Vuelta a España 2022

Stage 18 – Trujillo > Alto de Piornal (192.0km)

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Stage 17 Result

1st Rigoberto Urán (50/1)

2nd Quentin Pacher (50/1)

3rd Jesús Herrada (66/1)

Stage 17 Bets

1pt each way (3 places) Samuele Battistella @40/1

1pt each way (3 places) Rein Taaramäe @25/1

0.5pts each way (3 places) Fred Wright @80/1

0.5pts each way (3 places) Dylan van Baarle @150/1

Wright made the break but fired his bullets working for teammate Gino Mäder and admitted afterwards that the final climb was a bit too hard for him anyway. It did seem steeper and heavier than it looked on paper with splits opening up even amongst the GC men. We didn’t see how close Battistella came to making the break which took a long time to form, Van Baarle was on domestque duty, and sadly Taaramäe abandoned shortly after the start with sickness.

Stage 18 Preview

The first of a three-day block which will decide this year’s Vuelta a España ends with back-to-back first-category climbs which, although not the steepest tests, are long enough for differences to be made if a consistent high pace is maintained. The climbs are two ascents of the same mountain, the Alto de Piornal and, although scaled from opposite sides, are measured almost the same at 13.5km with an average gradient of just over 5%. Both have the odd steeper section but are generally pretty steady around that average mark. Again, the start is rolling which will make it difficult for the break to form early. Tactics behind will determine if the riders in it are able to fight for stage victory.

Stage 18 Contenders

With the loss of Primož Roglič the battle for overall victory looks all but over, but you never know. Remco Evenepoel has never gone this deep into a bike race and he and his Quick-Step Alpha Vinyl teammates will be tested over the next few days. He can afford to ride defensively though and even if gapped should be able to measure his efforts and still maintain some kind of lead into Madrid.

Enric Mas, now lying in second 2mins behind the Belgian, was confident enough to trigger some action at the front on stage 17 and looks in good nick. They’re not known for their attacking instincts, but Movistar surely must try something here – maybe even an early attack on the penultimate climb. Both teams may look to throw some scouts up ahead to use later as insurance should it blow apart. How early the Spanish team start to drive the hard pace will determine if our winner comes from the breakaway or from the GC men.

The tactics of UAE Team Emirates could also be interesting. João Almeida and Juan Ayuso have at times appeared to be riding for different teams at this year’s Vuelta, both vying for leadership and seeming to chase each other down on occasions. These lower gradients particularly suit the diesel engine of Almeida who may look to attack as he did on stage 17 where neither Evenepoel or Mas were interested in chasing him down.

Ayuso is holding up surprisingly well considering his age and recent Covid positive. In what appears to be a clear shift over the last few years, it’s worth noting that five of the top seven on GC qualify for the young rider classification, with those in first, third and fourth, 22, 19 and 21 years old respectively.

Both Astana’s Miguel Ángel López and Ineos’ Carlos Rodríguez are within touching distance of a Vuelta podium which would be a second for López but a remarkable result for Rodríguez on his Grand Tour debut. Of the two, it appears López’s form is building whereas Rodríguez may be hanging on a bit – he admitted after stage 15 that he could’ve shipped a huge amount of time had it not been for Richard Carapaz coming back from the breakaway to help drag his young teammate up the Sierra Nevada climb.  

Carapaz himself is favourite for stage 18 at around 11/2 and of course has already had his arms in the air twice. He may well deliver again, but on price I think has to be left alone.

This is the penultimate chance for climbers out of top 10 GC contention to grab a stage win and as we near the end of the three weeks, serious fatigue will be building up amongst the riders. So we need to identify some riders that perhaps came in a little undercooked and, as others fade, whose form is on the upturn.

A couple stand out from stage 17 – FDJ’s Thibaut Pinot was apparently desperate to make the break but instead rode a very impressive race tracking the GC favourites, finally coming home ahead of both López and Rodríguez. Should he make the front bunch, he’s sure to be one of the strongest. The short price reflects that, but a bet on the nose is justified.  

These two power climbs also suit AG2R’s Bob Jungels who’s had a quite Vuelta but but showed flickers of a return to form on Wednesday. He didn’t quite have the legs to challenge for the win, and in fact finished behind his teammate Clément Champoussin, but you’d expect him to get stronger is the week goes on. Both have chances here and have been put up at decent odds of 125/1 and 50/1 respectively.

Roglič’s absence should allow Jumbo-Visma riders some freedom in chasing their own glory and a couple stand out is having a good shout here. Chris Harper has been on great form and has done a lot of the heavy lifting usually reserved for Sepp Kuss, and Rohan Dennis too if on the form of a couple of year’s ago would be difficult to stop on these kinds of slopes.

So a few breakaway hopefuls and a GC saver. On paper these climbs may lead to a bit of a stalemate in the GC race, but let’s hope a team can animate it early and we get some fireworks.

Stage 18 Bets

1pt each way (3 places) João Almeida @25/1

2pts win Thibaut Pinot @8/1

0.5pts each way (3 places) Bob Jungels @125/1

1pt each way (3 places) Chris Harper @25/1

Posted 2336 Wed 7th Sep 2022

Prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available on the Vuelta a España at Oddschecker