Stage 20 – Alba > Sestriere (190km)

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Preview

The riders were supposed to be tackling the Colle dell’Agnello and the Col d’Izoard, but due to Covid restrictions over the French border they instead have three ascents up to Sestriere in what looks like a much easier stage on paper. 

The Sestriere climb averages just over 6% and so to make any difference it will have to be ridden hard. And there’s no reason to suggest it won’t be – Ineos look to be peaking in the third week and surely will try to put the heat on Sunweb early and try to break Kelderman.

It’s possible that Geoghegan Hart will want to defend his podium spot, but I don’t see it. Brailsford has been keen for Ineos to light up races and maintain a dynamism that they lacked during so many years of dominance and I think they’ll line up an attack today. 

This of course is also the last chance for many riders and teams to win a stage and no doubt a strong breakaway will form, though that might take a while as it’s pretty flat for the first 90km. 

It’s hard to see Ineos or even Bahrain Mclaren waiting until the final ascent; they’ll hit it either on the first or the second, which means the breakaway will need a big lead in order to stay away.

Contenders

Jai Hindley at 5/1 has looked very strong and was able to stay with Tao Geoghegan Hart and Rohan Dennis on the Stelvio. Had he stayed with Wilco Kelderman on the climb and supported him on the descent and through the valley, Kelderman may have a bigger lead to defend now – they would at least have been able to help each other put their jackets on which neither successfully managed to do. But it was a tricky call and Hindley bagged the stage win and is in a better position to play as a foil today. 

In order to drop Kelderman, Dennis, Filippo Ganna et al will have to set a blistering pace at these smaller gradients and it really is touch and go whether it’s achievable. That said, Kelderman looks vulnerable and there for the taking. Geoghegan Hart is around 13/2 and what a sight it would be if he manages to take the stage win and the pink jersey – it’s definitely doable. 

Pello Bilbao seemed to find his legs again on the Stelvio and who’s to say Bahrain Mclaran aren’t the ones to go to the front early as they surprisingly did in the Tour for Mikkel Landa. It didn’t work out for them that day but earned a lot of credit for trying, and they might be in the mood to try again today, Bilbao is not out of overall contention by any means. 

This is uncharted territory for the top 5 in GC so who knows how they’ll deal with fatigue and pressure at this stage. That top 5 is completed by João Almeida at 2:16 who also is not out of contention for the podium and can benefit from any capitulations up front. 

We have the usual suspects for the break - Ben O’Connor, Thomas De Gendt, Ilnur Zakarin, Tanel Kangert, Ruben Guerreiro, Sergio Samitier and Antonio Pedrero. Of these, O’Connor is the clear standout but is very short at around 9/1. 

Another very impressive rider on the Stelvio was Slovenian Domen Novak, and it might be worth a small interest in case Bahrain Mclaren send him up the road and the breakaway stays away – it also doesn’t seem to be a terrible idea to just back Slovenians blind these days. It’s the last road stage so I might as well back Kangert off the cliff, but I expect this to be a GC shootout.

Tao Geoghegan Hart 2.5pts ew (1/5 1 2 3 4) @6/1

Pello Bilbao 1.5pt ew (1/5 1 2 3 4) @14/1

Domen Novak 0.5pts ew (1/5 1 2 3 4) @40/1 

Tanel Kangert 0.5pts ew (1/5 1 2 3 4) @28/1

Stage 20 Result

1st Tao Geoghegan Hart; 2nd Jai Hindley; 3rd Rohan Dennis; 4th João Almeida

Recommended:

Tao Geoghegan Hart 2.5pts ew (1/5 1 2 3 4) @6/1 – won (+18pts)

Pello Bilbao 1.5pt ew (1/5 1 2 3 4) @14/1 – lost (-3pts)

Domen Novak 0.5pts ew (1/5 1 2 3 4) @40/1 – lost (-1pt) 

Tanel Kangert 0.5pts ew (1/5 1 2 3 4) @28/1 – lost (-1pt)

Chapeau or no (chapeau)?

Chapeau! Great stage – what does it matter if the mountain isn’t super tough if you ride it as hard as Ineos did today? Another man of the match performance from Rohan Dennis, he looked like he could drop both Geoghegan Hart and Hindley at times. DCQS helped animate the stage with three up the road – Ballerini again doing an amazing job and great fighting spirit from Almeida. The rest limited the damage but Ineos did what they needed to do, split the field apart and Tao finished the job off really well.

Total Stakes: 123.5pts; Profit/Loss: +4.9pts (+4.0%)