Stage 4 – Piacenza > Sestola (187km)

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Stage 3 Result

1st Taco VAN DER HOORN (200/1); 2nd Davide CIMOLAI (50/1); 3rd Peter SAGAN (5/2); 4th Elia VIVIANI (50/1)

Recommended:

Gianni Moscon 0.5pts each way (4 places) @25/1 (26.0)

Fernando Gaviria 0.5pts each way (4 places) @40/1 (41.0)

David Dekker 0.5pts each way (4 places) @40/1 (41.0)

Mikkel Honoré 0.5pts each way (4 places) @50/1 (51.0)

Chapeau or no (chapeau)?

No chapeau. And no chapeau to the peloton either. Bora worked hard all day to maintain a manageable gap to the break, but in the last 15km ran out of men. UAE and Cofidis finally got organized and pulled for Gaviria and Viviani but they’d left it too late, falling 4secs short of Van van der Hoorn, who pulled off the win of his life. There weren’t the anticipated attacks on the final climb (or the bad weather that was forecast) which is an indication that the likes of Ineos and Deceuninck are very much focused on protecting their leaders, rather than chasing any opportunistic wins.

Loss (-4pts)

Preview

The first (sort of) summit finish and test for GC hopefuls. The final climb – the second-category Colle Passerino – actually tops out about 2.5km from the finish line, but at 4.3km at an average gradient of 9.9% (peaking at 16%) there’s sure to be a dust-up and time gaps.

The forecast is similar to Monday – rain, possible thunderstorms, but with stronger winds.

It’ll be interesting to see which teams take responsibility on the front, and how early in the stage. This lack of clarity, along with the profile and bad weather, makes a breakaway win possible. It’s a flat start for the first 70km, so if there’s a big scrap to get into it, will favour stronger rouleurs.

Contenders

First, the GC contenders – unsurprisingly, Simon Yates is favourite for the stage at around 5/1. Off the back of an impressive stage and overall victory at the Tour of the Alps in April, this sharp final climb suits him down to the ground. Yates is favourite for the overall win and will want to stamp his authority on the race, but will he want to be in pink so soon? 

As we know, it was just these types of finishes where he smashed up the opposition for the first two weeks of the Giro in 2018, only to lose his legs on the penultimate climbing day. He admitted that he’d burnt too many matches and vowed to race smarter in future. Yates knows the demands of a three-week race and will be wary not to go too deep, too soon. But if he’s feeling good, it will be difficult for him to resist going on the attack, and you can easily envisage Yates skipping off the front and taking a stage victory.

The form of Ineos Grenadiers’ GC hopeful and 2019 Tour de France winner Egan Bernal is not clear, having spent most of the last two months training at altitude back in Colombia. Still troubled by chronic back pain, he was managing expectations ahead of the Giro, however should be tuned up nicely for a tilt at the title. Bernal has been decent if not spectacular this year, but at anything like his best he’s a clear danger on a finish like this. Bernal is short enough at around 7/1 and to back him would be a leap of faith to some degree.

The two Deceuninck–Quick-Step men next – João Almeida and Remco Evenepoel both have potential here. Almeida, though perhaps not the standout climber amongst the main contenders, has an uncanny knack of staying in contact with the front of the race. If he’s there in a small group near the line, the Portuguese has a kick to finish it off. 

Like Yates, Evenepoel is perfectly suited for this final with an explosive uphill acceleration. We’ve seen that Evenepoel is in decent shape, but is he really in the shape to leave others in the dust? Filippo Ganna seemed to hint that he might be after the stage. Both Almeida and Evenepoel are around 12/1.

This is also right up Dan Martin’s street. He loves the steep stuff and looked as good as ever at the Tour of the Alps. After a disappointing time trial, Martin has time to make up and so should be looking to attack. In fact, his time deficit (40secs behind Almeida and Evenepoel) may even give him some leeway. You can get around 16/1 about the Irishman.

Other overall candidates to consider – Preston’s Hugh Carthy loves a steep incline and is never afraid to attack, though this might be a bit short for him. Astana–Premier Tech’s Aleksandr Vlasov looks on top form and will no doubt be there or thereabouts. And both Pello Bilbao and Marc Soler are coming off stage wins last time out. 

All of the GC hopefuls will know that if a weakness is exposed here at the first time of asking and significant time is lost, then they’re unlikely to be standing on the top step in Milan. It’s possible that a few who have been spoken of as possible winners may fall away and have to reassess their goals. Whilst this stage will not be decisive, it could put a serious dent into some riders’ hopes. 

But it’s very possible that we have a race within a race. There is no guarantee that when the attacks come from the GC men that they’ll be fighting it out for the stage. On paper, stage 4 has serious breakaway potential. 

Filippo Ganna is in pink but likely won’t be by the end of the stage. And so what motivation do Ineos have to drive hard on the front? And then which other teams take responsibility? We’ll have to see – it could be that BikeExchange for Yates, or Astana for Vlasov take the race by the scruff of the neck and put pressure on their competitors. But it’s more likely to be ridden quite conservatively, nobody wanting to show their hand too soon. 

For this reason, along with the parcours and the possibility of bad weather (though I think we all need to change our Italian weather apps after the strangely dry stage 3), makes a breakaway win a possibility.

Even at this early stage in the Giro we have around 60 plus riders more than 10mins off the pink jersey. Many appeared to deliberately lose time on stage 3 to gain a breakaway licence. If the break can be made up of half a dozen of these riders, then they could be allowed to go all the way.

So who are the candidates? Breakaway specialist Thomas De Gendt is an obvious one. So obvious though that he’s often shorter in price than he should be. You never know which stages De Gendt is going to target and can easily, and frustratingly, be backed off a cliff with little to show. And then of course when you give up on him, he goes off on one of his legendary rides. He’s sure to be in a few breakaways, and will probably land a stage win at some point – but will it be tomorrow? The 28s available is bigger than I expected. Am I going to be tempted in again …?

I actually prefer De Gendt’s Lotto–Soudal teammate Kobe Goossens. A good climber and future GC hopeful, the 25-year-old Belgian showed excellent legs at the Tour de Romandie (also in wet conditions) where he came away with the mountains jersey. If he can make the break, he has an excellent chance of finishing it off. At 66/1, he’s a bet. 

Another great climber who lost time on stage 3 was Felix Großschartner. Bora will be smarting after working all day and just missing out on victory, so Großschartner may be allowed off the leash to get the German team back to winning ways. He won the last mountain stage at the Tour of the Alps two weeks ago and has to be a pick.

Though primarily here to help Hugh Carthy, Simon Carr proved at Tirreno-Adriatico that he can climb with the best, beating the likes of Egan Bernal and Geraint Thomas on stage 4. He’s already over 10mins down which is unusual as I thought he may be targeting a high GC finish himself. So he’s either taking it easy to be in the best shape for the final week, or fancies getting in a break. If he makes one, then Carr has the potential to land a stage win on his Grand Tour debut. 

No doubt Giovanni Visconti will try to get in the break and chase a stage win and maybe the maglia azzurra. But at 38, the two-time Giro stage winner is likely to find one of the young guns too good for him. 

There are several scenarios that could play out, so the selections are split between GC and breakaway hopefuls. 

Stage 4 Bets

João Almeida 1pt each way (3 places) 12/1

Dan Martin 1pt each way (3 places) 16/1

Kobe Goossens 1pt each way (3 places) 66/1

Felix Großschartner 1pt each way (3 places) 18/1

Posted 22.05 BST Mon 10th May 2021