Tour de France 2024

Stage 10 – Orléans > Saint-Amand-Montrond (187km)

Tue 9th July | Scheduled start: 13:05 CET

Profile

Stage 10 Preview

Where: Through the Centre-Val de Loire region heading south towards the Massif Central mountains.

Stage Type: Flat

Weather: Mid- to high 20s, chance of rain and wind from the south-west forecast to touch 20mph – potentially enough for some splits.  

Climbs: None that are categorized though there is an unclassified bump that peaks about 7km from home that may invite some attackers to have a go.

Start: Flat

Finish: Technical enough – a 90˚ left-hander just after the flamme rouge followed by a tight double right-hander then a left at a roundabout leaving around 500m of slightly rising ground to the line.  

Stage suits: Sprinters and maybe classics specialists if it gets tough.

Breakaway chances: Unlikely. There should be enough sprint teams to keep the break in check and any crosswinds would probably reduce the break’s chances even more.

What will happen?: The flat start should see a smallish break controlled by sprint teams. Echelons look most likely when they head east after Issoudun (60km to go) into a cross-tailwind for the next 30km. Alpecin-Deceuninck, Lotto Dstny, Uno-X Mobility, Intermarché-Wanty and maybe even GC teams UAE Team Emirates and Ineos Grenadiers may put the hammer down and try to split the race up. It will end in some form of bunch sprint, either reduced or with the whole field depending on if we get any echelon action.

Stage 10 Contenders

Jasper Philipsen (13/8; 2.62) has finished second three times, albeit stage 6 ended in a relegation. Timing more than anything cost him the win on stage 8 so the legs are definitely still there, but Alpecin-Deceuninck will be getting panicky. They’re really not far away though and the leadout looks impressive when it comes late.  

Dylan Groenewegen (9/2; 5.5) got a lovely run in behind De Lie for his win on stage 6. The Jayco-AlUla leadout has been decent and there’s not that much between him and Philipsen on pure speed. Big chances again for the Dutch champion.

Mark Cavendish (9/2; 5.5) hasn’t got a blow in on any stage bar the one he won, though did win on this finish in 2013. Like on stage 5, probably needs plenty to fall his way and the price looks short enough.

Biniam Girmay (6/1; 7.0) now has two wins and a hefty lead in the points competition. Intermarché-Wanty’s leadout of strongmen clearly love riding for him and team spirit will be sky high. Unlikely to get caught out should there be crosswinds though would prefer a tougher rise to the line.   

Arnaud De Lie (10/1; 11.0) again looked to have the legs to win on stage 8 but got himself boxed in just when he needed clear air. Lotto Dstny will be another team looking to light it up should the wind be blowing and if the day turns especially tough, the Belgian champion has every chance.

Wout van Aert (22/1; 23.0) gave it a dig on stage 6 but, not for the first time, was almost put into the barriers by Philipsen. Did plenty of work on the gravel stage and his level is clearly rising but his own comments around his condition don’t inspire confidence. Best to keep the Van Aert card in our pockets for later but the price will look huge should he land a stage that on paper suits.

Fernando Gaviria (28/1; 29.0) came with plenty of speed on stage 6 to get up for third (after Philipsen’s relegation) though that can be deceptive if your nose hasn’t hit the wind.

Fabio Jakobsen (33/1; 34.0) has actually performed better than many thought with a fifth and a seventh to his name so far. Appeared to suffer a mechanical in the final on stage 6 but was quite a way off the front when it happened. Another top 5 is possible though others look faster at the moment.

Pascal Ackermann (40/1; 41.0) was positioned well by Israel Premier Tech under the kite on stage 8 and almost made the frame. Showed well again on the gravel the day after and is another who’d prefer a tough day out to level up the playing field.

Phil Bauhaus (40/1; 41.0) came from a long way back to finish fourth on stage 6 after a mechanical put paid to his chances the day before. To repeat the same line, is likely to make the frame at some point at a big price. Enough reason to make him the stage pick though?

Alexander Kristoff (50/1; 51.0) came third on the stage Cavendish broke the record and looks in good nick. The tougher the better for the veteran Norwegian.

Stage 10 Bets

As much as I’m against putting up a favourite, it feels like it must happen soon – Jasper Philipsen to finally get off the mark on stage 10.

Jasper Philipsen 2pts win @13/8 – 1st

Posted 21:24 BST Mon 8th July 2024

Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change

Stage 10 Result

1st Jasper Philipsen (13/8F)

2nd Biniam Girmay (6/1)

3rd Pascal Ackermann (40/1)

[Tour de France stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]