Tour de France 2024
Stage 2 – Cesenatico > Bologne (199km)
Sun 30th June | Scheduled start: 12:15 CET
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Where: Starts on the Adriatic Coast and heads west to Bologna, the capital of the northern Italian region of Emilia-Romagna.
Stage Type: Hilly, but not as hilly as stage 1.
Weather: Hot and dry again.
Climbs: Six classified climbs ending with a double ascent of the very spicy Côte de San Luca (1.9km at 10.6% but touches almost 20% in the middle).
Start: Flat for the first 50km.
Finish: The final ascent of Côte de Luca peaks just 13km from the line and should be the decisive moment of the race.
Stage suits: Riders who are explosive on steep gradients and have a sprint to match.
Breakaway chances: Low though over a hundred riders are already more than 9mins behind on GC and it’s unclear who would ride should a strong group of these get up the road. It’s only stage 2, however, and the pace will be hot in the final quarter which may do for them.
What will happen?: The flat start should allow Team dsm-firmenich PostNL to police a small breakaway and then ride. UAE Team Emirates will likely put the hammer down in the final 50km and whittle the field down on the first ascent of the Côte de San Luca. Attacks should fly the second time up – whoever gets a gap over the top has a chance of keeping it to the line or more likely there’s a regroupment and a small reduced sprint.
Stage 2 Contenders
Tadej Pogačar (7/4; 2.75) will attack on the Côte de San Luca to test Jonas Vingegaard (28/1; 29.0) and potentially run away with the stage. The almost 2km climb is long enough for Pogačar to create a small gap – but will he be caught on the run-in?
Primož Roglič (7/1; 8.0) is a three-time winner of the Giro dell’Emilia one-day race which uses the San Luca climb for its finale, however, that race ends at the summit, not 10km down the road. Looked in decent shape when winning the Critérium du Dauphiné at the start of the month. Is fast on the line but more suited if it’s uphill.
Wout van Aert (10/1; 11.0) sprinted for third on stage 1 to show his form is better than he thought. Is unlikely to be able to follow a full-out Pogačar attack but if he stays in touch could win from a reduced group.
Maxim Van Gils (12/1; 13.0) showed very well on stage 1 and sprinted for fifth. Has a chance if he can stay with the guys above.
Remco Evenepoel (14/1; 15.0) has hinted towards building his form for the second weekend rather than coming in hot but stage 2 definitely suits his characteristics. His climbing form at the Dauphiné and recent sickness means others make more appeal.
Mathieu van der Poel (20/1; 21.0) appeared to take it easy on Saturday – saving his legs for this or keeping fresh to help Jasper Philipsen in the first sprint stage on Monday? Said he hasn’t made a big goal of the opening weekend in the same way he did three years ago when he took yellow in spectacular fashion on stage 2, but the sharp gradients suit and if left in a small group is likely to be one of the fastest.
Ben Healy (22/1; 23.0) showed decent legs on Saturday though probably has to win solo.
Tom Pidcock (25/1; 26.0) said he felt rough at the team presentation but was happy with his performance in tough conditions on stage 1. Must have marked this stage in the roadbook as a real opportunity to get his hands in the air.
Stephen Williams (40/1; 41.0) won La Flèche Wallonne earlier this year so has form on wall climbs though, as already stated, the race doesn’t end there.
Adam Yates (40/1; 41.0) and João Almeida (150/1; 151.0) were peerless at the Tour de Suisse finishing first and second in four stages. Not impossible that we see a repeat of stage 1 of the Tour last year with a standoff between Pogačar and Vingegaard allowing one of their super domestiques taking the day.
Matteo Jorgenson (66/1; 67.0) nearly won the Dauphiné and is in the form of his life. Has a decent sprint and could benefit from the race dynamic described above.
Paul Lapeira (66/1; 67.0) was active in the fight for the breakaway on stage 1 and may try that option again rather than fight it out with the big boys at the end. Either way, we’re likely to see the French nationals jersey pop up near the front at some point.
Stage 2 Bets
A small group forming over the top of the final climb is probably favourite and from there we could see all sorts of tactics play out so it’s worth having a speculative punt on two riders coming in with stellar form at big prices.
Matteo Jorgenson 0.5pts each way @66/1 (4 places)
João Almeida 0.5pts each way @125/1 (4 places)
Posted 21:45 BST Sat 29th June 2024
Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
Stage 2 Result
[Tour de France stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]
