Stage 2 – Alcamo > Agrigento (149km)
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Preview
Nearly 150km, but the focus will most likely be all on the final 5km rise to the line. It averages around 5% though does touch 9% around 3km out which may act as a launchpad for attacks.
So, what kind of rider should be in contention for the win? Attacks from GC contenders are likely to be futile, and they’ll prefer to keep their powder dry for tomorrow and indeed the rest of the race which is back-loaded with plenty of brutal climbing days.
I don’t think the rise is necessarily too difficult for sprinter types to stay in touch with attacks and compete for the win. Matthews and Sagan have both shown excellent climbing legs lately – Sagan at the Tour and Matthews at the Worlds last week.
We also need to look at explosive riders who aren’t a GC threat – an Alaphilippe type who can forge a gap on the steepest part of the climb or are particularly adept at sharp finishes. Of course, Alaphilippe isn’t here so we’ll have to look elsewhere. Ulissi, Battaglin, Clarke, Haas and Felline spring to mind.
Contenders
The prices are out and Michael Matthews has been installed the 9/4 favourite. Matthews is in super form, but it’s not going to be easy for Sunweb to cover attacks whilst also making sure Matthews has enough gas left for the sprint. I came into the Giro thinking that I need to keep Matthews onside as he’s going to contend in a number of stages, but 9/4 seems short.
Diego Ulissi and Peter Sagan are next at 11/2 and of those two I prefer Ulissi. He’s off the back of two stage wins and the overall in the Tour of Luxembourg, albeit in lesser company, as well as a good eighth in Il Lombardia.
Next come two Deceuninck-Quick Step riders – João Almeida and Davide Ballerini. Almeida is a GC threat both for tomorrow – after his excellent second in stage 1 – and longer term, so unlikely to be given any leeway. Ballerini has some good results this year, is capable of staying in contention on the climb and makes some appeal.
Arnaud Demare is next and there are no riders who have shown better form this season – he just can’t stop winning, eight wins post-lockdown. In fact it was a shame he didn’t go to the Tour de France – it would’ve been great to see the French national jersey wearer competing for stages and maybe green. And I bet FDJ were rueing the decision too after Pinot went down hard on the first stage in Nice. We need to see if he’s been able to hold on to that stellar form he’s had since the beginning of August. An uphill finish isn’t ideal for him but he’s more than capable of pulling it off.
Another that makes some appeal is current British road champion Ben Swift – he could compete on his best form in this kind of finish and at around 100/1 is worth a nibble. In fact I think it’s a stage for keeping stakes low – it’s a tricky finish to judge. Will sprinters be battling out the finish or will someone nip away and steal it? Also, we haven’t seen anything yet to judge form.
Diego Ulissi 1pt ew (1/5 1 2 3 4) @6/1
Davide Ballerini 1pt ew (1/5 1 2 3) @14/1
Ben Swift 0.5pts ew (1/4 1 2 3) @100/1
Stage 2 Result
1st Diego Ulissi; 2nd Peter Sagan; 3rd Mikkel Honoré; 4th Michael Matthews
Recommended:
Diego Ulissi 1pt ew (1/5 1 2 3 4) @6/1 – won (+7.2pts)
Davide Ballerini 1pt ew (1/5 1 2 3) @14/1 – lost (-2pts)
Ben Swift 0.5pts ew (1/4 1 2 3) @100/1 – lost (-1pt)
Chapeau or no (chapeau)?
Chapeau! That worked perfectly. As thought, the climb was just a little tough for the sprinter types. The pace was red-hot going into the final climb with stage hopefuls and GC men battling for position. With about 2km to go, Valerio Conti upped the pace to set up his teammate Ulissi to attack, which he did at around the flamme rouge. Only Mikkel Honoré and Luca Wackermann were able to follow, gapping Matthews and Sagan. As the road flattened out Sagan was able to bridge and at that point looked favourite for the stage but Ulissi had left a little in reserve and was able to sprint away for a brilliantly executed stage win.
Total Stakes: 8.5pts; Profit/Loss: +4.8pts (+56.5%)