Stage 7 – Notaresco > Termoli (181km)

Profile

Stage 6 Result

1st Gino Mäder (40/1); 2nd Egan Bernal (10/1); 3rd Dan Martin (22/1); 4th Remco Evenepoel (20/1)

Recommended:

Bauke Mollema 2pts each way (3 places) @16/1

Harm Vanhoucke 1pt each way (3 places) @40/1

Alexander Cepeda 1pt each way (3 places) @40/1

Clément Champoussin 1pt each way (3 places) @33/1

Pello Bilbao 1pt each way (3 places) @40/1

Chapeau or no (chapeau)?

Mini-chapeau. It was a day for the break, just – Mäder was given licence to go up the road by Bahrain–Victorious, and with the help of his teammate Matej Mohorič was able to hold off the chase. Mollema was in the break but had to work very hard for several kilometres to bridge having just missed the decisive split. That wasted energy cost him in the final. There were GC splits behind, many suffering in the cold and rain again. The biggest GC losers on the day were Bennett, Hindley, Bilbao, and Nibali. Their team ambitions for the overall probably now lie with Foss, Bardet, Caruso and Ciccone respectively.

Preview

Apart from a jink inland where the peloton go up a short fourth-category climb, the riders hug the Adriatic coastline south along pretty flat terrain. 

So a stage for the sprinters … or is it? The key to this stage is in the final 2km. As well as five 90-degree bends on technical urban roads, there is a 12% ramp about 1.8km out that lasts for about 200m. The road then continues to rise gradually up to the line. 

Plenty of puncheurs will fancy getting a gap on this slope, whilst the sprint teams will try to hold it all together for their fast men.

Contenders

Caleb Ewan demonstrated on stage 5 why he is one of, if not the fastest sprinter in the world. His ability to negotiate tight gaps, get on the right wheel, and time his bullet-like acceleration is unequalled. Only Sam Bennett can probably match him for pure speed at the moment, and it’ll be great to see them renew their rivalry at the Tour later in the summer. An advantage that Ewan has over bigger, more powerful sprinters is his aerodynamics, and we often see him riding in slipstreams until the last 50m of a race. However, apart from requiring incredible skill to pull off, it’s also a lot easier in a headwind. This finish is predicted to be a tailwind which is not to his benefit. His organized leadout, the technical finish, and even the uphill drag to the line are in his favour though. Ewan is the most likely winner of this stage, but is his price of 5/2 value given the wildcard of that kicker?

Unfortunately, we haven’t yet seen Ewan and Tim Merlier go toe-to-toe in a sprint yet – Lotto’s leadout messed up on stage 2, and Merlier dropped his chain when in a decent position on stage 5. The Belgian has shown signs of weariness on the climbs and has confirmed as much in pre-race interviews, but he was still in there at the pointy end the other day so clearly has enough left in his legs to compete. If his team, Alpecin–Fenix, can keep him near the front for that last 2km, with the helping tailwind, he could get a jump on Ewan around the final bend and not come back. Merlier is second favourite for the stage at around 7/2. 

In a straight, flat sprint, Peter Sagan will often find a couple of riders just a bit too sharp for him. But on this uphill finish, around a tortuous final, the playing field is much more in Sagan’s favour. You can’t rule out the Slovakian getting his second Giro win here in this finish, though 5/1 is not particularly attractive. You can argue that it’s a “bet to nothing” to make the first three, but so many of the sprinters are at such a similar level that it’s not guaranteed. 

Giacomo Nizzolo managed to get a jump on the other sprinters on stage 5 and looked all over the winner until the “Pocket Rocket” pipped him on the line. If the Italian champion can be in position and time his sprint to perfection, then he can finally break his duck here. 

This uphill kicker followed by the rise to the line isn’t ideal for Elia Viviani. I wonder if Cofidis may give an option to his wingman Simone Consonni who’s a bit punchier for something like this. Consonni looked very fast when delivering Viviani to the front on stage 5 and you wonder where he could’ve finished riding for himself. It’s unlikely to be a decision made before the stage, but if Viviani slips back then Consonni might be given the green light to go for the line. 

One rider who loves these kinds of uphill drag finishes is Israel Start-Up Nation’s Davide Cimolai. He showed well on stage 3 into Canale, winning the sprint for second. Positioning though is often the Italian’s downfall. He and Patrick Bevin were sprinting each other at the end of that stage, but if Bevin sacrifices his own chances to position his teammate near the front before those vital turns, then Cimolai could go very close.

Another rider, and yet another Italian, who seems to be riding himself into form is AG2R’s Andrea Vendrame. Last year, Vendrame competed brilliantly in sprints and in the mountains – and I expect to see him in some breaks over the next two weeks. He rode well on stage 3 over hilly terrain that suited him, finishing 11th, though he’ll need a better sprint to finish higher here. At a big price, he’s worth a small interest.

Dylan Groenewegen’s train seemed to let him down on stage 5. If they underperform again here then he has no chance. Fernando Gaviria has shown good climbing legs which will help him in the final, but he doesn’t appear to have the raw speed to get his nose in front. 

Now, who might try and launch something when the road hits that 12% gradient? It’s so close to the line, and with the predicted tailwind past the flamme rouge, they won’t need much of a gap to pinch it. We’re looking for real punchy types – Diego Ulissi is the past master at this, but does he have the form to pull it off? 

When Ulissi won the first of his two stages at last year’s Giro on albeit a tougher, though not entirely dissimilar finish, the only men who could follow his move were Peter Sagan and Mikkel Honoré. The Dane is already twice a winner this year at Coppi e Bartali and the Tour of the Basque Country. If given licence by his team, he could jump away. So too his teammate Rémi Cavagna though Deceuninck have kept a tight leash on their men to ensure they’re in tip-top shape for the second, more demanding half of the Giro. Only Pieter Serry has been allowed up the road so far, though I’m not sure he’ll be doing it again anytime soon after somehow being shunted from behind by the BikeExchange team car. Thankfully, he got up again pretty quickly and managed to complete the stage.

This has the potential to be a chaotic final. There could even be some crashes, which of course we definitely don’t want to see. It’s likely to finish in a straight sprint, but the kicker adds a random element, and for that reason I don’t think we want to get involved at shortish prices with the leading sprinters. Better to have a few speculative punts for small stakes at big prices. 

Davide Cimolai 1pt each way @28/1 (4 places)

Andrea Vendrame 0.5pts each way @80/1 (4 places)

Mikkel Honoré 0.25pts each way @200/1 (4 places)

Rémi Cavagna 0.25pts each way @200/1 (4 places)

Posted 21.11 BST Thu 13th May 2021