Vuelta a España 2022

Stage 11 – ElPozo Alimentación > Cabo de Gata (191.2km)

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Stage 10 Result

1st Remco Evenepoel (1/3F)

2nd Primož Roglič (9/1)

3rd Rémi Cavagna (28/1)

Stage 10 Bets

1pt each way (3 places) Rémi Cavagna  @28/1 – 3rd

0.25pts each way (3 places) Lawson Craddock @300/1 – 6th

Things were looking good for a long way with Cavagna sat in the hot seat and Craddock lying in second, but some of the GC men came over the top and Evenepoel got his expected win, crushing his rivals and putting an extra 48secs into Roglič.

Stage 11 Preview

This should be one for the fast men but the profile is by no means pan-flat and so it won’t be straightforward for sprint teams, many of whom are reduced in number, to keep it together for a bunch finish. Throw in the possibility of crosswinds as the peloton ride along the Andalusian coast and a breakaway or opportunist win cannot be entirely ruled out.

There’s a tight left turn within the village of Cabo de Gata in the nature reserve of the same name before a 4km straight run along a thin, exposed strip of beach. Coastal winds could be at their strongest at this point causing nervousness amongst GC and sprint teams alike leading to possible splits and a messy, unpredictable finish.

Stage 11 Contenders

Due to Covid-19 positives and general sickness doing the rounds, the attrition rate is getting quite high at this year’s Vuelta a España. Another eight riders did not start the stage 10 time trial and unfortunately for sprint fans one of those was Bora-Hansgrohe’s Sam Bennett. Having already won two stages, the former green jersey wearer would surely have gone into this stage as a solid favourite to bag a third.  

As it is, opportunity knocks for Bennett’s leadout man, Danny van Poppel, who rolled over the line last in the TT, saving his legs as much as possible. Coming into the race, some argued that it was Van Poppel rather than Bennett who should be backed for the sprints such was their disparity in form. Bennett silenced those doubters but had Van Poppel to thank for leading him out so powerfully for both his wins. He has a big chance here to land his second Vuelta win five years after his first and is an attractive double-figure price.

Alpecin-Decueninck’s Tim Merlier was luckless in the two flat stages in the Netherlands. He was bumped and taken wide on the final bend of stage 2 and then unclipped in the last 500m when in a good position to launch on stage 3. The lumps shouldn’t normally be a worry for the Belgian road race champion though he has been one of the first off the back when the road has kicked up in the first week which is perhaps an indication that he isn’t quite at his top level. In the absence of Bennett, Merlier is the favourite, but short at around 13/8.  

Second favourite but still quite short at 2/1 is Trek-Segafredo’s Mads Pedersen, for whom there are no form doubts. The green jersey wearer put a lot into the time trial in an effort to grab some more points having not been told that Bennett, his only real rival for the jersey, was a DNS. Had he known he would’ve taken it a bit easier, he said afterwards, and he could pay for those efforts on stage 11.

UAE Team Emirates’ Pascal Ackermann was well position on stage 2 but lacked the legs to challenge for the win and was then delivered to the front way too early the day after, ultimately finishing ninth. There’s no doubt he has the class and experience to win and comes in after getting his arms in the air at the Tour of Poland. Can the German rediscover his form of a couple of years ago? Maybe, but the 9/2 doesn’t appeal.

Like UAE, BikeExchange-Jayco are one of the few teams still at full strength, so can use those numbers to put Kaden Groves in a good position on that final straight. The Aussie has been one of the fastest finishers in the sprints but each time has launched his sprint from too far back to challenge. The potential for hustle and bustle in that final 4km is not ideal for Groves but there’s no doubt he has the speed to win.

Britain’s Dan McLay got up for an excellent third on stage 3 and pretty much matched the two in front – Bennett and Pedersen – for top end speed. In a Vuelta without perhaps the very best sprinters in the world and now further depleted, this is a great chance for McLay to land a first Grand Tour victory. He’ll certainly be easy to spot in Arkéa-Samsic’s fluorescent yellow change kit.

We’re halfway through a Grand Tour so fatigue will be setting in and things could start to become more chaotic. Who still has the legs after the first mountain stages? Merlier is the likeliest for this and buoyed by the two stage wins from Jay Vine will be looking to put their sprint disappointments behind them. But on price, and given that it could get a bit messy in that final, let’s go with Van Poppel.

Stage 11 Bets

1pt each way (3 places) Danny van Poppel @12/1

Posted 2035 BST Tue 30th Aug 2022

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