Tour de France 2024
Stage 11 – Évaux-les-Bains > Le Lioran (211km)
Wed 10th July | Scheduled start: 11:20 CET
Profile
Stage 11 Preview
Where: Heading south over the Massif Central mountains.
Stage Type: Mountain, but not high altitude.
Weather: Pleasant, mid- to high teens, possibility of showers.
Climbs: Six classified climbs totalling 4,350m of altitude gain over the 211km route – a big day out. The third last and penultimate climbs are likely to be the most decisive: the first-category Pas de Peyrol (5.4km at 8%) and the second-category Col de Pertus (4.4km at 7.9%).
Start: No steep ascents but barely any flat terrain for the first 80km which should help the break form. Could take a while though. Looks to favour strong rouleur types rather than lighter climbers so could see some piggy-backing.
Finish: Four classified climbs packed into the last 50km, the final one crested with 3km to go.
Stage suits: Climbers and puncheurs.
Breakaway chances: Big. Assuming it doesn’t contain any GC threats, it should be allowed to compete for the stage win. The day looks too long and uppy-downy for UAE Team Emirates, or any other GC team for that matter, to want to ride all day to keep it in check.
What will happen?: A big fight for the breakaway – teams and riders know this is an excellent chance of a stage win. Riders in it that are less adept at climbing will have to anticipate the race, so the ‘break of the break’ may be decisive. Behind, there should be some attacks from the GC contenders in the final 50km, but a breakaway win is favoured.
Stage 11 Contenders
Plenty:
EF Education EasyPost
Ben Healy (20/1; 21.0) won in Slovenia coming into the Tour and is looking super strong. Needs to win solo but has the perfect parcours to do it. A danger might be if a teammate gets ahead of him on the road and he’s pinned behind having to mark, but must have a big chance.
Richard Carapaz (16/1; 17.0) was the surprise yellow jersey wearer after stage 3 but faded badly the following day with Healy having to pull him up the Galibier. Questionable form after a disrupted buildup.
Rui Costa (80/1; 81.0) is wily enough to get a result even at 37. Picked up the Portuguese nationals jersey again before the Tour and had a good finish on the gravel stage so has the legs and the price is attractive.
Alberto Bettiol (80/1; 81.0) is another well suited to the stage and the price looks big.
Neilson Powless (125/1; 126.0) has had a disrupted season due to injury and hasn’t yet got back to his level of the last two years. Was active on stage 8, but is it too early to expect a Tour stage win?
Team dsm-firmenich PostNL
Romain Bardet (22/1; 23.0) took the yellow jersey on stage 1 and is riding on home roads. Has plenty of time now on GC to get some freedom and is sure to try for the break.
Oscar Onley (50/1; 51.0) has been in fine form this year though not seen much of him yet at the Tour. Is punchy uphill including in a sprint and the price looks attractive.
Ineos Grenadiers
Tom Pidcock (22/1; 23.0) has a free role for Ineos Grenadiers, the rest will probably ride in support of Carlos Rodríguez. Had a near miss on the gravel stage and these short climbs suit his punchy style.
Lidl-Trek
Giulio Ciccone (40/1; 41.0) would be a big favourite if in the break but at just 5mins 35secs off GC, is unlikely to be allowed up the road. A win from the GC men is more likely should it come back together but that’s not favourite.
Toms Skujiņš (125/1; 126.0) if not by Ciccone’s side, may be given a day pass for the break from where the super strong Latvian cannot be underestimated.
Lotto Dstny
Maxim Van Gils (33/1; 34.0) is in a similar mould to Pidcock – not the purest of climbers but more than capable over shorter lumps. As with the Yorkshireman, has a sprint if needed too.
Israel-Premier Tech
Derek Gee (25/1; 26.0) has brought his Dauphiné form (where he finished on the podium) to the Tour, but sitting only 4mins down in 9th surely makes him a marked man.
Stephen Williams (66/1; 67.0) can’t be underestimated despite not being a pure climber. At almost three times the price, offers better value than Gee.
Astana Qazaqstan
Alexey Lutsenko (40/1; 41.0) is a class act on his day and showed well on the gravel stage. Chances.
Harold Tejada (225/1; 226.0) has been steadily improving but likely to find a few better than him if he makes the break.
Uno-X Mobility
Tobias Halland Johannessen (40/1; 41.0) was one of the strongest in the break on the Galibier stage. Looks on the verge of a big result and this could be it. Has an excellent sprint finish should it be needed.
Magnus Cort (80/1; 81.0) showed in the Dauphiné that he’s a much better climber now than he was a few years ago. Would probably have to anticipate and get ahead of the break at some point, but the double Tour stage winner is more than capable of converting.
Bahrain Victorious
Pello Bilbao (50/1; 51.0) is still within 6mins on GC which is on the bubble of what should be allowed up the road. Has the smarts to finish it off if up there though.
Santiago Buitrago (50/1; 51.0) – ditto above.
Wout Poels (25/1; 26.0) has won stages at plenty of big races and will have the freedom to try here. Is his form at the level to do it though?
Intermarché-Wanty
Louis Meintjes (150/1; 151.0) as a lightweight climber may not be favoured by the rolling start but could get help to make the jump.
Georg Zimmermann (275/1; 276.0) gets up hills very well for a big lad though is probably another who will have to get ahead of the better climbers at some point in the final third of the race. The start suits and the price is big enough to have a small interest.
Movistar Team
Oier Lazkano (50/1; 51.0) stepped up a level as a climber at the Dauphiné and was the best out of the breakaway on stage 4. Fantastic fighter on the bike, has to be in the pot.
Gregor Mühlberger (70/1; 71.0) is climbing very well and, if not on domestique duty, has a squeak if in the break. Doesn’t have many big wins on his palmarès.
Javier Romo (125/1; 126.0) was climbing very well at the Dauphiné and had a big day out on stage 8. This stage suits him better and may give you a run for your money at triple-figure odds.
Jayco-AlUla
Simon Yates (25/1; 26.0) fell away tamely as a GC threat early in the race. Is he in poor form or just banking time for some stage hunting? The price is short considering the former is more likely.
Chris Harper (80/1; 81.0) is better value at much bigger odds now he’s off the leash from domestique duties.
Groupama-FDJ
David Gaudu (33/1; 34.0) is stage hunting after his GC run never got off the ground. Would be one of the favourites if in the front group.
Lenny Martinez (40/1; 41.0) was a surprise inclusion on the Tour teamsheet and early performances demonstrated why. If back to his proper level, is a big threat in mountain breakaways going forward.
Romain Grégoire (40/1; 41.0) is an excellent puncheur and has chances if reproducing his form from earlier in the year.
Valentin Madouas (125/1; 126.0) doesn’t appear to be at the level of a couple of years ago. The price looks big if he finds it though.
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Tadej Pogačar (4/1; 5.0) is too short considering a breakaway win is favoured, but is the most likely winner should it come back together.
Stage 11 Bets
Time for a bit of breakaway bingo. We need plenty running for us here, so let’s go in mob-handed with these boys:
Ben Healy 2pts each way (3 places) @20/1
Tom Pidcock 1pt each way (4 places) @22/1
Oier Lazkano 1pt each way (4 places) @28/1
Tobias Halland Johannessen 1pt each way (4 places) @40/1
Stephen Williams 1pt each way (4 places) @40/1
Oscar Onley 0.5pts each way (4 places) @50/1
Georg Zimmermann 0.5pts each way (4 places) @250/1
Posted 22:25 BST Tue 9th July 2024
Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
Stage 11 Result
1st Jonas Vingegaard (25/1)
2nd Tadej Pogačar (4/1F)
3rd Remco Evenepoel (20/1)
4th Primož Roglič (40/1)
[Tour de France stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]
