul searching and has (predictably) received a lot of vicious abuse. Although it looked as though the two Dutchmen had taken positive steps to rebuild their relationship, it now appears there’s still a ways to go after Jakobsen revealed that he still had not received a personal apology. Groenewegen will be nervous to see how he’s received back in the pro peloton, and Jakobsen’s comments will have done nothing to settle those nerves. With no racing in his legs, and without even the guarantee that he’ll get involved in the sprint, the 10/3 available seems super skinny.

Interestingly, Jumbo-Visma also bring another Dutch sprinter with them in 23-year-old rookie David Dekker. He looked very fast at the UAE Tour back in February, finishing second twice (beating Ewan both times) and taking home the points jersey. His current form is unclear as he spent the spring getting some classics experience, and the fact that they’ve drafted Groenewegen into the team could be seen as a slight. But should Groenewegen not fight out the sprint, Dekker will step up and the 18/1 available will look big. He’s here for experience and landing a Grand Tour win straight off the bat is a big ask, but his team leader, George Bennett, definitely thinks he has the potential to win a stage. Dekker put in an excellent performance on stage 1 so clearly has good legs and is included in my bet selections. 

It’s three years since we had a Belgian stage winner at the Giro (Tim Wellens, stage 4) which is surprising considering the strength in depth of Belgian cycling, though obviously more dominant in the northern classics than stage races. Looking to break that run and land his first Grand Tour win on debut is Tim Merlier. At 28, Merlier has broken into the upper ranks of sprinters relatively late in his career having had most of his success in lower division races. As Belgian national champion, he won a stage at last year’s Tirreno-Adriatico and has followed that up with three wins in one-day races in 2021. He’s short at around 7/2 considering this will be a big step up in class and stress levels. He’s also missing his regular leadout man, Jonas Rickaert, so is ruled out as a betting prospect. But he’s fast and obviously has a shot with a clear run.

For the second year running we’re blessed to have Peter Sagan on the start line. He’ll also ride the Tour this summer but unlike Caleb Ewan he plans to go all the way to Milan and win the maglia ciclamino that was denied to him last year by Arnaud Démare. Sagan started the year slowly after struggling to recover from Covid-19 but has recently hit some decent form – a fourth in Milan-Sanremo followed by stage wins at the Volta Ciclista a Catalunya and the Tour de Romandie. This pure speed finish is not ideal for Sagan but he’s sure to be in the mix.

Two riders who, arguably, were the fastest sprinters in the world a few years ago are Fernando Gaviria and Elia Viviani. Since then, however, both have suffered from illness, injury and seemingly a loss in confidence. 

Gaviria caught Covid-19 twice in 2020 and broke his wrist last time out at the E3 Saxo Bank Classic in March, whilst Viviani is returning after surgery to treat a heart arrhythmia. So a watching brief on both for this stage, but it would be great to see them fit and well and getting back to something like their top level. 

Despite winning the maglia ciclamino twice (‘15, ‘16), Italian national champion, Giacomo Nizzolo, has never won a stage in a Grand Tour. He was in great form leading into last year’s Tour de France but was forced to abandon on stage 8 due to a knee injury. Nizzolo’s form this spring has been decent – the standout ride being a second place at Gent-Wevelgem. He should be there or thereabouts come the finish.

Others to consider – Trek-Segafredo’s Matteo Moschetti is fast and is supposedly fully recovered from a leg fracture last year which has hampered his progress. Patrick Bevin is coming off the back of two placed finishes at the Tour de Romandie, but Israel Start-up Nation’s chosen sprinter is likely to be Italian Davide Cimolai, and he tends to do better on uphill drags rather than flat finishes. 

A rider who rode exceptionally well at last year’s Giro – both in the sprints and in breakaways – was AG2R Citroën’s Andrea Vendrame. His form this year has been patchier and his best chance for a win is probably on a hillier day, but he’s included for small stakes at a huge price and an (almost) free swing. 

Stage 2 Bets 

Caleb Ewan 2pts win @9/4 (3.25)

David Dekker 0.5pts each way (3 places) @18/1 (19.0)

Andrea Vendrame 0.25pts each way (3 places) @200/1 (201.0)

Posted 18.21 BST Sat 8th May 2021