Tour de France 2022

Stage 18 – Lourdes > Hautacam (143.2km)

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Stage 17 Result

1st Tadej Pogačar (7/2F)

2nd Jonas Vingegaard (5/1)

3rd Brandon McNulty (100/1)

4th Geraint Thomas (33/1)

Stage 17 Bets

2pts win Jonas Vingegaard @5/1 – 2nd

1pt win Nick Schultz @20/1

0.5pts each way (4 places) Carlos Verona @33/1

0.5pts each way (4 places) Alberto Bettiol @50/1

0.5pts each way (4 places) Giulio Ciccone @50/1

It didn’t quite kick off on the final climb as anticipated which left Pogačar favourite in the sprint. And he played it cleverly, making out he was cooked before jumping on Vingegaard’s wheel. UAE deserved the win after great performances by Mikkel Bjerg and Brandon McNulty – chapeau! On the others, both Ciccone and Verona made the break (though Verona had a mechanical and dropped out of it) but the group that went clear had no chance with the pace behind. Bettiol tried many times but failed to get up the road. Schultz stayed with the main GC bunch and finished 11th.

Total Stakes: 87.0pts; Profit/Loss: +12.9pts (+14.8%)

Stage 18 Preview

The final mountain stage of this year’s Tour de France and unsurprisingly it’s a serious test. The profile is similar to stage 17 with most of the climbing packed into the second half of a relatively short route. After 60km they go up the hors catégorie Col d’Aubisque (16.4km at 7.1%) then take on the first-category Col de Spandelles (10.3km at 8.3%) before the hors catégorie summit finish up to Hautacam (13.6km at 7.8%).

Taken back-to-back, the race will be in bits by the end. This is the last chance for many teams to take something from the race and so the battle for the breakaway could go on for a while, perhaps even to the lower slopes of the Col d’Aubisque. As ever, whether it goes all the way will depend on tactics behind.

Stage 18 Contenders

Despite losing their best climbing domestique, Rafał Majka, before the start of stage 17, UAE Team Emirates’ Mikkel Bjerg and Brandon McNulty put in almighty performances to isolate Jonas Vingegaard. Surprisingly however, Tadej Pogačar didn’t launch an attack on the final climb. If he’d had the legs, he would’ve gone, so he must’ve sensed he couldn’t distance Vingegaard. In the end, he ‘settled’ for a stage win knowing he could outsprint the Dane.

Stage 18 is his last chance to reduce his GC deficit before the time trial on stage 20. So logic would suggest that UAE tactics will be pretty similar – drive the pace hard and drop the Jumbo-Visma support, but this time Pogačar has to attack. Vingegaard can ride defensively in the wheel and counter attack near the top of the final climb. This time, he won’t leave it till the sprint and is the GC bet at 3/1.

But plenty will want to be up the road for a final chance of glory. We have a decent idea on who still has climbing legs and so do the bookies with many being offered up at pretty short odds.

Whether it was planned or not, BikeExchange-Jayco’s Nick Schultz stayed with the GC group on stage 17 – or at least what was left of it – and finished an impressive 11th. With Chris Juul-Jensen up the road, perhaps the idea was to bridge at some point but the race played out too fast for that. Nevertheless, he’s going very well and his best chance of a win is from the break. The 12/1 about him, however, is short.

As mentioned in the stage 17 preview, Astana Qazaqstan’s Alexey Lutsenko did strike out to try and save their race and rode very impressively. A fifth-place finish considering he was alone with Thibaut Pinot for a long way showed the form he’s riding into. There’s 16/1 available on Lutsenko and only a bit more on offer for Pinot. Of the two, I’d rather have the Astana man.

Movistar’s Enric Mas now sits tenth on GC just 15secs ahead of Lutsenko, so it’ll be interesting if he follows him up the road or gets his team to mark his moves. Mas would be a threat from a break but his form appears to be going backwards. I much prefer giving Carlos Verona at 66/1 another go. He was unlucky to suffer a mechanical when in the break on stage 17 and vowed to ‘use his last bullet’ on this final mountain stage.

Team DSM’s Romain Bardet bounced back well on stage 17 considering he described the day before as ‘one of the worst’, ‘an ordeal’, and ‘a terrible day’. Expect him to be on the attack again sniffing either a stage win or top 5 on GC. Given that David Gaudu is vulnerable to losing that fifth spot, Groupama-FDJ should mark Bardet out of the break, so an attack on the first or second climb is more likely.

Whilst Geraint Thomas shored up his third place overall, it wasn’t such a great day for Ineos Grenadiers’ other GC contenders Adam Yates and Tom Pidcock. Yates lost almost 9mins and Pidcock dropped out of the top 10. That should clear them up for going for the break and are both around the 28/1 mark.

Trek-Segafredo’s Giulio Ciccone is gradually getting better and is desperately chasing those mountains points. There are still enough on offer for him to snatch the polka dot jersey from Simon Geschke, but it’s a long shot, especially as the German will likely be up the road too. So Ciccone may put all his efforts towards a stage win and is a decent 50/1.

And AG2R Citroën’s Bob Jungels could be in the mix should the break go all the way. The stage 9 winner has consistently finished with or just behind the favourites and did so again on stage 17.  

Can Bjerg and McNulty match what they did on stage 17 and isolate Vingegaard? If so, it’s likely to be another GC winner. If not, then a group of strong climbers from the break will likely fight for the win.

Stage 18 Bets

2pts win Jonas Vingegaard @3/1

1pt win Nick Schultz @12/1

1pt win Alexey Lutsenko @16/1

0.5pts each way (3 places) Bob Jungels @66/1

0.5pts each way (3 places) Carlos Verona @70/1

Posted 2032 BST Wed 20th July 2022

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