Giro d’Italia 2024

Stage 10 – Pompei > Cusano Mutri (Bocca della Selva) (142km)

Tue 14th May | Scheduled start: 13:05 CET

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Stage 9 Result

1st Olav Kooij (20/1)

2nd Jonathan Milan (3/1F)

3rd Juan Sebastián Molano (200/1)

4th Alberto Dainese (80/1)

Stage 9 Bets

Filippo Ganna 1pt win @12/1

Olav Kooij 1pt each way (3 places) @20/1 – 1st

Quinten Hermans 0.5pts each way (4 places) @40/1

Danny van Poppel 0.5pts each way (4 places) @66/1 – 5th

Giving the full five caps – chapeau Olav! A typically hectic Napoli finish with Narváez attacking late but getting caught inside the last 25m. Van Poppel just got squeezed out for a place, but let’s not get greedy.

Stage 10 Preview

A short stage of just 142km with pretty much all of the 3,000m of climbing packed into its second half. The first 40km are flat making it tricky for the lighter climbers to make the break and, unlike stage 8 which started with a couple of climbs, easier for UAE Team Emirates to police. It could take a while to go, maybe not even before the road starts to rise.

The finale however isn’t too dissimilar to stage 8 – the first-category ascent to Cusano Mutri (20.9km at 4.6%, max 14%) is long but not particularly steep which could neutralise attacks. The last 6km are the toughest, averaging over 7%, which looks more encouraging but general classification damage may be limited. This leans towards the break being given its day, but you never know …

Stage 10 Contenders

UAE got some criticism for pulling back the break and winning stage 8. Unwarranted in my opinion, however, it would be frowned upon if they swept up every mountain stage for the rest of the Giro and rightly so. Given the shallow gradients up to the line, they may be inclined to give the break a chance here, depending on who’s in it of course.

Tadej Pogačar (7/4; 2.75) was ‘struggling’ with some allergies on stage 8 which may give a glimmer of hope to his rivals, but it’s unlikely to stop him taking a fourth stage win should it all come back together. Whether it’s for the stage or not, he’s likely to attack in the last 5km and increase his lead at the top of the standings. But if the above reasoning is correct, he’s unbackable at that price.

Dani Martínez (16/1; 17.0) is the fastest to the line behind Pogačar, in fact I thought he might run him a bit closer on stage 8. Martínez doesn’t have a great record in three-week tours, only breaking the top 10 once. Of course he’s largely worked as a domestique, but he can be up and down and will be hoping there are no rest day legs on the last climb.

Ben O’Connor (33/1; 34.0) might actually be the second-best climber in race and the lack of sharp gradients is in his favour. He can’t match the uphill sprint of the two above, but if it does kick off early then he might find himself chasing Pogačar home.

Breakaway candidates:

There are no secrets now about who’s going well – we’re looking for good climbers with time on GC. But how much? 6mins behind Pogačar is irrelevant – there are many dangerous riders 3-5mins off the podium looking to leapfrog up the standings that teams will surely be reluctant to allow up the road. So looking further down could be the key …

Michael Storer (16/1; 17.0) rode in with the GC favourites having been caught from the break on stage 8 which was impressive. He’s clearly got some great legs but at less than 4mins off the podium falls into the category described above.  

Romain Bardet (22/1; 23.0) is a further minute back but will surely be a marked man. Both Bardet and Storer are good enough to ride back into the top 10 on merit but are either bothered about that? Bardet definitely isn’t – a stage win is what they’re after, so they could do with falling a bit further behind to buy a breakaway pass for another day.

Filippo Zana (28/1; 29.0) is on a similar mark but maybe isn’t seen to be as much of a podium threat as the two above. The form looks to be there and he could sneak into the early move, at which point he’d be one of the favourites to repeat his stage win from last year.  

Giulio Pellizzari (28/1; 29.0) didn’t make the break on stage 8 which was a bit of a surprise given how well he was going uphill at the Tour of the Alps. The young Italian, rumoured to be moving to Bora-hansgrohe next year, may give it a nudge this time.

Juan Pedro López (66/1; 67.0) has been suffering from a bit of sickness and now sits more than 6mins off the podium. That’s unfortunate for the man who won his first big stage race at the Tour of the Alps last month. The price is tempting, though the start isn’t ideal for him. Amanuel Ghebreigzabhier (225/1; 226.0) is a key domestique for López but with the other ‘El Patrón’ out of GC contention may be given some freedom here. But for some cramping in the final 5km, the Eritrean would’ve landed a nice place for us at last year’s Giro at a huge 400/1. Still hurts that one. As a bigger lad, the flat start is more suited to Ghebreigzabhier than López but they could try the old piggyback together.

Georg Steinhauser (16/1; 17.0) was mightily impressive as one of the main driving forces in the breakaway on stage 8. This is a big opportunity for the young German though the price looks a little stingy – it won’t if he wins of course. EF Education-EasyPost are sure to have representation and we forget that Esteban Chaves (40/1; 41.0) very nearly won the Giro back in 2016. It’s been a while since he’s had his arms in the air but his form looks decent. If not those two then Andrea Piccolo (50/1; 51.0) has been lively throughout the Giro and maybe the value out of the three.

Valentin Paret-Peintre (18/1; 19.0) and Aurélien Paret-Peintre (25/1; 26.0) have both impressed of late so take your pick. The older Aurélien has more Grand Tour pedigree and won a stage last year. As Valentin made the break on stage 8, the preference is for Aurélien this time at the bigger price.

Jan Tratnik (50/1; 51.0) tried for the break on stage 8 but then fell back into the peloton quite quickly. Sensing it was going to be a slog that wasn’t worth the effort, that may have been strategic rather than legs. The flat start is a positive as well as the final climb and Visma-Lease a Bike will have got a boost from Olav Kooij’s win after some dreadful luck.

Magnus Sheffield (100/1; 101.0) looked good on stage 8 and Ineos Grenadiers appear keen to give their riders winning chances in this Giro. Like Tratnik, the flat start is good for a time triallist and the final climb is just about within his capabilities. You don’t necessarily need to be the best climber in the race to win a stage like this, just the best out of whoever’s in the breakaway, and Sheffield might be that.

Davide Piganzoli (80/1; 81.0) looks a big price considering he climbed with the very best for a long time up Prati di Tivo and probably would be allowed up the road.

It looks like a breakaway day so we need to go in with plenty of bullets, but let’s have a GC saver just in case – it came in pretty handy on stage 8!

Stage 10 Bets

Ben O’Connor 1pt each way (4 places) @33/1

Aurélien Paret-Peintre 1pt each way (4 places) @25/1

Giulio Pellizzari 1pt each way (4 places) @28/1

Jan Tratnik 0.5pts each way (4 places) @50/1

Andrea Piccolo 0.5pts each way (4 places) @50/1

Davide Piganzoli 0.5pts each way (4 places) @66/1

Magnus Sheffield 0.5pts each way (4 places) @100/1

Posted 19:55 BST Mon 13th May 2024

Prices to win the stage are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available on the Giro d’Italia at Oddschecker

[Giro d’Italia stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]

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