Stage 21 – Senago > Milano ITT (30.3km)

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Stage 20 Result

1st Damiano CARUSO (25/1); 2nd Egan BERNAL (11/2); 3rd Dani MARTÍNEZ (50/1); 4th Romain BARDET (66/1)

Recommended:

João Almeida 3pts win @4/1

Koen Bouwman 1pt each way (4 places) @16/1

Antonio Pedrero 1pt each way (4 places) @20/1

Michael Storer 0.5pts each way (4 places) @40/1

Jan Hirt 0.5pts each way (4 places) @50/1

Simon Carr 0.5pts each way (4 places) @125/1

Chapeau or no (chapeau)?

No chapeau. There were nine up ahead when Team BikeExchange took it up only 50km into the stage. They were helped later by Deceuninck–Quick-Step and Trek–Segafredo, and ensured that the stage would again be raced hard and fast to try to soften up and isolate some leaders. Team DSM – for Bardet – upped the pace even more 8km from the top of the first climb and kept pushing on the descent to open up a 20secs advantage. Bilbao and Caruso bridged in the valley and maintained the gap halfway up the final ascent. Caruso pulled away in front to secure a very popular win, with Martínez again doing a stellar job towing Bernal – who to be fair never looked in trouble – safely up to finish second on the stage and, barring accidents, a place on the top step in Milan.

Preview

A virtually pan-flat individual time trial into Milan to end this year’s Giro which ought to favour, unsurprisingly, strong time trial specialists.

There are a few tricky corners in the last kilometre which those gunning for the stage and GC contenders will have to look out for. Luckily, the forecast is for dry, sunny weather throughout the afternoon which should help negotiating them a bit less stressful.

Barring any serious incident the podium looks set, though we should see a tight battle for a top five spot with just over a minute separating four riders.

Contenders

Ahead of the opening day time trial in Turin there were a few question marks over the form of Filippo Ganna. It’s fair to say he put those to bed with another dominant display, taking possession of the maglia rosa for the second year in a row, and his performances as a domestique for Ineos throughout the Giro have been just as impressive. So, Ganna comes into the final stage looking to double up – in fact this would be five out of five Giro time trial victories (and indeed Grand Tour as he’s yet to compete in the Tour or the Vuelta).

We often don’t know if there are ailments or niggles or if the accumulation of three weeks of racing has left a rider energy-sapped and ready for home. The reality is probably most riders are currently experiencing one if not all of these symptoms. But assuming Ganna performs somewhere that vaguely resembles his current form, he’ll win, and the heavily odds-on prices about him will be justified.   

As a betting prospect we have to look elsewhere, but in the knowledge that we’re almost certainly playing for second or third. 

The form time trialist coming into the race was Decueninck–Quick-Step’s Rémi Cavagna. “The TGV” was left disappointed after stage 1, finishing fifth, and the Belgian team are still without a win 20 stages later. Cavagna looked all over the winner of stage 18 when he powered away from a select group only to be caught by Alberto Bettiol at the brow of the final rise 5km from the line. At his best, he looks the only rider who could get close to Ganna and is available at around 5/1.

Bettiol himself is a very decent time trialist with several top tens in major races to his name. If this does come down to who has the best legs after three weeks of tough racing, then none are going better than Bettiol who is best priced at 22/1.

Deceuninck–Quick-Step’s hopes of salvaging a win do not just lie with Cavagna – João Almeida is also a top class time trialist and, if he’s still got something left in his legs, will no doubt go all out for this. The Portuguese has had a tough few days and his form just appeared to dip slightly on stage 20. Typically though, despite looking like he was going to crack at any moment, he battled on to finish fifth on the stage.

Even if the stage win is a big ask, Almeida does have something to ride for on Sunday – only 1mins 2secs separate himself in eighth and Romain Bardet in fifth, with Hugh Carthy and Dani Martínez in between. That kind of time deficit is very bridgeable over 33km – in fact, given the time trialing ability of those he’s chasing, it’s very likely.

Two Jumbo–Visma riders – Edoardo Affini and Tobias Foss – were standout performers in the opening TT and secured triple-figure odds surprises in second and third. Both youngsters have taken big steps forward in this Giro and have really excelled. Affini possesses a huge amount of power and could go well here, but this is the furthest he’s been in a three-week race and would be forgiven for not matching his performance on stage 1. Foss has secured a GC top ten with no real chance of moving up or down from his ninth spot – the Tour de l’Avenir winner will be making sure there are no mishaps after a tough week in the mountains.   

Who else could make the frame? Patrick Bevin, Jan Tratnik, Max Walschied are not without a chance, though increasingly these days time trials appear to be dominated by the bigger teams with greater R&D resources – the first seven riders home on stage 1 were all from Ineos, Jumbo–Visma, or Deceuninck–Quick-Step. 

Rémi Cavagna 1pt win @5/1

João Almeida 1pt each way (3 places) 16/1

Posted 21.53 BST Sat 29th May 2021

Stage 21 Result

1st Filippo GANNA (3/10); 2nd Rémi CAVAGNA (5/1); 3rd Edoardo AFFINI (5/1)

Recommended:

Rémi Cavagna 1pt win @5/1 – 2nd

João Almeida 1pt each way (3 places) 16/1 – 5th

Chapeau or no (chapeau)?

No chapeau. Ganna duly delivered but not without incident. A rear puncture in the last 2km meant a bike change and an anxious wait to see if the time lost would scupper his chances of bookending the Giro with time trial victories in a repeat of last year. Cavagna was on course to run him very close until he forgot about going round the last corner, instead a head-on collision with the road barrier ended any hope of stealing the victory. And it would’ve been a steal if we’re being honest – the right man won, chapeau “Top Ganna”. The unluckiest rider of the day was probably Matteo Sobrero – a stage 1 time trial pick of mine at 300/1 – whose progress was severely hampered by an AG2R team car inside the last kilometre, ultimately missing out on third place by a second.

As predicted, there was no movement on the podium, but João Almeida moved up to sixth on GC (missing out on fifth by fractions of a second) – what might have been had he not been pulled back for Evenepoel earlier in the race? We’ll never know, but wherever the Portuguese goes next year he’s sure to be a GC threat.

It was fantastic to see Egan Bernal get back to his best and we should see him again at the Vuelta later in the year to possibly become the youngest rider ever to win all three Grand Tours. A fully-fit Bernal competing against Roglič and Pogačar is a mouth-watering prospect, but we’ll probably have to wait till next year’s Tour for that to happen.

It’s been a tricky Giro to find winners – a third of the stages have been won by riders at odds of over 100/1 which even for the Giro is exceptional. And there have been plenty of hard luck stories (stage 6 Mollema @16/1, stage 10 Gaviria @11/1, stage 16 Pedrero @18/1, stage 18 Cavagna @22/1). Posts have been hit where ordinarily one or two would have flown into the top corner, but hopefully the previews have been informative and enjoyable. Thanks for reading, I appreciate the feedback, hopefully you’ll come back for the Tour de France in a few weeks – and we’ll get the bookies back!

El Patrón