Giro d’Italia 2024

We’re off! Or at least we will be by Saturday lunchtime.

Tadej Pogačar (1/4; 1.25), who had a successful spring classics campaign with impressive solo wins at Strade Bianche and Liège-Bastogne-Liège, is the overwhelming favourite to win the Giro d’Italia and a third Grand Tour title (after Tour de France victories in 2020 and 2021). It would set up a potential Giro d’Italia-Tour de France double – the first since Marco Pantani in 1998 – and looks a lot more doable following Jonas Vingegaard’s crash and subsequent injuries at Itzulia Basque Country a month ago. Should Vingegaard get to the start line, he’s likely to be below his best much like Pogačar appeared to be last year after his fractured wrist.

The list of general classification contenders lacks depth on paper but does offer a great opportunity for the likes of Ben O’Connor (25/1; 26.0), Antonio Tiberi (25/1; 26.0) and Cian Uijtdebroeks (30/1; 31.0) to get a breakthrough podium in a Grand Tour. For Geraint Thomas (7/1; 8.0), who’ll turn 38 on the final weekend, there’ll be a sense of unfinished business having been narrowly beaten by Primož Roglič last year and crashing out twice when well fancied. Fellow veteran Romain Bardet (20/1, 21.0) has looked in good form this season and must come in full of confidence, however, with all the usual caveats around accident and injury, this Giro looks like Pogačar’s to lose.

The sprint field on the other hand looks loaded – Olav Kooij, Tim Merlier, Jonathan Milan, Fabio Jakobsen, Biniam Girmay, Kaden Groves, Caleb Ewan, Phil Bauhaus, Alberto Dainese, Juan Sebastián Molano and Fernando Gaviria are all on the startlist in Turin, so if the GC race becomes a little predictable, we should at least have some very lively fast finishes to look forward to.

Stage 1 – Venaria Reale > Torino (140km)

Sat 4th May | Scheduled start: 13:50 CET

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Stage 1 Preview

The opening stage of the Grande Partenza around the Piedmont region of northern Italy is quite a trappy affair with a couple of late climbs that will favour those with a punch. As always, a fast finish could also be handy should a small group come to the line together.  

7km long at an average of 6.8%, the second-category Colle Maddalena will whittle down the bunch significantly, before the shorter but much more severe Bivio di San Vito climb which was a late addition to the parcours and could scupper the chances of sprinter-climber types taking the first maglia rosa. Over its 1km length, the gradient touches 16% and averages just below 10%. It’s crested just 3km from home before a fast descent to the line – riders will be thankful that a repeat of the heavy rain during Thursday’s team presentation is not on the cards.

Stage 1 Contenders

Despite this being a long three-week race, UAE Team Emirates may look to put on a show of strength over the opening weekend to deter any thoughts among others about winning the race overall. And perversely, by going hard early, this may allow them to conserve energy over the second half of the race – helpful with the Giro-Tour double on their minds.

Tadej Pogačar (4/5; 1.80) has the explosivity to drop everybody on the short, steep San Vito climb and can lay down a marker on stage 1. He’s not usually shy in grabbing opportunities that come his way and this, assuming his stellar spring form hasn’t dipped, looks an ideal finish for him. Also, for someone who does have one eye on the record books, it presents the rare possibility of leading a Grand Tour from start to finish.

Julian Alaphilippe (14/1; 15.0) has struggled since his crash in Liège-Bastogne-Liège two years ago and hasn’t been helped by criticism from his outspoken team boss Patrick Lefevre, but at his best this is a good final for him. He’s shown glimpses this season of a return to form, most notably at Milano-Sanremo, where he finished in the front group, and at last month’s Tour de Romandie.

Soudal Quick-Step have an excellent backup in Mauri Vansevenant (33/1; 34.0) who comes into this on excellent form with a fourth in Amstel Gold Race and sixth in Liège-Bastogne-Liège.

Aurélien Paret-Peintre (25/1; 26.0) sprinted to victory from a reduced group in the final stage of the Tour of the Alps a couple of weeks ago as Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale continued their stellar start to the season – they’ve already notched up more victories (12) than they did in the whole of 2023.  He followed that up with an excellent fifth at Liège-Bastogne-Liège and though he’s here to support Ben O’Connor’s GC ambitions, should be given some leeway to go for his own chances here.

Paret-Peintre’s teammate and fellow Giro stage winner, Andrea Vendrame (70/1; 71.0), is a fast man who climbs very well and showed his fine form a couple of weeks ago with a couple of near misses at the Tour de Romandie.

Dani Martínez (28/1; 29.0) twice showed Remco Evenepoel a clean pair of heels at the Volta ao Algarve in February. He’s another with a punch and a finish, however, we haven’t seen him since he was forced out of Tirreno-Adriatico with a knee injury back in March.

Jhonatan Narvaez (33/1; 34.0) had a breakthrough win from a breakaway in the 2020 Giro and showed some great early season form. Fellow Ineos Grenadier Filippo Ganna (80/1; 81.0) can survive a tough climb despite his size and would be one of the fastest should it come down to a reduced sprint.

Andrea Bagioli (40/1; 41.0) is another with a profile that suits this stage and as an Italian would love to be donning the pink jersey at the end of the stage, but he’s had a series of DNFs coming into this so is difficult to back with any confidence.

Romain Bardet (40/1; 41.0) has had a resurgence in form this season including an excellent runners-up spot in Liège-Bastogne-Liège two weeks ago. The final descent plays to his strengths and can be nippy on the line, so can’t be ruled out for this.

Christophe Laporte (40/1; 41.0) was drafted into the squad following Wout Van Aert’s crash in Dwaars door Vlandereen having missed much of the spring due to sickness. So his form is a little unknown, but at his top level this would be right up the European champion’s street.

Laurence Pithie (50/1; 51.0) has been one of the breakthrough riders of the year. The Kiwi followed up a win at the Cadel Evans Great Ocean Road Race at the start of the year with impressive performances in some of spring’s biggest races and leads Groupama-FDJ on Grand Tour debut. As a sprinter who can climb it would be no surprise to see his hands in the air at some point in this Giro and is a lively outsider for stage 1.

On balance, it looks like this could get quite selective, but it really depends on how hard the last 50km or so are ridden. Some of the faster guys will be hoping they can hang on to contest a reduced sprint, however, the short descent to the line makes it more likely that those who get a gap on the final San Vito climb will keep it to the end.

I think Pogačar will want this and look to double up on Sunday, but on price let’s go for Aurélien Paret-Peintre and take the four places available.

Stage 1 Bets

Aurélien Paret-Peintre 1pt each way (4 places) @22/1

Posted 20:22 BST Fri 3rd May 2024

Prices to win the stage are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available on the Giro d’Italia at Oddschecker

[Giro d’Italia stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]

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