Vuelta a España 2023

Stage 21 – Hipódromo de la Zarzuela > Madrid. Paisaje de la Luz (101.5km)

Scheduled start: 17:15 CET

Profile

Stage 20 Result

1st Wout Poels (18/1)

2nd Remco Evenepoel (11/8F)

3rd Pelayo Sanchez (100/1)

4th Lennart Van Eetvelt (28/1)

Stage 20 Bets

Andreas Kron 2pts each way (4 places) @14/1

Lennard Kämna 1pt each way (4 places) @22/1 – 8th

Marc Soler 1pt each way (4 places) @33/1 – 5th

Oier Lazcano 0.5pts each way (4 places) @66/1

Louis Vervaeke 0.5pts each way (4 places) @80/1

That looked good for a while with four of the picks making the mega-break of 31, then it couldn’t have gone more wrong. Main pick Kron suffered a mechanical before the penultimate climb and never got back in, Vervaeke was forced to ride for Evenepoel rather than play his own card, and Soler, who was one of the strongest on the climb, finished fifth in the sprint. Time for a long walk.

Stage 21 Preview

An evening start and whilst the GC leaders savour the moment and try to stay upright as they enter Madrid, it’s one last chance for the sprinters to grab a win. The route is a little undulating, but of more concern for teams shepherding a fast man are the hairpin bends where positioning will be key.

With so many tired bodies and potentially ragged leadouts, a late attack is never without a chance, but it ought to come back for a bunch finish. If so, the road bends to the right inside the final 300m before a deceptively tough uphill drag to the line.

Stage 21 Contenders

Kaden Groves (Evs; 2.00) didn’t actually go down but was forced to unclip and run through the carnage of the crash caused by his Alpecin-Deceuninck teammate Tobias Bayer on stage 19, losing the opportunity to add to his two stage wins that now seem so long ago. Things haven’t quite gone the Aussie’s way since those wins and his team is now depleted, but he remains the fastest sprinter in the race and, given a clear run, is very much the man to beat.

Juan Sebastián Molano (5/1; 6.00) won this sprint last year. However, he was actually the final leadout man for Pascal Ackermann and profited from the German’s failure to get over the top of him. He too appeared to be hampered in the crash and never got back on Rui Oliveira’s wheel, ending stage 19 outside the top 20. But we know these two work well together and a repeat of their performance into Zaragoza on stage 12 would see them go close.

Alberto Dainese (9/2; 5.50) continued his curate’s egg of a Grand Tour career on stage 19 – nowhere or winning. It seems taking the weight of expectation off his shoulders is part of the solution, but it’ll be harder for DSM-Firmenich to shirk responsibility of controlling the break this time.

Filippo Ganna (6/1; 7.00) came a close second on stage 19 with his early power launch and should again have the services of Heiduk, Fraile and Thomas to position him. However, this final is a lot more technical than the one into Íscar which isn’t great for him. A late attack against a tired peloton may be a better bet.

Marijn van den Berg (14/1; 15.00) was arguably the fastest finisher on stage 19 but again was a little far back to challenge for the win. However, his EF Education-Easypost leadout was a lot more organised and at least put him within firing distance, and the uphill drag is also in his favour. Basically, we’re going back in with him.

Edward Theuns (25/1; 26.00) has been pretty consistent and this is a decent finish for him. It would be no surprise if he made the frame at a decent price.

The potential for a random result is always there in the final stage of a Grand Tour. The likes of Ivan García Cortina (33/1; 34.00), Davide Cimolai (40/1; 41.00), Dries van Gestel (150/1; 151.00) and Geoffrey Soupe (150/1; 151.00) all have profiles that could benefit from a hard final and tired legs.

So, as it’s the final preview of this year’s Grand Tours, let’s add a cheeky one at big odds:

Hugo Page (80/1; 81.00) came into the Vuelta off the back of a breakthrough win at the Tour du Limousin. Granted, the young Frenchman is favoured by a much tougher parcours and he’s up against a higher level of rider here, but things might get very messy in the final and an early launch from a big power sprinter like Page might be enough to make the frame.

Stage 21 Bets

Marijn van den Berg 1pt each way (4 places) @14/1

Hugo Page 0.5pts each way (4 places) @80/1

Posted 21:01 BST Sat 16th Sept 2023

Prices to win the stage are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available on the Vuelta a España at Oddschecker

[Vuelta a España stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]

Stage 21 Result

1st Kaden Groves (EvsF)

2nd Filippo Ganna (9/1)

3rd Nico Denz (150/1)

4th Hugo Page (80/1)

Stage 21 Bets

Marijn van den Berg 1pt each way (4 places) @14/1 – 7th

Hugo Page 0.5pts each way (4 places) @80/1 – 4th

It did get messy in the end with Groves off the front with Evenepoel, Ganna and co for the last 30-odd kilometres – a group that was always going to be tough to bring back. They did, but too late. Page was best from the peloton which was bitter-sweet – if only they’d caught them a few hundred yards earlier! Van den Berg followed him home in seventh.

Summary

A race that could’ve got dull very quickly was livened up by the Jumbo-Visma inter-team politics. It was hard work to find a winner and ended with a small loss as things didn’t quite go our way. Hope you enjoyed the previews all the same – thanks for reading!

Total staked: 121.0pts; Total returned 114.5pts (-5.4%)