Vuelta a España 2022

Stage 17 – Aracena > Monasterio de Tentudía (162.3km)

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Stage 16 Result

1st Mads Pedersen (13/8F)

2nd Pascal Ackermann (11/1)

3rd Danny van Poppel (11/1)

Stage 16 Bets

1pt win @11/1 Danny van Poppel @11/1 – 3rd

1pt win @14/1 Fred Wright @14/1 – 4th

0.25pts each way (3 places) Ben Turner @100/1

Drama and controversy. For my two penn’orth, I reckon Evenepoel was out of position and knew exactly what he was doing, pulling up having supposedly felt a puncture. And there’s plausible deniability if accused otherwise. Gutting for Roglič though. Hopefully he can still put up a challenge to Evenepoel later in the week despite the nasty fall. Of the picks, no complaints – Van Poppel and Wright made the split but couldn’t beat the fav who’s on fire at the moment.

Stage 17 Preview

Considering the sprinters had their chance on stage 16 and the GC men will be keeping their powder dry for Thursday, this hilly parcours with an uphill finish looks primed for a breakaway win. Never say never, but who’s going to chase this one? The second-category climb to end the day is in two steps but measures 10.3km in total and averages 5% overall, however, there are some steepish sections of 10, 12 and 8% which are made for the puncheur.

Even more annoying than a flat start is a downhill one but that’s what we have here, and for getting on for 20km. It’s not impossible for a break to get clear but given that most teams will think the break has a chance of winning, it’s doubtful. More likely it splits on the unclassified climb after and then they’re left to fight it out.

Stage 17 Contenders

Over half the peloton might fancy their chances here which, apart from making a mockery of the each way three places offered by bookmakers, also makes it a bit of a lottery to pick the winner. This definitely falls into the breakaway bingo category.

Prices are out and they suggest that climbers and GC hopefuls are favoured. Maybe, but the final climb doesn’t look tough enough for that – I wouldn’t be surprised if a puncheur could hang on and contest the final.

If we’re sticking to that then Astana’s Samuele Battistella is value at around 40/1. Already very close to a stage win with two seconds, the impressive young Italian is having a breakthrough race. He seems to have a nose for the right break and will really fancy this finish.

At 42 years old, this has to be the last chance for Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde to land what would be a 13th Vuelta a España stage win. This is made for him – a hilly stage with an uphill finish, but despite a decent Vuelta a Burgos last month, I can’t have him. There’s not the zip there used to be, understandably, and others will surely be quicker to the line.

We’ve gone over the cliff, dusted ourselves off and run back up the hill, but Fred Wright must like the look of this stage too. We’re in the final week of the final Grand Tour of the year and, despite what you see in the road book, it’s all about legs, and Wright has definitely still got them. We can’t abandon him now – Wright is in at a big-looking 80/1.

Bora-Hansgrohe’s Matteo Fabbro has been slowly growing into this race, although very much in a domestique role. But this hilly profile is very much to the liking for the Italian who’s come close to stage wins at the Tirreno-Adriatico in the last couple of years. There are big odds about him, though it’s a bit of a leap of faith.

Ineos have a good option in Dylan van Baarle who, like stage favourite Richard Carapaz, is also leaving the team at the end of the year. The punchy final climb is perfect for this year’s Paris-Roubaix winner and at triple-figure odds is worth a punt.

If you’re outside the top 10 on GC, then you’ll probably want to get up the road for a chance of a stage win even if the parcours doesn’t look ideal. Of those, Intermarché’s Rein Taaramäe looks a decent shout. He finished up with some of the best on stage 15 and the longish final climb might suit.

This could be anything if we’re honest and a really big group could end up off the front. So a few breakaway hopefuls at a price is the order of the day.

Stage 17 Bets

1pt each way (3 places) Samuele Battistella @40/1

1pt each way (3 places) Rein Taaramäe @25/1

0.5pts each way (3 places) Fred Wright @80/1

0.5pts each way (3 places) Dylan van Baarle @150/1

Posted 2119 BST Tue 6th Sep 2022

Prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available on the Vuelta a España at Oddschecker