Stage 3 – Enna > Etna (150km)

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Preview

The first big day for the GC guys with a lumpy looking stage that ends in a 20km climb on the slopes of Mount Etna. The last time the Giro went up Etna two years ago, it finished in a 1-2 for Mitchelton-Scott – Chaves followed home by Simon Yates – although they use a different ascent today. 

The gradients are steady for the first 15km or so when it levels off before a section of around 14% inside the last 2km. We can expect this will be where a decisive move is made, and we’ll be looking for guys with a punchy finish. 

It’s unlikely that this climb will shake out any of the leading GC contenders, but with it being up and down all day even before they hit the big climb, you wouldn’t want to have bad feelings in the legs or you could easily lose a minute plus. Fuglsang especially might be exposed having lost his best two climbing super-domestiques – Miguel Ángel López and Alexandr Vlasov – in the first two stages , which is a huge blow. However, that’s not too dissimilar to what happened to Pogačar at the Tour who lost Formolo and Aru early – and look what happened there!

Contenders

Prices are out and unsurprisingly Simon Yates is favourite. He has previous on this climb, is in flying form and has that explosive style that may make the difference near the top of this climb. That said, Mitchelton-Scott will be wary of letting Yates go too deep too soon. He dominated the first two weeks of that Giro in 2018 but paid for all of the attacks in the final few stages, and it cost him the overall win. He may decide to follow attacks here and keep his powder dry for later. Plus, his price of around 5/2 is plenty short enough.

Jakob Fuglsang and Geraint Thomas are next at around the 6/1 mark. Fuglsang’s Astana are already two short, and he struggled a bit in the TT – a watching brief on him tomorrow. Thomas is clearly going well but I’m not sure this finish is ideal for him; he might get gapped a little when more explosive riders attack. 

João Almeida is clearly flying with a second and sixth already in the first two stages. He will not only have eyes for the stage but also the pink jersey which will be up for grabs tomorrow. At around 6/1 I think he has to be included. 

Vincenzo Nibali knows this climb like the back of his hand and a few years ago would have been a clear favourite. At 35 he’s not the force he was but despite not having shown much this season will clearly have timed his form to peak now. This may be his swansong and what better way to go out than a win on Etna – he has to be in the list. 

Another rider of interest is Valerio Conti. He made the difference on stage 2 stretching the field on the steepest part of the climb and may be given his own shot today for a buoyant UAE. Conti is probably not a GC threat and so may be allowed to go free. 

There are plenty of other top drawer climbers who’ll be there at the final but for my final pick I’m going to go a bit leftfield. Two years ago, Mitchelton-Scott used Estaban Chaves as a foil for Yates and was able to get a gap and win. Lucas Hamilton comes off the back of an impressive Tirreno-Adriatico, winning the stage into Cascia. As a non GC threat, he wouldn’t necessarily be followed and would allow Yates to sit in. He’s worth a small interest I think at around 150/1. Conti and Hamilton also give us an option should they get in a breakaway which does have a chance today.

João Almeida 2pts ew (1/5 1 2 3 4) @8/1

Vincenzo Nibali 1pt ew (1/5 1 2 3 4) @20/1

Valerio Conti 1pt ew (1/5 1 2 3 4) @25/1

Lucas Hamilton 0.5pts ew (1/5 1 2 3 4) @150/1

Stage 3 Result

1st Jonathan Caicedo; 2nd Giovanni Visconti; 3rd Harm Vanhoucke; 4th Wilco Kelderman

Recommended:

João Almeida 2pts ew (1/5 1 2 3 4) @8/1 – lost (-4pts)

Vincenzo Nibali 1pt ew (1/5 1 2 3 4) @20/1 – lost (-2pts)

Valerio Conti 1pt ew (1/5 1 2 3 4) @25/1 – lost (-2pts)

Lucas Hamilton 0.5pts ew (1/5 1 2 3 4) @150/1 – lost (-1pt)

Chapeau or no (chapeau)?

No chapeau. That turned out to be a lot more dramatic than predicted. The two big favourites for the Giro lost time, Thomas decisively so with what appears to be a hip problem after a spill in the neutral zone – he lost 11 minutes. But Simon Yates too surprisingly cracked on Etna losing around three minutes – we’ll see if there is a reason why. With so much carnage there was no order to the chase and at times looked like every man for himself. Michelton-Scott, Trek and Bora all took it up for their leaders, but no team has the kind of dominance we saw from Jumbo-Visma during the Tour. That should make for exciting if disorganised racing for the rest of the Giro. The lack of order allowed two from the breakaway – Caicedo and Visconti – to stay away. Kelderman managed to drive away on a flatter section to win the race of GC favourites. Nibali and Fuglsang looked the pick of what was left.

Total Stakes: 17.5pts; Profit/Loss: -4.2pts (-24.0%)