Giro d’Italia 2023

Outright Preview

Contenders

A route that includes three time trials covering a whopping 73km (almost 50km more than last year’s edition) reduces the field of likely contenders to win the Giro d’Italia 2023. In many ways it self-selected the startlist of those looking to lift the trofeo senza fine at the end of May. None more so than the favourite, Soudal-Quick Step’s Remco Evenepoel, who has chosen this rather than a tilt at the Tour de France. It seems a logical and natural step for the Belgian prodigy and delays a Grand Tour clash with Tadej Pogačar and Jonas Vingegaard, the current outstanding three-week racers.

We were also denied the much-anticipated head-to-head between Evenepoel and Pogačar at Liège-Bastogne-Liège last week with the Slovenian suffering multiple wrist fractures in an early fall. Evenepoel went on to win, defending the title in typically dominant fashion with a long-range solo effort. And since taking his first monument at last year’s LBL, Evenepoel has ridden consistently at a high level, adding a Grand Tour win at the Vuelta a España and the world championship road race.

That Vuelta win put to bed doubts over Evenepoel and Soudal-Quickstep’s ability to deliver victory in a three-week Grand Tour. Notably, he also beat our second favourite, Jumbo-Visma’s Primož Roglič, though Roglič was coming off a tough Tour de France where he crashed early, dislocated his shoulder (which he popped back in himself at the roadside), before carrying on for another 10 stages and contributing a great deal to Vingegaard’s win. Roglič was resurgent at the back-end of the Vuelta before crashing heavily again, ending his race and a chance of dishing up a challenge to Evenepoel in the final stages.

A better form line is the Volta a Catalunya which served as a pre-Giro aperitivo with the two battling right through to the final stage in Barcelona. Ultimately, it was the Slovenian who managed to squeeze out a win by just 6secs and, tellingly, appeared to get under Evenepoel’s skin at times.

There was, however, no time trial in Catalunya and the abundance of them here tilts the scales towards Evenepoel, despite Roglič being no slouch on the TT bike himself. In Roglič’s favour – his greater Grand Tour experience may tell over the three weeks plus he’ll arrive with the stronger team which could pay dividends in the later mountain stages and leave Evenepoel isolated and vulnerable.

In short, it would be very easy to reverse engineer an obvious case for either prevailing, but at a best-price of 4/5 and 9/4 respectively neither are attractive from a betting perspective given the often high attrition rate of Grand Tours, and especially the Giro. No doubt several riders with eyes on the podium or a top 10 finish won’t even get to Rome or will have to redraw their race ambitions due to crashes, bad luck, illness, or even the dreaded Covid which has already ruled out home hope Giulio Ciccone. On balance, I’d rather be on Roglič but go in after the second time trial on stage 9 where he’s likely to be a bigger price.

But for two freak accidents (a badly parked police motorbike in 2017 and a bouncing bidon in 2020), Ineos Grenadiers’ Geraint Thomas could’ve bagged a couple of Giro titles already having started both of those editions near the top of the market. The Welshman tends to ration his racing these days in what is probably his final 18 months as a pro rider, but he’s experienced enough to peak at the right time as shown by his impressive (and surprising) third at last year’s Tour de France. He’s had a quiet start to the season due to an infection and was clearly still building his form at the recent Tour of the Alps where he worked in the services of Tao Geoghegan Hart, but he’s still a solid third favourite at 9/1 for this and it would be no surprise to see him challenging for the maglia rosa.

Geoghegan Hart himself has had a tough time since winning the Giro back in 2020 with multiple coach changes and illnesses but he looked back to his best in winning the Tour of the Alps. As a result, his price has plummeted for this to around the 12/1 mark and he’ll go in as a protected rider alongside Thomas. The likeable Londoner is a great ambassador for cycling, not just as a sport but for its impact on health and the environment and, following Jai Hindley’s win at last year’s Giro, a good placing here would end whispers that we got something of a false result in the ‘Covid Giro’ of 2020. Ineos come here with a super strong team with both Pavel Sivakov and Thymen Arensman potential top 10 riders or even higher if forced into a leadership role as happened to Geoghegan Hart three years ago.

Third in the Volta a Catalunya, albeit 2mins behind Roglič and Evenepoel, was UAE Team Emirates’ João Almeida. The Portuguese could’ve been closer but for an untimely mechanical on stage 2, but he looked strong throughout and was a close second behind Roglič in Tirreno-Adriatico in March. Almeida has a great record in the Giro, wearing the pink jersey for 15 days in 2020 as a 21-year-old before ultimately finishing fourth. He was forced to leave the Giro last year due to a Covid positive whilst sat in the same position. Talented in the pointy helmet, the extra time trial kilometres are in his favour and he’s value at a best price of 9/2 for a podium finish.

Almeida’s deputy in the Giro will be Aussie Jay Vine who’s been off the bike with a knee injury since February. Vine started the season in blistering form winning the Tour Down Under and the Australian TT championship, which will be handy here. He looked unbeatable when the road went uphill in last year’s Vuelta taking two stage wins and showing for the first time as a genuine Grand Tour contender - it would be wise for UAE to keep him in contention in case Almeida comes a cropper. Vine almost made the bet selection but his price has collapsed somewhat to around 33s, which is probably about right given the uncertainty around his form and leadership role within the team.

Others who could stake a claim for the podium include Bora-Hansgrohe’s Aleksandr Vlasov who is building his Grand Tour pedigree after a fourth in the 2021 edition followed by fifth at last year’s Tour despite being hampered by an injury. His form this year has been a little in-and-out but he did post a good second on stage 3 of the Tour of the Alps behind his teammate Lennard Kämna who is also aiming for a high GC spot instead of his usual stage hunting.

EF Education-EasyPost’s Hugh Carthy rode at a good level in the Alps, finishing runner-up to Geoghegan Hart, as did Bahrain Victorious’ Jack Haig who completed the podium, but you feel the race would have to fall apart somewhat for either to be challenging for top honours. Haig’s teammate Santiago Buitrago is also flying, backing up a strong showing in the same race with third at Liège-Bastogne-Liège. The 9/2 about a stage win for the Colombian is attractive though he may be riding as a mountain domestique for Haig and 2021 Giro runner-up Damiano Caruso.

In other markets, one rider we need to keep onside is EOLO-Kometa’s Lorenzo Fortunato. The Italian had his breakthrough win at the Giro on Monte Zoncolan in 2021 and this season is riding better than ever, staying with the best in the Alps and then picking up a win at the Vuelta Asturias. It’s unclear whether he’ll target a top 10 on GC or go stage hunting - events will probably make that decision for him - but he’s worth a play on either scenario. Hopefully, Fortunato can be lucky for us!

Outright Bets

To Win - Primož Roglič (after the stage 9 time trial - let’s see how the land lies and check his price)

Top 3 – João Almeida 2pts win @9/2

To Win a Stage - Santiago Buitrago 1pt win @9/2

Top 10 – Lorenzo Fortunato 2pts win @2/1

King of the Mountains – Lorenzo Fortunato 1pt each way (3 places) @14/1

Posted 17.18 BST 3rd May 2023

Prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available on the Giro d’Italia at Oddschecker