Tour de France 2022

Stage 17 – Saint-Gaudens > Peyragudes (129.7km)

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Stage 16 Result

1st Hugo Houle (300/1)

2nd Valentin Madouas (28/1)

3rd Michael Woods (50/1)

4th Matteo Jorgensen (100/1)

Stage 16 Bets

1pt win Tadej Pogačar @13/2

1pt each way (4 places) Bob Jungels @20/1

1pt each way (4 places) Valentin Madouas @28/1 – 2nd

0.5pts each way (4 places) Giulio Ciccone @33/1

0.5pts each way (4 places) Michael Storer @66/1 – 5th

Storer sacrificed himself to give Madouas a chance in the sprint which in the end was for second behind a brilliant Hugo Houle. So a little unlucky Storer didn’t make the place at 66/1 as he was the fourth strongest on the climb, but still a small profit. Bardet was the big loser on GC, losing over 3mins.

Total Stakes: 81.0pts; Profit/Loss: +18.9pts (23.3%)

Stage 17 Preview

A short mountain stage with four categorised climbs packed into the second half of the 130km route. That’s pretty intense and we should see fireworks in the GC battle. As you’d expect, the final two first-category tests are the toughest – the Col de Val Louron-Azet (10.7km at 6.8%) and then the summit finish up to Peyragudes (8km at 7.8%) with some double-digit ramps in the final 3km where the day’s winner is likely to be decided.

The start is flattish so climbers may need to latch on to a stronger teammate to make the break. Whether it makes it all the way will depend on how early it kicks off behind.

Stage 17 Contenders

With Tadej Pogačar looking to take every opportunity to reduce his 2mins 22secs deficit on Jonas Vingegaard, he’d ideally put his UAE Emirates team to work to isolate Vingegaard before attacking. But even against a weakened Jumbo-Visma, Pogačar simply doesn’t have the troops anymore to do that. He lost another teammate on stage 16 in Marc Soler to a stomach bug which effectively leaves him with two climbing domestiques – Brandon McNulty and Rafał Majka.

For the first time, did Pogačar sound a little downbeat in his post-race interview? Expect him to try repeated stinging attacks, perhaps from a fair way out. But if he fails to shake Vingegaard – who has been equal to everything Pogačar has thrown at him so far – then I could see the Dane counter attack and put the Tour to bed.

A short stage doesn’t help the chances of the breakaway but due to the relative weakness of the leading two teams they may get enough rope to contest the win. So who might still have the legs to get up the road and fight it out?

Perhaps after looking at the downhill finish, Groupama-FDJ’s Thibaut Pinot decided to leave stage 16 to teammates Valentin Madouas and Michael Storer who both rode well but ultimately came up short. So we have to assume that Pinot will give it a go here. Again, at 8/1 he’s shorter than he should be given that he’s not in top form.

Israel-Premier Tech got a great win with Hugo Houle showing that having legs often trumps climbing ability and it left Michael Woods in a defensive role covering attacks. Still suffering from his fall on stage 9, Woods didn’t sound confident of his prospects in the final week, but looked good on stage 16 and will no doubt fancy getting up the road again. There’s 12/1 about Woods and back-to-back wins for Canada.

And if we’re looking at riders in good form rather than pure climbers, then Alberto Bettiol must also be considered. EF Education-Easypost’s Neilson Powless and Rigoberto Urán have both made breaks but fallen short, so perhaps their best card, even on a mountain stage, is Bettiol, who’s available at 50/1.

Of the non-GC contenders, BikeExchange-Jayco’s Nick Schultz was the best of the rest home on stage 16 showing his climbing legs are still operational. BikeExchange weren’t represented at all in the day’s break which was a mistake. They’re sure to put that right here and Schultz is clearly their best option, ideally with a teammate alongside to help.

Unusually for him, Movistar’s Enric Mas attacked off the front of the GC group on the penultimate climb on stage 16 but ultimately lost time and now sits 12mins 45secs behind the leader. Unless he’s marked as a top 10 threat, Mas may now have leeway to make the day’s break. Both he and Carlos Verona would be big players should it go all the way. Verona at twice the price makes more appeal.

Ordinarily an expert stage hunter, Astana’s Alexey Lutsenko has stuck with the GC group throughout this Tour. Perhaps he’ll finally get up the road and save what’s been a shocker of a race for the Kazakh team. There’s 25/1 available on Lutsenko.

Trek-Segafredo’s Giulio Ciccone didn’t get in the move as expected on stage 16. Was he suffering or saving his legs for this? We’ll find out but he’s drifted out to a decent 50/1 which is worth a little each way.

Given the short distance and that we’re almost into kitchen sink throwing territory in the battle for the yellow jersey, the stage is tipped towards a GC win but it’s in the balance. Vingegaard is looking irresistible and is the GC bet, but with a few big price breakaway options too.  

Stage 17 Bets

2pts win Jonas Vingegaard @5/1

1pt win Nick Schultz @20/1

0.5pts each way (4 places) Carlos Verona @33/1

0.5pts each way (4 places) Alberto Bettiol @50/1

0.5pts each way (4 places) Giulio Ciccone @50/1

Posted 2016 BST Tue 19th July 2022

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