Stage 21 – Cernusco sul Naviglio - Milano ITT (15.7km)

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Preview

The riders arrive in Milan for the final stage of the race – a flat 15.7km ITT with the Giro title up for grabs. Tao Geoghegan Hart and Jai Hindley are equal on time, with Hindley wearing pink by virtue of being ahead on fractions from the earlier two TTs. Hindley beat TGH by 49s in the opening TT, but TGH turned the tables in the second, longer one by 1m15s and he must be favourite going into this one to cap a remarkable Grand Tour win.

Contenders

As for the stage it’s very difficult to look beyond the Ineos pair of Rohan Dennis and Filippo Ganna, with Ganna having the edge from the first two TTs. Dennis however has got better and better over the course of this Giro and TTs apart is in the form of his life. Whether that will relate into another stage win is debatable with this shorter distance favouring the powerful Italian. Either way it looks like yet another stage win for Ineos in what has turned out to be a very successful Grand Tour after the worst of starts. 

It’s about 16/1 bar the front two – Mikkel Bjerg who impressed so much in the first week appears to be going backwards and might struggle to find one last big effort. Victor Campanaerts will be motivated as he is still without a contract for next year – he came close to winning stage 19 to show that he still has some legs left; perhaps he can fill the podium spots after disappointing in the first two TTs. 

João Almeida has shown tremendous fighting spirit and has had a fantastic Giro. He’s finished in the top 10 of half the stages so far and will have his eye on overhauling Pello Bilbao to take fourth spot in the GC. 

One man who has impressed in the TTs and got a well deserved stage win is Josef Černý – he’s available at around 40/1. He showed amazing strength to hold off a powerful chase and maybe he can complete the stage podium. 

There are a host of other strong riders and TT specialists in and around 50/1 – Thomas De Gendt, Alex Dowsett, Brandon McNulty, Jonathan Castroviejo, Chad Haga, but they’re surely all competing for a podium spot. Just 18 seconds behind Campanaerts in the Stage 14 TT was Tao Geoghegan Hart, and who knows – the motivation to take the overall win might produce a standout ride; he’s around 200/1 and worth a small fun interest.

Tao Geoghegan Hart 0.25pts ew (1/5 1 2 3) @225/1

Stage 21 Result

1st Filippo Ganna; 2nd Victor Campanaerts; 3rd Rohan Dennis

Recommended:

Tao Geoghegan Hart 0.25pts ew (1/5 1 2 3) @225/1 – lost (-0.5pts)

Chapeau or no (chapeau)?

No chapeau. As expected Ganna crushed the rest with an imperious display even though he said he was holding back a bit (like he said on stage 1). Dennis was pipped by fractions into second by Campanaerts but the day belonged to Geoghegan Hart whose win never really looked in doubt and in the end took the Trofeo Senza Fine by 39 seconds.

I’ve ended the Giro a few points up. I seemed to be chasing from the get-go, that’s the way it goes – it’s still been a fantastic few weeks and we have to be thankful we even got to the end, which looked very doubtful at times.

Total Stakes: 124.0pts; Profit/Loss: +4.4pts (+3.5%)