Giro d’Italia 2023

Stage 10 – Scandiano > Viareggio (196km)

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Stage 9 Result

1st Remco Evenepoel (2/5F)

2nd Geraint Thomas (12/1)

3rd Tao Geoghegan Hart (50/1)

Stage 9 Bets

Brandon McNulty 1pt Top 3 @5/1

Jay Vine 0.5pts Top 3 @12/1

The picks were poor, but the result was overshadowed by news that Evenepoel is out with Covid. It explains his under-par performance in the TT and makes it more impressive that he still won it. It’s a big blow as the race was shaping up nicely. On the plus side, he might recover and animate the Tour de France. Get well soon Remco!

Stage 10 Preview

Although classified as a ‘flat’ stage, there’s plenty in the profile of stage 10 to suggest that a bunch sprint is not guaranteed. The riders will climb from kilometre zero up and over the second-category Passo Delle Radici before heading for the Tuscan coast and a finish in the seaside resort of Viareggio.

The first 90km are almost entirely uphill which will make it difficult to control the break, but with 70km of flat terrain before the finish line, there is a chance to bring it back. So this is very much in the balance and will depend on the size and makeup of the group up the road. It’s looking like another rainy one too which could reduce the motivation for teams to chase all day.

Stage 10 Contenders

There could be a feeling amongst the peloton that if a big enough group gets ahead then it won’t be coming back which could make for a very aggressive start. And in that scenario, teams that could be relied upon to do the chasing – Trek-Segafredo and Alpecin-Deceuninck – may feel it’s a better idea to get someone up the road themselves.

If Trek control, it’ll obviously be to set up Mads Pedersen for a second stage win and he’s the favourite at around 7/2. Indeed, Trek’s tactics will go a long way to deciding how this stage is won and the situation could be dynamic. They may first try to police a small break but if that’s not happening try to get someone up the road themselves – Natnael Tesfatsion and Toms Skujiņš are prime candidates as they both pack a fast finish.

There’s also the option for Pedersen himself to try for the break, especially with intermediate sprint points up for grabs at the 48km mark. This would of course trigger his maglia ciclamino rivals – Kaden Groves, Jonathan Milan and Michael Matthews – to also jump forward. They could all get in the break or none of them. If Groves doesn’t make it, then former Giro stage winner, Stefano Oldani, is another great option for Alpecin-Deceuninck.

EF Education-EasyPost’s Magnus Cort is building his form to peak for the Tour de France but has shown his eagerness to make the breakaway a number of times. Surely he’ll try again here and will be a big danger for the win if he does. Cort has to be in the selection pot at a best price of 11/1.

Simon Clarke just missed out on completing his Grand Tour stage collection in Napoli but he’ll keep trying and this is an excellent stage for him. Cort was rueing not being in the break with Clarke and De Marchi that day as he thought his extra legs could have taken them home. If they team up on stage 10, the break has every chance.

Clarke’s Israel-Premier Tech teammate Mads Würst Schmidt might also look to get ahead and, like Clarke and Cort, has a decent sprint to finish it off as shown in Tirreno-Adriatico a couple of years ago when he won from a break. The Danish champion is probably overdue another big win – could it come here?

Groupama-FDJ’s Jake Stewart is a good option as a fast man who can climb. Stewart wasn’t able to follow up his impressive spring campaign of 2021 (which included a second at Omloop Het Nieuwsblad) this year but has made a few breakaway efforts, so far unsuccessfully.

With Remco Evenepoel out the race, his Soudal-Quick Step teammates are now off the leash. At his best, a stage like this would be perfect for Davide Ballerini but his climbing has looked a little below par so may struggle to make the break if it’s super aggressive.

This one is a bit of a puzzle but with more of a guaranteed sprint day on Wednesday, the break could have its day. So let’s throw a few breakaway darts and hope one hits the bullseye!

Stage 10 Bets

Magnus Cort 1pts each way (3 places) @11/1

Stefano Oldani 0.5pts each way (4 places) @33/1

Jake Stewart 0.5pts each way (4 places) @50/1

Simon Clarke 0.5pts each way (4 places) @40/1

Mads Würst Schmidt 0.5pts each way (4 places) @28/1

Posted 23.25 BST 15th May 2023

Prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available on the Giro d’Italia at Oddschecker