Stage 3 – Biella > Canale (190km)

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Stage 2 Result

1st Tim MERLIER (4/1); 2nd Giacomo NIZZOLO (14/1); 3rd Elia VIVIANI (20/1)

Recommended:

Caleb Ewan 2pts win @9/4 (3.25)

David Dekker 0.5pts each way (3 places) @18/1 (19.0)

Andrea Vendrame 0.25pts each way (3 places) @200/1 (201.0)

Chapeau or no (chapeau)?

No chapeau. Great work from Alpecin–Fenix on Grand Tour debut to deliver Merlier. Positioning was key and Lotto Soudal messed up big style, never getting Ewan anywhere near the front to challenge for the win. Groenewegen was the chosen sprinter for Jumbo–Visma and finished a good fourth, Dekker may be given his chance tomorrow. Gaviria went for a small gap inside his teammate Molano and slid along the roadside barrier; he was shaking his hand afterwards so we’ll have to see if he’s done any lasting damage.
Loss (-3.5pts)

Preview

The riders stay in the Piedmont region for the first hilly stage of this Giro. There are three categorized climbs all packed into the last 80km, as well as an uncategorized rise topping out with just 15km to go, making it an ideal attack point. Such a parcours makes it difficult to control the front of the race and looks to favour the puncheurs. 

The weather forecast for Monday is not great – rain for most of the day with the possibility of thunderstorms, which could make the descents a bit sketchy.

Contenders

We have to assume that, given how early we are in proceedings, even if the weather turns bad and there’s some confusion over responsibility on the front, there will still be enough motivation to bring back the break. 

The climbs they have to negotiate are not particularly long or tough but will be ridden hard to shake out some of the pure sprinters. A reduced group of some sort should contest the final, but attacks on the last climb, or even before, could cause chaos and make for a very unpredictable race.  

On paper this looks like a Peter Sagan day, with his renowned ability to get over short climbs and deliver a fast sprint. He was doing quite a bit of pushing and shoving in the final today – a fifth place finish wasn’t terrible but he was probably hoping for more. We can expect Bora–Hansgrohe to take responsibility and work on the front to control the break. Sagan is favourite for the stage at around 10/3 which seems a bit short given the number of random elements. 

What about today’s winner? Tim Merlier specializes in lumpier one-day classics races. He showed today that he has a lot of pure speed; if he arrives with the front group tomorrow then he’ll have a huge chance to land incredible back-to-back wins. But we have to factor in how much today’s win will have affected him – it’ll be a hugely emotional evening for Merlier, not to mention all of the press responsibilities he’ll have had to go through. I think for now, it’s best to stay off him.

Caleb Ewan stated before the race that he was not in the same climbing form that we saw in Milan-Sanremo, where he climbed toe-to-toe with the likes of Julian Alaphilippe and Wout Van Aert. After today’s disaster, Lotto–Soudal will be extra motivated to deliver their fast man. There aren’t that many opportunities for the Aussie to get his stage win, so he needs to make the most of every one. Ewan is available at a best price of 6/1.

We can expect Dylan Groenewegen to get dropped at some point when it goes uphill – although he showed well today, he’s never been known for his climbing ability, and I doubt he will even try to hang on. That should hand an opportunity to his fellow Dutchman David Dekker. He’s looked strong so far – in the time trial and as Groenewegen’s leadout man – and he should be rewarded for supporting his teammate with an option here. Dekker was third at Le Samyn last year (beating Nizzolo and Merlier) so can clearly get over some lumps. At a decent 40/1, we’ll go in again with Dekker.

Giacomo Nizzolo can’t be ignored – he showed well today and now has an agonizing ten second places in the Giro to his name, but no win. He can get himself over these climbs and be there in the final. But those second places … I’m not sure I want to get involved at around 15/2.

Fernando Gaviria at his best could be there – he confirmed that there was no lasting damage from his collision with the barriers and intends to compete for the win on stage 3 stating after the stage, “The team has faith in me and so tomorrow could be a chance to be a little luckier. I can’t wait.” The 40/1 available on him might look big after the race. 

If things get even more selective, then other names and types of riders come into play. Gianni Moscon is off the back of two wins at the Tour of the Alps and knows how to win from a reduced group. Primarily, he’ll be looking after his team leaders, Egan Bernal and Pavel Sivakov, but may be given licence to go for the win if conditions are right – certainly, it would be in line with Ineos’ new attacking ethos. At a decent 25/1 it’s probably best to stay onside with the Italian in such good form. 

The final climb has a double-digit gradient near the top and is a perfect launchpad for an attack. It’s tailor-made for an explosive rider like Diego Ulissi. The eight-time Giro stage winner has recently returned to racing after cardiac abnormalities similar to Elia Viviani. He performed well at the Tour de Romandie, and put in a good TT on stage 1 so clearly has some form. Could he possibly pull off a ninth Giro win? As for Viviani, it’s likely to be a little too difficult for him to be there at the end, and Simone Consonni is likely to be Cofidis’ chosen sprinter.  

Anyone who attacks on that final climb will still have 10km to the finish from the bottom of the descent – including a 500m double-digit spike about 5km out. That’s a fair distance and could give teams enough time to regroup and reel attackers in. 

Descending skills could be key and so Matej Mohorič has to be added as a man to watch. The Slovenian is a demon descender and will definitely be stage hunting on selected days.

Deceuninck–Quick-Step’s main job will be to protect Almeida and Evenepoel, but they have the guns to animate the race should they choose to. Rémi Cavagna will be smarting after his stage 1 disappointment and may want to put in an attack. If he gets 30secs, it’ll be difficult to peg back. Similarly, Denmark’s Mikkel Honoré is more than capable of exploding up a short climb and TT-ing his way to victory. Maybe even Remco Evenepoel himself will fancy a dig – he seems in the mood to have fun and take every opportunity that comes his way. If so, why not here? And if the race completely falls apart then there are few quicker from a small group than João Almeida. So Deceuninck have options should they wish to deploy them.

Given the profile and the weather forecast, this stage has the potential to be chaotic, with maybe 40 riders who might fancy their chances.

The betting markets were quite volatile when they first opened (eg. Merlier 7/2 out to 20s; Almeida 150/1 in to 28s) which gives an indication that nobody is quite sure how this day will play out. 

I think there are too many variables to back one of the sprinters at short odds. For this reason, I’m going for some small bets at bigger prices. 

Stage 3 Bets

Gianni Moscon 0.5pts each way (4 places) @25/1 (26.0)

Fernando Gaviria 0.5pts each way (4 places) @40/1 (41.0)

David Dekker 0.5pts each way (4 places) @40/1 (41.0)

Mikkel Honoré 0.5pts each way (4 places) @50/1 (51.0)

Posted 21.15 BST Sun 9th May 2021