Stage 1 – Monreale > Palermo ITT (15.1km)

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Preview

The rearranged Giro gets under way with a short 15.1km individual time trial from Monreale to Palermo in Sicily. 

It starts with a sharp 1.1km climb, the timing for which will produce the first maglia azzurra wearer, but then heads downhill and flattens off for the final 6km or so. It doesn’t appear to be too technical with largely wide, straight roads running into Palermo. 

This is obviously a great opportunity for the time trial specialists to wear the maglia rosa and will be a major season objective for these riders and their teams.

Contenders

Ineos Grenadiers’ Filippo Ganna produced a stunning ITT in the final stage of Tirreno-Adriatico last month which led me to back him at even money for the World Championships last week. Ganna actually went off around 11/8 following support for his teammate Rohan Dennis who it was thought might be favoured over the longer distance. In the end it wasn’t even close, with only Van Aert and Küng getting within 30 seconds of the Italian. Ganna of course also has the extra motivation (not that he needs it) of this being his home tour – it would actually be his fourth victory in a row on Italian soil after the Nationals, Tirreno-Adriatico and the relocated Worlds at Imola. Unsurprisingly, there is nothing anywhere near odds against available for Ganna now for this – he’s 4/11 best price. 

Rohan Dennis is next in the betting, and considering how convincingly Ganna beat him at the Worlds on a course which should have suited him, makes little appeal at 11/2. Dennis will have a better chance in the ITTs later in the race once Ganna’s legs have been deadened a bit by the brutal parcours. 

The Australian is primarily here to provide support for Geraint Thomas in the mountains, the training schedule for which may have compromised his TT power a little. Thomas himself was impressive in the T-A and World TT, finishing fourth in both and appears to be getting better and better since his disappointing non-selection for the Tour de France. He appears to have refocused very well, and it’s not impossible that Ineos could finish with a 1-2-3 in Palermo (though I remember saying something similar about Jumbo Visma on stage 20 of the TdF!).

Lotto Soudal’s Victor Campenaerts is available at 13/2 and could make the frame. He had two good opportunities in last year’s Giro to take a win but failed to convert, was down in eighth at the Worlds last time out, and appears a step below Ganna at the moment. 

This will be a clear target for Britain’s Alex Dowsett whose major breakthrough came at the Giro. But that was seven years ago and similarly appears a step below the very best these days. 

One who is interesting is Sunweb’s Michael Matthews. He’s in top form, and I actually fancied him for the World Road Race last week at decent odds, but he just got disconnected from the group behind Alaphilippe and in the end won the sprint for seventh. A sprint between Matthews and Van Aert would’ve been interesting had he managed to stay in touch. That followed from his third in Milano-San Remo and although obviously not a TT specialist is still an accomplished one. This short distance should suit, and he might make the frame. He’s available at 20/1 but of course almost certainly just playing for a place. Ganna is no price but might as well start with a win (famous last words!).

Filippo Ganna 3pts win @4/11

Michael Matthews 0.25pts ew @20/1

Stage 1 Result

1st Filippo Ganna; 2nd João Almeida; 3rd Mikkel Bjerg

Recommended:

Filippo Ganna 3pts win @4/11 – won (+1.1pts)

Michael Matthews 0.25pts ew @20/1 – lost (-0.5pts)

Chapeau or no (chapeau)?

Chapeau! Ganna delivered with another brilliant TT performance in difficult, windy conditions. The strength and direction of the wind appeared to change throughout the stage and seems to have favoured the early and mid starters. Only Chad Haga from the late starters managed to make the top 20, and many GC hopefuls (Kelderman, Nibali, Kruijswijk, Fuglsang, Majka) lost a minute plus on Thomas. Campenaerts crashed on a bend and blasted the conditions afterwards as dangerous. For this reason, Dennis said he didn’t push it 100%, thinking about the amount of Giro ahead of him. Miguel Ángel López hit a bump in the road when his hand was off the bars and jerked into a street barrier – he’ll take no further part.

Total Stakes: 3.5pts; Profit/Loss: +0.6pts (+17.1%)