Vuelta a España 2022

Stage 10 – Elche > Alicante ITT (30.9km)

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Stage 9 Result

1st Louis Meintjes

2nd Samuele Battistella

3rd Edoardo Zambanini

Stage 9 Bets

3pts win Remco Evenepoel @4/1 – 4th

1pt each way (3 places) Mark Padun @16/1

0.5pts each way (3 places) Brandon McNulty @40/1

0.5pts each way (3 places) Thibaut Pinot @55/1

Evenepoel put it to the other GC contenders and now leads by over a minute heading into Tuesday’s time trial where he’s likely to extend it even further. Unfortunately for us the break stayed away, something Quick-Step were content with, contradicting what Evenepoel had said the previous evening. Should’ve remembered rule number one: never trust anything a cyclist says. Note that Padun finished very high up, ahead of some GC men, so his legs are good and we need to keep him on side for the next mountain break.

Stage 10 Preview

The verdant hills of northern Spain give way to the white beaches of the Costa Blanca for the Vuelta’s sole individual time trial between Elche and Alicante. The run is straight to the coast and then north along it with few bends or gradient changes to worry the riders. Winds off the beach could cause a problem but otherwise it’s flat and without technical difficulties, and should suit the specialists.

This second transfer of the Vuelta is ridiculously long considering we’re still in the same country, and the potential for post-rest day heavy legs is maybe greater than normal. So we may get the odd surprise, but probably not on the winner’s podium.

Stage 10 Contenders

Can we look any further than Remco Evenepoel for the winner of stage 10? The boy is on fire and, despite his small stature, excels on the time trial bike. Madrid is still two weeks away and things could still fall apart but so far the Belgian is answering any questions over his potential as a Grand Tour rider very emphatically indeed. He’s no price for this – around 1/3 – which is no betting prospect, so we have to look for those that might fill the podium spots.

Primož Roglic has never lost in individual time trial in Spain – a five-year streak of eight races. Due to Evenepoel being heavy odds-on favourite, Roglič is 9/1 for this, which seems big, and then again doesn’t. How do we read the first week for the three-time defending champion? Is he still building his form steadily after weeks off the bike? Or is he still suffering from his injuries and was rushed back too soon? For the sake of the race, we hope the former. And it could turn into an absolute humdinger in the final week if Rog is on the charge and Remco on the downturn. The TT may give us an indication of which way it’s going to go.

Given his form coming in – including a breakthrough general classification win at the Tour of Poland earlier this month – Ineos’ Ethan Hayter has had a quiet Vuelta so far. He hasn’t threatened on any of the flat or hilly stages and hasn’t been involved in any breakaways. But this is a favoured terrain for the double British national time trial champion, and we can expect him to challenge for the top 3. He’s second favourite at around 11/2, however, that isn’t a great each way play if we’re assuming the winner is a lock.

Rohan Dennis doesn’t quite look in the form he did less than two years ago when he was pretty much the strongest climber in the Giro d’Italia and delivered Tao Geoghegan Hart to a Grand Tour win. But there’s often a compromise – involving muscle and weight – between climbing domestique and time trial specialist. He hasn’t been that present around Roglič on the climbs but does come in as the Australian and Commonwealth time trial champion. Maybe it’s a sign of a shift in focus and potential for a good result here.

Second behind Dennis at the Commonwealth’s was actually Bahrain Victorious’ Fred Wright, albeit after a spill from Geraint Thomas, which show what diamonds this lad has in his legs right now. He’s twice been close to a stage win at this year’s Vuelta, following up from his impressive performances at the Tour de France, but he should save his legs for breakaways in the last two weeks and a stage win we all want to see.

DSM’s Thymen Arensman put some big names behind him in the TT at the Tour of Poland earlier this month. But it was on a climb rather than the flat stuff we have here. Still, the young Dutchman has been very solid throughout this Vuelta and we shouldn’t be surprised by what he can produce. There’s 12/1 about him.

It doesn’t seem too long ago that Rémi Cavagna was challenging Filippo Ganna for the title of best time trialist in the world. But the Frenchman suffered a horrendous training ride crash at the end of last year that almost left him paralysed. So it’s great to see him pulling hard again at the front of the peloton and with a real shout of making the top 3 here. The 28s on him is tempting but he was beaten by Bruno Armirail in the French nationals which suggests there’s still some scope for improvement and the Groupama-FDJ man isn’t the worst shout in the world for an each-way squeak at 125/1.

Of the others, we have Brandon McNulty and Lawson Craddock at 200/1 and 300/1 respectively who are excellent time trialists with some standout results and could get involved, but let’s go for a return to form for Cavagna who at his best should challenge for the win though more than likely this time will be behind his Quick-Step teammate, Evenepoel. Plus a cheeky side bet on the double US time trial champion Craddock at those huge odds.