Stage 6 – Grotte di Frasassi > Ascoli Piceno (160km)

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Stage 5 Result

1st Caleb Ewan (10/3); 2nd Giacomo Nizzolo (9/1); 3rd Elia Viviani (10/1)

Recommended:

Caleb Ewan 3pts win @10/3 (4.33) – Won

Chapeau or no (chapeau)?

Chapeau! Ewan showed that for pure speed nobody can match him in this field. He did well to follow Viviani’s wheel who was brought through quickly by Consonni, almost got blocked next to the barriers, but showed amazing bike handling and power to time his run to the line perfectly. Nizzolo finished in his usual second (11th now in Giri), Merlier suffered a mechanical in the last 100m, and Groenewegen started too far back and finished 8th. The race was soured though when Mikel Landa (who showed so well in yesterday’s stage and looked one of the favourites for the Giro) hit a race marshal 3km out and had to leave in an ambulance. Maglia azzurra wearer Joe Dombrowski also went down but completed. Also, in a separate incident, Ineos’ Pavel Sivakov had his customary spill – he’s now out of GC contention.

Profit (+10pts)

Preview

The profile looks quite imposing with a total of 3,400m of climbing, but on closer inspection the categorized climbs may not produce the GC shake-up we’d like.

We have the second-category Forca di Gualdo around 80km into the stage which is long at 10.4km and averages 7.4%, and then the summit finish up to San Giacomo which is even longer at 15.5km, however the first 11km of that is relatively shallow at 5-6%, so any decisive GC move won’t happen until the final, steeper 4km.

With this in mind, a breakaway win is possible – the road rises from the flag favouring pure climbers in their aim to make the selection, and they’ll need those climbing legs to have any chance of taking away a win.

Contenders

Ordinarily, a summit finish would make you lean towards a GC stage win, but I’m not sure about this one. The race hasn’t quite settled down yet, with Israel Start-Up Nation’s Alessandro De Marchi currently holding the leader’s pink jersey, and their goal will be to hang on to it on this stage. When they take to the front, they’re likely to maintain a modest, manageable pace. A GC team like Ineos, BikeExchange or Astana will likely drive the pace hard into the final climb, but attacks won’t be launched until that steeper section 4km out. All of that is in the favour of the breakaway, though obviously it depends on its constituents and numbers. 

If GC teams bring the break back, who could play for the win? I don’t think we should read too much into the stage 4 results up the tricky Colle Passerino. It was a wet, cold and miserable day, and many would’ve been happy to get through it without any major time losses – something of course João Almeida failed to do.

Mikel Landa, Aleksandr Vlasov, Hugh Carthy, Giulio Ciccone, and in particular Egan Bernal (who was shortened to 13/8 favourite for the Giro after the stage) were the most impressive, but I don’t think that should be seen as the definitive climbing, or GC hierarchy. Of course in the case of Landa, his Giro is over after a horrible collision with a race marshal on stage 5. And with Bernal we’ll have to see how he manages his chronic back issues deeper into the race. I don’t think the likes of Remco Evenepoel, Dan Martin, or even Simon Yates will be particularly downhearted with their performance, despite losing 11secs. Yates may even have deliberately kept his book of matches dry in a jersey pocket.

For the break, we have to look at those riders at least 10mins behind on GC who are quality climbers.  

Lotto–Soudal did well on stage 5 to deliver Caleb Ewan in prime position to take the win. But they needed to use some of their engines to control the race, and that will also be the case on the flat stage 7 coming up. So I’m ruling out Thomas De Gendt and Kobe Goossens as breakaway artists for now; they will get their chances once Ewan has gone home. Goossens also had a little spill in the last 10km so may have a few bruises. 

However, another Lotto rider who appears to have been hanging around the back of the peloton saving energy is Harm Vanhoucke. The young Belgian was flying at last year’s Giro and looked a genuine GC threat for the first week. He faded, however, and has since indicated his wariness to go too deep, too early in a three-week race. But this time he’s not chasing GC and has already lost over 25mins; he might look to make this break and at a best price of 40/1 he’s in. 

Ecuadorian Jefferson Alexander Cepeda, known as Alexander, and not to be confused with his cousin, Jefferson Alveiro Cepeda, who rides for Caja Rural, was a hugely impressive fourth in the general classification last time out at the Tour of the Alps, beating the likes of Carthy, Sivakov and Bardet. He’s not here to ride for GC but to get into breaks on days with lots of climbing and hunt a stage win – unless he’s saving himself for the weekend, he’s sure to try for the break.

One man who made his intentions very clear before the Giro was Bauke Mollema – he said he planned to lose time as quickly as possible, then try to win a stage. Trek have been very eager to send men up the road, perhaps because their GC challenge with Nibali and Ciccone is a little tentative, so Mollema should get his chance. He’s a very classy rider, who knows how to win, and this is his first chance in this Giro. 

Mikel Landa’s devastating exit may change the race strategy for Bahrain–Victorious. Jan Tratnik is likely to be given licence again to get up the road as he did on stage 4, but he might find a few better climbers with him. Gino Mäder, who showed such good form at Paris-Nice earlier in the year (cruelly denied a stage victory by a sprinting Primož Roglič) may also be given an option, but with Pello Bilbao and Damiano Caruso still high up in GC it’s not a given. Bilbao now steps up as team leader (though Caruso is actually higher than him on GC) and at 40/1 for the stage is a good value cover should the break not have its day. He clearly suffered on stage 4, but leading into the Giro he was one of the form riders. If he can refind those legs, he has a chance to give the team a huge boost.

Similarly with Bora – Emanuel Buchmann is still close on GC and might prefer both Felix Großschartner and Matteo Fabbro in support, although either rider would be one of the stage favourites should they make the break. There were some reports that Großschartner had been a little ill which accounted for his lost time early in the race. But he seemed to put in a good effort on stage 4 so who knows. 

AG2R’s young Frenchman Clément Champoussin showed well in Romandie and had an impressive fourth (behind Bauke Mollema) at the Trofeo Laigueglia back in March. There’s 40s available about Champoussin who’d be a big danger if he gets in. FDJ’s Sébastien Reichenbach could also be a player. The former Swiss road champion has plenty of quality results in his palmarès, but is lacking that big Grand Tour win. 

Nicolas Roche, Jonathan Caicedo, Simon Carr, Rudy Molard and Luis León Sánchez also come to mind, but the latter two are probably a little close on GC (6-7mins), Roche will probably be in the services of his team leaders Jai Hindley and Romain Bardet for now, and similarly EF Education–Nippo have not shown the eagerness of last year to get in every break going – so Caicedo and Carr will likely be reigned in to help Carthy.

Stage 6 Bets

Bauke Mollema 2pts each way (3 places) @16/1

Harm Vanhoucke 1pt each way (3 places) @40/1

Alexander Cepeda 1pt each way (3 places) @40/1

Clément Champoussin 1pt each way (3 places) @33/1

Pello Bilbao 1pt each way (3 places) @40/1

Posted 20.48 BST Wed 12th May 2021