Stage 5 – Mileto > Camigliatello Silano (225km)

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Preview

A long, hilly stage that ends with the first-category Valico di Montescuro from which they descend 12km to the finish line. The climb is long at about 25km and averages 5.6% but there is a section that touches 18% where we are likely to see some attacks. 

Whether the GC men battle for the stage, a non-GC rider attacks successfully from the peloton, or it’s a breakaway day is tricky to say. We saw on Mount Etna that not many teams appear to have the climbing firepower to control stages, especially now with Ineos and Mitchelton-Scott out of GC reckoning.

Contenders

This is a very interesting stage with different scenarios that could play out and that’s reflected by the prices which have Giovanni Visconti, Thomas De Gendt and Jack Haig as co-favourites at around 14/1. This is so open with numerous riders in and around the 20/1-33/1 mark and I think the staking plan needs to reflect that. The bookies clearly think that a breakaway has a real chance and I would agree – is there really a team that has the will and resources to chase all day to bring it back? 

Visconti did well up Mount Etna only to be denied a home win but he may be in a better quality breakaway this time. De Gendt has shown his eagerness to get into every break going both here and in the Tour, though hasn’t shown top form in either and doesn’t actually win that often.

Simon Yates isn’t yet out of GC contention in my opinion – so much can happen in the final week, but he both can’t afford to have another bad day and needs to start taking some time back at any opportunity. I think if he has the legs today then he’ll attack but that might not necessarily be for the stage. Certainly, Mitchelton-Scott won’t be controlling the peloton as they did two days ago, and they must be thinking of playing for the breakaway too. Lucas Hamilton is too close in the GC at only 2min43sec down to be allowed to go up the road but Jack Haig is not at 8min31sec. DS Matt White indicated that they’re going to try and put the ‘right man’ in the break – let’s hope that’s Haig and at around 12s that’s a bet. 

Wilco Kelderman is available at around 16s and the shortest of the GC men. It’s unclear if he’s the best climber out of them as the time he gained on Etna was mainly an opportunistic move on a flatter section that wasn’t chased down. 

UAE men Diego Ulissi and Valerio Conti are next at around 18s. The final climb might be a little tough for Ulissi, Conti makes more appeal but will probably be in the services of Brandon McNulty.

One team that will definitely be looking for the breakaway are Ineos – Tao Geoghegan Hart is too close on GC at 3min14sec; perhaps Jonathan Castroviejo could get up the road, he’s around 22/1, but I think I prefer Rohan Dennis at a much more attractive 100/1. 

The tactics of EF will be interesting – even though Caicedo is not going for the GC he is within sniffing distance of the pink jersey so they may want to give him full support today. If they are still in stage hunting mode then Ruben Guerreiro looks a good bet for a hilly stage. He came a narrow second to Mathieu Van Der Poel on stage 7 of Tirreno-Adriatico last month.

Third that day was another rider that interests - Italian Matteo Fabbro. He’s looked super strong on the front of the peloton already in this Giro but may well be in the services of Rafał Majka for now; he could get his chance later in the race but at 50/1 looks value for a small interest.

Jakob Fuglsang probably looked the strongest on Etna, and if it came to a GC fight would be difficult to beat – 22/1 or thereabouts are available on him. 

There are probably another 30 names you could add to possible winners of the stage especially if the breakaway goes the distance, but you can’t back them all.

Jack Haig 2pts ew (1/4 1 2 3 4) @12/1

Rohan Dennis 0.5pts ew (1/4 1 2 3 4) @100/1

Ruben Guerreiro 1pt ew (1/4 1 2 3 4) @ 18/1

Matteo Fabbro 0.5pts ew (1/4 1 2 3 4) @50/1

Stage 5 Result

1st Filippo Ganna; 2nd Patrick Konrad; 3rd João Almeida; 4th Wilco Kelderman

Recommended:

Jack Haig 2pts ew (1/4 1 2 3 4) @12/1 - lost (-4pts)

Rohan Dennis 0.5pts ew (1/4 1 2 3 4) @100/1 – lost (-1pt)

Ruben Guerreiro 1pt ew (1/4 1 2 3 4) @ 18/1 – lost (-2pts)

Matteo Fabbro 0.5pts ew (1/4 1 2 3 4) @50/1 – lost (-1pt)

Chapeau or no (chapeau)?

No Chapeau. Anyone who says they picked Ganna for today’s stage is a liar. What a performance! Technically the breakaway won, but it was in the balance for a long time between the front group, chasers including Thomas De Gendt – who looked all over the stage winner at one point – and the peloton. There was a bit more organization than expected in the peloton – DQS took control at the start and pegged the gap at around four minutes and then Astana, Sunweb and finally Trek all took responsibility to bring the break back. In the end though the climb wasn’t quite tough enough which deterred any GC attacks and allowed Ganna to take the win.

Total Stakes: 30.5pts; Profit/Loss: -17.2pts (-56.4%)