Giro d’Italia 2024

Stage 11 – Foiano di Val Fortore > Francavilla al Mare (207km)

Wed 15th May | Scheduled start: 12:05 CET

Profile

Stage 10 Result

1st Valentin Paret-Peintre (18/1)

2nd Romain Bardet (22/1)

3rd Jan Tratnik (50/1)

4th Andrea Bagioli (600/1)

Stage 10 Bets

Ben O’Connor 1pt each way (4 places) @33/1

Aurélien Paret-Peintre 1pt each way (4 places) @25/1 – 5th

Guilio Pellizzari 1pt each way (4 places) @28/1

Jan Tratnik 0.5pts each way (4 places) @50/1 – 3rd

Andrea Piccolo 0.5pts each way (4 places) @50/1

Davide Piganzoli 0.5pts each way (4 places) @66/1

Magnus Sheffield 0.5pts each way (4 places) @100/1

Heartbreak for Tratnik who was odds-on favourite in-running for a lot of the final climb. The two behind looked beat but fair play to Valentin PP – he’s got some kick on him. Stage pick Aurélien PP almost nicked fourth which would’ve been a bonus but given the strength of the breakaway, a 50/1 place is a decent result.

Stage 11 Preview

This an interesting profile which has the potential to deliver a surprise. It starts with some hills – an unclassified rise after just a few kilometres followed by a tough third-category climb (8.4km at 5.4%) – before heading down to the Adriatic coast for a flat last 100km.

We’ve seen these kinds of stages before – a group of strong rouleurs gets clear and aren’t seen again. But this tends to happen more in the final week of a Grand Tour with a tired peloton and 100km is a heck of a long way for sprint teams to get organised and pull the break back.

So on balance a bunch sprint is favoured on a relatively straightforward finish – after a double right-hander there’s 3.5km of straight road for leadouts to order themselves in a likely headwind finish.

Stage 11 Contenders

Jonathan Milan (7/4; 2.75) looks the fastest sprinter with the best train. Lidl-Trek should agree with Alpecin-Deceuninck not to go too hard on the climbs to keep the other sprint teams sweet for the long, flat section. Milan has a tendency to launch early which could make him vulnerable in a headwind sprint.

Tim Merlier (7/2; 4.50) crashed hard on the stage 7 time trial and may still be feeling the effects. He might win, but for that reason is unbackable at the price.

Kaden Groves (12/1; 13.0) and Alpecin-Deceuninck have twice taken control of sprint days and twice mucked them up. They might need some allies for the long chase but know that a harder opening is better for their man, which is a dilemma.

Fabio Jakobsen (12/1; 13.0) has been nowhere this Giro, repeatedly being dropped when the road has gone uphill. We know he’s fast of course but can’t be touched for this.

Caleb Ewan (25/1; 26.0) appears to be going ok and makes more appeal at twice the price. So far he hasn’t been well positioned to challenge for a win – he needs his Jayco AlUla leadout to start gelling on a headwind finish which suits.

Alberto Dainese (25/1; 26.0) came closest on the tricky stage into Naples but is missing Alexander Krieger and Marius Mayrhofer who have both abandoned the race. He’ll be relying on Matteo Trentin to drop him off in a good position but so far, he’s found a few faster.

Phil Bauhaus (33/1; 34.0) should be there or thereabouts but you’re probably just playing for a place on a flat finish.

Breakaway contenders:

Stage 12 looks a better breakaway opportunity so many may save their legs for that, but these might give it a nudge:

Filippo Ganna (33/1; 34.0) is a sprint or break option though the latter is probably his best chance. He might try something here then rest up for Saturday’s time trial, though if this fella is up the road alarm bells should be ringing very loudly.

Benjamin Thomas (66/1; 67.0) has a stage win, a repeat isn’t out of the question.

Michael Valgren (66/1; 67.0) came close the other day and could try again for what would be an emotional win.

Andrea Vendrame (66/1; 67.0) can climb and sprint, and could give Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale back-to-back wins to continue their stellar season.

Edoardo Affini (100/1; 101.0) finished second in the Giro a couple of years ago on a similar parcours (when stage picks finished in a memorable 1-2-3) – could it happen again? Probably not.

Though not the most likely winners, both Groves and Ewan look like a bit of value. It’s probably 90:10 for a sprint, but that’s not 100, so let’s add a couple of break options just in case.

Stage 11 Bets

Kaden Groves 1pt win @12/1

Caleb Ewan 1pt each way (3 places) @25/1

Filippo Ganna 0.5pts each way (3 places) @33/1

Andrea Vendrame 0.5pts each way (3 places) @66/1

Posted 21:32 BST Tue 14th May 2024

Prices to win the stage are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available on the Giro d’Italia at Oddschecker

[Giro d’Italia stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]

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