Stage 20 – Vernabia > Valle Spluga-Alpe Motta (164km)

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Stage 19 Result

1st Simon YATES (7/2); 2nd João ALMEIDA (4/1); 3rd Egan BERNAL (5/1); 4th Damiano CARUSO (28/1)

Recommended:

Simon Yates 3pts win @7/2 – 1st

Romain Bardet 1pt each way (3 places) @70/1

Antonio Pedrero 1pt each way (3 places) @22/1

Diego Ulissi 1pt each way (3 places) @22/1

Harm Vanhoucke 0.5pts each way (3 places) @80/1

Chapeau or no (chapeau)?

Chapeau! It was clear pretty early that GC teams didn’t want a big group going clear, with a manageable breakaway of six riders finally settling down after about 40km. Team BikeExchange almost immediately took responsibility on the front and started pulling, later to be joined by Deceuninck–Quick-Step, ensuring that the stage was as fast and as tough as possible. Almeida attacked on the final climb with just under 7km to go, but he was caught and passed by Yates who was on another good day. Bernal, with the invaluable help of Castroviejo and Martínez, managed his losses well and is still in a strong position to take the win on Sunday.

Preview

We cross the border into the Swiss Alps for the final road stage of the Giro. The peloton will haul themselves over three back-to-back first-category climbs (23.7km at 6.2%, 8.9km at 7.3%, and 7.3km at 7.6%) ending at the Alpe Motta ski resort in what’s sure to be an action-packed climax. 

The first 50km are pretty flat and we can expect a strong breakaway to get clear – many riders appeared to save their legs on stage 19 and will want to get up the road here for a last chance of a stage victory.

Contenders

Simon Yates now lies third on GC, 2mins 49secs behind Egan Bernal, so if he wants to win the Giro – a place on the podium will be no consolation to the Brit – he’ll have to attack early. Bernal again showed a little bit of weakness on stage 19, but we don’t really know how vulnerable he is or if the rumours about his back flaring up again are true. Ineos are still super strong, so isolating Bernal will be difficult and of course an early attack can leave yourself vulnerable too.

So it looks like Yates has no choice but to attack on the penultimate climb, or even earlier, because taking back almost 3mins on the final ascent would be a challenge. This will make a breakaway win difficult, though we could see a very select group of GC leaders and breakaway remnants at some point on the final climb, and then whoever has something left in the legs can take the win.

Either way, all GC teams will want satellite riders up the road in that breakaway as insurance against their leader being isolated, and in the case of Team BikeExchange, to help hammer home any gaps before the climb up to Alpe Motta. 

Yates, Bernal, and João Almeida are the standout climbers left in this Giro, and unsurprisingly, they are the leading players in the betting market for the stage win at 5/2, 8/1, and 4/1 respectively. If it does come down to a GC fight, which I think is more likely than not, it’s difficult to envisage one of these three not winning. Yates is very short, Bernal is likely to ride quite defensively and does look vulnerable, and Almeida, amazingly, is still without a career pro win. The flatter sections on the final climb are in the Portuguese favour – he can use his power to grab a late win for the “Wolf Pack”. 

It’s the final road stage so we might as well play a bit of breakaway bingo and hope it stays away – it’s been the “Breakaway Giro”, so who knows?

A few stage hunters – Koen Bouwman, George Bennett, and Harm Vanhoucke – showed no interest in getting up the road on stage 19 and were spotted during the early skirmishes sat on the back of the peloton, presumably because they knew the tactics of GC teams would scupper any chance of the break staying away.

Jumbo–Visma team leader Tobias Foss is safely in the GC top 10 and is very unlikely to fall out of it, so both Bouwman and Bennett should get a pass for the breakaway. Of the two, it was actually the Dutchman who finished stage 19 the strongest in eighth alongside Romain Bardet and Hugh Carthy. He gets the nod as the first breakaway pick. 

Vanhoucke finished behind the main grupetto which is always tricky to judge – saving the legs or knackered legs? Interestingly, alongside the Belgian was EF Education–Nippo’s Simon Carr. Is the three-week tour finally taking its toll? Carr put in a great performance on stage 16, but looks to have struggled since. At triple-figure odds, let’s take a punt on him for a big day out in the Alps.

Movistar appeared keener on getting Einer Rubio in the break than their better climber Antonio Pedrero, who also finished nearer last than first. Again, we can only guess whether this was to save him or not. It’s unlikely that his legs have completely fallen off so quickly, so let’s assume it was an extra recovery day in preparation for a final assault here. Pedrero is also in … again.

I think DSM will hand out some passes on the team bus. They were unlucky on stage 18, with Nicolas Roche and Nikias Arndt in third and fourth. Nico and Niki unfortunately came up against an inspired Alberto Bettiol, who can put claims on being the standout performer of this Giro. Roche will probably want to get ahead and also possibly Michael Storer and Chris Hamilton. Of the three, Storer is on the best climbing form and is a pick.

Some other riders who put in good performances on stage 19, showing they’ve still got some legs are Felix Großschartner, Alessandro Covi, and Diego Ulissi, but the final pick goes to Intermaché’s Jan Hirt. He’s consistently done well when the road’s gone uphill, and if he can make the break, ideally with a teammate or two, is sure to be one of the strongest climbers there.

On balance, it’s likely to be the leading players that fight for the win. And if Bernal shows some frailty when the attacks start flying then we could be in for a very exciting stage. 

João Almeida 3pts win @4/1

Koen Bouwman 1pt each way (4 places) @16/1

Antonio Pedrero 1pt each way (4 places) @20/1

Michael Storer 0.5pts each way (4 places) @40/1

Jan Hirt 0.5pts each way (4 places) @50/1

Simon Carr 0.5pts each way (4 places) @125/1

Posted 21.31 BST Fri 28th May 2021