Tour de France 2023

Stage 10 – Vulcania > Issoire (167.1km)

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Stage 9 Result

1st Michael Woods (16/1)

2nd Pierre Latour (200/1)

3rd Matej Mohorič (200/1)

4th Matteo Jorgenson (80/1)

5th Clément Berthet (300/1)

Stage 9 Bets

Jonas Vingegaard 2pts win @7/2

Michael Woods 1pt each way (3 places) @16/1 – 1st

Felix Gall 1pt each way (3 places) @20/1

Georg Zimmermann 0.5pts each way (5 places) @250/1

Just the four caps despite the winner as Woods was well-fancied, some of the big-priced places were gettable and it was actually a GC win that was predicted. It’s not always straightforward for the best rider to get the job done from a big break and the win almost slipped up the road. So maybe a bit of good luck to make up for the bad on stage 8. Gall looked to be trying to make the break, but was maybe marking for Berthet. Zimmermann didn’t try to get forward, but remains on the watchlist for another day.

Stage 10 Preview

Up and down all day with five classified climbs but without the severe gradients where GC favourites can make a difference, stage 10 looks set for a breakaway win. Those with stiff legs after the rest day could be in for a miserable time with two third-category climbs in the first 30km. Many will be praying that the break goes on the first one, but considering how many riders will be looking to get into it, that’s not guaranteed.

We could see a mega-break of 20 plus with a real mix of rider types – sprinters who can climb, rouleurs, puncheurs, climbers, classics riders – as it’s finely balanced who is most favoured by the parcours. After that, the race dynamics are likely to be complicated and catching the right split will be crucial. There’s a third-category climb (6.5km at 5.6%) which tops out 30km from home before the long descent into Issoire, both of which could be decisive. Either way, a decent sprint will probably be needed to take the day from a reduced group.

Stage 10 Contenders

Despite holding the yellow jersey, Jumbo-Visma are yet to win a stage, which includes, of course, Wout van Aert. He should’ve won stage 8, delaying his sprint too long, but accepted the blame and resolved to ‘wipe that zero away’ with a stage win at some point. Van Aert is looking ridiculously strong and we could see another of his cyclocross starts – accelerating from the gun up the first climb until the break is formed. The 4/1 for the stage win isn’t terrible but with so many moving parts, the break might become chaotic, so let’s look for better value elsewhere, even if it is only for the places.   

Van Aert will be very closely marked once in the group and may be lent on to do a lot of the work. So Jumbo-Visma are likely to want more riders with him and more cards to play. Christophe Laporte, Tiesj Benoot and Dylan van Baarle are all excellent options and potential winners should things not fall the way of their main man.

Mathieu van der Poel has had an excellent Tour so far, leading Jasper Philipsen to three stage wins as his super-deluxe lead-out. With a more straightforward flat stage coming up on Wednesday, Van der Poel should get his own chance here and is 7/1 second favourite to take the win.

EF Education-EasyPost are sure to have representation up the road. Neilson Powless will be after retaining the polka dot jersey, whilst Magnus Cort and Alberto Bettiol have perfect profiles for a day like this. Unusually, Cort has been quiet so far, presumably keeping himself back, but the 10/1 seems short enough given his invisibility. Bettiol, at more than twice the price, makes more appeal but hasn’t exactly lit the place up either.

British champion Fred Wright has been waiting for a stage like this and should be in the mix. So too his Bahrain Victorious teammate Matej Mohorič, though the Slovenian is off the back of a big day out on Sunday and may need more recovery time. Wright is slightly bigger – 33/1 to the 20/1 for Mohorič.

Had he not abandoned over the weekend, Quinn Simmons would’ve been a contender for this stage. As it is, Lidl-Trek have plenty others who’ll fancy getting involved. Mattias Skjelmose has dropped out of the GC hunt but appears to have recovered from his fall earlier in the race and tried to make the break on stage 9 (chased down by an apologetic Bettiol). Giulio Ciccone, Mads Pedersen and Jasper Stuyven are also possibles and it would be no surprise to see two or more of these riders up the road.

Like Skjelmose and Ciccone, Uno-X’s Tobias Johannessen is another GC-quality rider who’s now in full stage-hunting mode. The former Tour de l‘Avenir winner may hold himself back for the Alps later in the week but, if in the break, would be unlikely to be dropped on any climb and has a very good sprint.

Assuming he’s recovered from an unfortunate crash on a stage that suited him well in the Basque Country, Maxim Van Gils will also be looking to make the day’s break. An excellent climber with a fast sprint, this is definitely an opportunity for the young Belgian. He could probably do with some rouleur cover given the undulating nature of the course – Victor Campanaerts and Pascal Eenkhoorn would be great options and would give Lotto-Dstny cards to play later in the stage. They’re around 66/1, 80/1 and 200/1 respectively.

Israel Premier Tech will be chipper after Michael Woods’ excellent stage win up the Puy de Dôme and are sure to have strong representation in the break. Tour stage winners last year, Simon Clarke and Hugo Houle, two-time former stage winner, Dylan Teuns, and the impressive Corbin Strong could all get involved in the final at big prices.

Dauphiné stage winner Georg Zimmermann will surely look to get up the road, perhaps alongside his Intermarché teammate Rui Costa, who was in excellent form earlier in the season. Both can climb and sprint and are triple-figure odds for this.

You could make a case for half the peloton in this one and there could be some luck involved. It could be all about ‘la fuga de la fuga’, as Movistar’s ‘Chente’ García Acosta might say – who makes the break from the break. But let’s throw some darts at decent prices and hope we hit the bullseye.

Stage 10 Bets

Fred Wright 0.5pts each way (5 places) @20/1

Tobias Johannessen 0.5pts each way (5 places) @40/1

Maxim Van Gils 0.5pts each way (5 places) @66/1

Pascal Eenkhoorn 0.25pts each way (5 places) @200/1

Georg Zimmermann 0.25pts each way (5 places) @125/1

Posted 19:03 BST 10th July 2023

Prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available on the Tour de France at Oddschecker

[Tour de France stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]

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