Giro d’Italia 2023

Stage 11 – Camaiore > Tortona (219km)

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Stage 10 Result

1st Magnus Cort (11/1)

2nd Derek Gee (200/1)

3rd Alessandro De Marchi (150/1)

4th Mads Pedersen (7/2F)

Stage 10 Bets

Magnus Cort 1pts each way (3 places) @11/1 – 1st

Stefano Oldani 0.5pts each way (4 places) @33/1 – 6th

Jake Stewart 0.5pts each way (4 places) @50/1

Simon Clarke 0.5pts each way (4 places) @40/1

Mads Würst Schmidt 0.5pts each way (4 places) @28/1 – DNS (void)

A win though the break didn’t really look like making it until about 2km from the line. Incredible rides by all three in filthy weather – chapeau! On the other picks, Oldani was out the back early but survived the climbs better than Groves and fought out the sprint for 4th. Clarke had Gee up the road and Stewart finished well down so guessing he didn’t have a great day. Würst Schmidt is out sick in what is becoming an increasingly depleted peloton.

Stage 11 Preview

Continuing north along the coast past Genoa, stage 11 is the longest of this year’s Giro d’Italia at 219km. It’s a flat start which should, in theory, make it easier for sprint teams to police the front and allow a small break to get away. There are three categorized climbs but none too severe or close enough to the finish to worry the fast men.

It’s a slight downhill for the final kilometres so they’ll be coming in hot and will need to be careful around any technical sections especially with rain again forecast. There’s a right turn with 450m to go where positioning will be important and those who have any support left will have an advantage.   

Stage 11 Contenders

So one for the sprint teams, though their failure to reel in the break on stage 10 may make it harder to control the start with breakaway specialists smelling blood. Many riders will have had a wretched day and guessing motivation and sickness levels is impossible, but there ought to be enough sprint teams to work together and produce the result they want – a bunch finish.

Movistar’s initial commitment to Fernando Gaviria was impressive. However, the Colombian crashed out on the descent of the second-category climb trying to put on some warmer clothes. Speaking afterwards, he didn’t appear too badly injured but obviously it’s not ideal. Gaviria clearly has the acceleration and speed to win but his predilection for launching early hasn’t paid off so far. Until it does, he’ll continue to be an attractive double-figure price.

Trek-Segafredo’s Mads Pedersen was initially dropped on the climb which shows that he’s still not quite on top form. He managed to get back on and won the sprint for fourth place though, as always, it’s debatable who was giving it full beans for the minor places. Pedersen is the stage favourite for the umpteenth time at a best price of 5/2 which is almost backable.

Bahrain-Victorious’ attack on the descent of the climb looked ill-judged and Jonathan Milan duly crashed into a wall. He did recover to sprint out at the finish but, like Gaviria, might wake up a bit sore on Wednesday. The maglia ciclamino wearer has been super impressive in his first Grand Tour, especially when the road has gone uphill which he showed when seeing off Pedersen and Michael Matthews in the stage 10 intermediate sprint. With Andrea Pasqualon to put him in prime position, Milan has every chance to bag a second stage win.

As for Matthews, unless the stage turns significantly tougher than it looks on paper (which isn’t impossible), then he’s likely to find a few quicker. The same goes for UAE Team Emirates’ Pascal Ackermann.

Fellow Aussie Kaden Groves was dropped on the climb but, unlike Pedersen, did not get back on and finished over 20mins down. Alpecin-Deceuninck are now very depleted, losing Oscar Riesebeek prior to stage 10, meaning Groves is now lacking a sprint train. His recent sickness is another negative so he’s probably best dodged for this.

Were it not for a wheel slip on some road paint, Astana-Qazaqstan’s Mark Cavendish could have gone very close to a win on stage 5. He was one of the few to have a good day on stage 10 and his team worked hard trying to pull back the break. Things aren’t quite falling for Cav but you can’t write him off and the 14/1 about him is tempting.

According to Team DSM sports director Matt Winston, Alberto Dainese suffered a great deal in the cold on stage 10 and needed a few warm hugs at the top of the climb before getting going again. DSM were pulling for a while though so they clearly have faith in the Italian. Assuming he’s thawed out, Dainese could benefit from one of the better leadouts and should be there or thereabouts.

The temptation is to give Gaviria another chance at a decent price but his tumble is a worry. So let’s go for the man who should improve as others tire, especially in these atrocious conditions – Mads Pedersen.

Stage 11 Bets

Mads Pedersen 2pts win @5/2

Posted 22.40 BST 16th May 2023

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