Stage 6 – Castrovillari > Matera (188km)
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Preview
A “flat” stage but with plenty of ups and downs, most notably a third-category climb 26km from the finish and then a short 10% kicker 3km out. The sprint will be on a slight uphill drag.
Those two factors definitely make it more favourable for the Sagan, Matthews types rather than Démare, Gaviria and Viviani, but it’s going to be very difficult to keep it under control and avoid an explosive rider pinging off the front and denying the sprint finish.
Contenders
So far, Peter Sagan has proven to be strong on the climbs and fast in the sprint – he’s unlucky not to have a win already and is the right favourite at around 3/1.
Diego Ulissi was impressive on stage 2 and has the explosive qualities to gap the sprinters. Many riders might be stuck to his wheel this time, and it might not be as easy given the longer run to the line.
Michael Matthews has disappointed a bit so far – he couldn’t follow Ulissi and Sagan on stage 2 and got a bit out of position, then he didn’t have the legs on stage 4 – 4/1 doesn’t offer a lot of value.
This is probably a bit too tough for Fernando Gaviria – I think he’ll support Ulissi as he did on stage 2. It’s also probably a bit too tough of a final for Elia Viviani; Simoni Consonni may be protected by Cofidis for this.
Arnaud Démare could be involved in the sprint but I’d hope for a price that reflects that uncertainty, and I’m not sure 7/1 does.
Davide Ballerini has been super impressive so far this Giro. He came very close to a debut Grand Tour win two days ago and even yesterday in the mountains was doing a lot of work – he looks to be flying. Ballerini’s teammate Mikkel Honoré attacked with Ulissi on stage 2 and might want to try going up the road again.
One rider that loves an uphill sprint though doesn’t win that often is Davide Cimolai – he might like this finish and be worth an each way punt at a decent price.
The start of the stage is pretty tough which means a big breakaway might get away and be too strong to be brought back, so it’s worth having a play for that too. I think it’s worth staying onside with EF as they’re stage hunting and will ride aggressively so I’m giving Ruben Guerreiro another go who had a good dig yesterday but couldn’t quite make it up to the De Gendt group – had he done so he could easily have taken the stage.
Peter Sagan 3pts win @3/1
Davide Ballerini 1pt ew (1/5 1 2 3 4) @8/1
Davide Cimolai 0.5pt ew (1/5 1 2 3 4) @33/1
Ruben Guerreiro 0.5pt ew (1/5 1 2 3 4) @50/1
Stage 6 Result
1st Arnaud Démare; 2nd Michael Matthews; 3rd Fabio Felline; 4th Juan Molano
Recommended:
Peter Sagan 3pts win @3/1 – lost (-3pts)
Davide Ballerini 1pt ew (1/5 1 2 3 4) @8/1 – lost (-2pts)
Davide Cimolai 0.5pt ew (1/5 1 2 3 4) @33/1 – lost (-1pt)
Ruben Guerreiro 0.5pt ew (1/5 1 2 3 4) @50/1 – lost (-1pt)
Chapeau or no (chapeau)?
No chapeau. Bora worked well all day and kept Sagan in a great position right up until the last 500m. Sagan found himself at the front, the pace stalled, Démare – who’d been distanced – was able to carry speed from behind and hit the front, Sagan got squeezed and it was all over in an instant. Démare was helped by a strong headwind on the climb which allowed him to sit in and discouraged attacks, but it was impressive all the same – good luck to anyone else trying to outsprint him on stages that suit him even better! Cimolai was 5th, obviously.
Total Stakes: 37.5pts; Profit/Loss: -24.2pts (-64.5%)