Tour de France 2023

Stage 11 – Clermont-Ferrand > Moulins (179.7km)

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Stage 10 Result

1st Pello Bilbao (100/1)

2nd Georg Zimmermann (125/1)

3rd Ben O’Connor (200/1)

4th Krists Neilands (150/1)

5th Esteban Chaves (300/1)

Stage 10 Bets

Fred Wright 0.5pts each way (5 places) @20/1

Tobias Johannessen 0.5pts each way (5 places) @40/1

Maxim Van Gils 0.5pts each way (5 places) @66/1

Pascal Eenkhoorn 0.25pts each way (5 places) @200/1

Georg Zimmermann 0.25pts each way (5 places) @125/1 – 2nd

A full house of triple-figured placings on a mad stage. Zimmermann maybe could’ve taken it with different tactics in the final but a great ride all the same and difficult to begrudge Bilbao and Bahrain-Victorious their win – chapeau! Of the others, Van Gils was closest to making the break, scuppered when an early move was brought back. After 10 stages: Total staked: 34.5pts; Total returned: 46.9pts (+36.1%).

Stage 11 Preview

A designated flat stage but with over 2,000m of elevation gain, mostly in the first half of the race, there’s enough there to sting the sprinters’ legs. The route includes three fourth-category climbs, the biggest being the second which continues to rise 10km after the KOM point.

The final appears relatively straightforward with a right-hander after crossing the river in Moulins 2km out followed shortly after by a quick right-left combination, leaving a 1.4km straight, flat run to the line. This should end in a sprint, but as we get deeper into the race, nothing is guaranteed.

Stage 11 Contenders

The problem with being the dominant sprint team, as Alpecin-Deceuninck have proven to be during this Tour de France, is that other teams will lean on them to police, peg and pull back the breakaway in order to save as many of their own resources for the final. This can lead to a breakdown of relations and potentially jeopardise the break coming back at all. And as riders tire, especially after a brutally hard stage 10, a breakaway group of strong rouleurs do have a chance here.

On balance though, there should be enough motivation and firepower to control and bring it back together, in which case three-time stage winner Jasper Philipsen would be the overwhelming favourite to add to his tally. He’s 11/10 to do so. We saw some strange tactics from his team on stage 10 – at first pulling to seemingly set up Mathieu van der Poel for a reduced sprint, only for Van der Poel himself to go on the front. For Philipsen perhaps? That would’ve been a big ask and the effort finally petered out.

Lotto Dstny’s Caleb Ewan went out the back on the first climb of the day and didn’t look in a good way at all. He’s shown that he has the pure speed to compete with Philipsen, but that wasn’t encouraging and his price of 10/1 appears to reflect that. He made the time cut, however, in the last group on the road alongside Fabio Jakobsen, who still can’t be 100% after his crash on stage 4 and is as big as 12/1 for the stage win.

Finishing 9mins ahead of those was Dylan Groenewegen, surrounded by three of his Jayco AlUla teammates. After lacking a bit of zip in the early sprints, Groenewegen appears to be riding himself into this Tour and produced an excellent fourth on the uphill finish that ordinarily wouldn’t suit on stage 8. He’s second favourite at 7/1.

Having had a few efforts to get into the break, Wout van Aert was surprisingly dropped from the main group in the hectic start to stage 10 before following Van der Poel on that ill-advised attack late on. There were rumours he would leave the Tour after the stage to attend the birth of his second child which, to be fair, he said he might do prior to the Tour starting. Van Aert only heard of the rumours himself via the team radio near the end of the stage and, after calling home after the stage to check with his wife that nothing had ‘emerged’, confirmed that it wasn’t true. Should he compete in the sprint, which isn’t certain, he still appears to have power to burn and could threaten for the win at 10/1.

Lidl-Trek’s Mads Pedersen got his win on stage 8 on a finish that suited him well. Remarkably, that’s Pedersen’s fourth Grand Tour stage win in a row after last year’s Tour and Vuelta and this year’s Giro. Knowing that he’s going to struggle to beat Philipsen on a flat finish, might he try to get in the break? He initially had a few digs at getting in the break on the stage he eventually won and we’ve seen him do similar before, so it’s possible. This would trigger Philipsen to go after him to protect his green jersey, however, so it would soon get complicated. He’s 12/1 to win, whichever way he wants to try.

Like Pedersen, Biniam Girmay has a better chance as others become more fatigued. He finished a good third despite being hampered on stage 7 and was well positioned to compete the day after before dropping away with a mechanical. There’s a decent 25/1 available about the Eritrean to take a landmark win.

Buoyed by Pello Bilbao’s win, Bahrain-Victorious will again look to put Phil Bauhaus in a good position, something they’ve done brilliantly so far this Tour. Winning looks difficult but another place isn’t out of the question at 16/1.

Finally, after Mark Cavendish’s sad departure, can Astana Qazaqstan lift themselves to deliver Cees Bol to take his chance in the sprint? Placed twice at the 2020 Tour when riding for Team DSM, the Dutchman is a big 150/1 to win here.

It’s difficult to see past Philipsen, but on price, let’s go for Van Aert. It’s a risk as he may not even go for the sprint, but the 10/1 could look big afterwards. Fingers crossed he doesn’t get a phone call from home before the finish!