Tour de France 2024

Stage 3 – Plaisance > Turin (231km)

Mon 1st July | Scheduled start: 11:15 CET

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Where: Still in northern Italy but ending near the French border in the capital of Piedmont, Turin.

Stage Type: Flat and very long.

Weather: A bit cooler than the weekend but still hot. Possibility of showers in the afternoon.

Climbs: Three short fourth-category climbs. The only potentially significant one is the last – 3.1km at 4.6% – which, if ridden hard, could test some fast men. There’s still 50km of road afterwards, however, so plenty of time to get back on.

Start: Flat for about 70km before hitting the first classified bump.

Finish: Two 90-degree left-handers inside the final kilometre where a good position will be vital, a very small kink to the left 200m later before 500m of straight, wide road to the line. Probable slight headwind.

Stage suits: Sprinters

Breakaway chances: Very low – this is the first opportunity for sprinters and they won’t let it slip.

What will happen?: Sprint teams will police a small break and keep it on a tight leash all day before bringing it back for a bunch finish.

Stage 3 Contenders

Jasper Philipsen (8/11; 1.73) won four stages at last year’s Tour and is a very short price to open his account here. Probably the fastest sprinter in the world but was beaten twice by Tim Merlier in the Belgium Tour a couple of weeks ago, although the first of those sprints was just badly timed rather than any noticeable lack of speed. Unlike in Belgium, he’ll have the deluxe leadout of Mathieu van der Poel who, apart from an early dig to make the break on Sunday, has kept his boots cool.

Dylan Groenewegen (7/1; 8.0) took the Dutch national title last week which would’ve given him a timely confidence boost. Probably suffered more than Philipsen over the first two days.

Wout van Aert (9/1; 10.0) came down on stage 2 and suffered some abrasions but was well enough to take a take a pull on the front up the Côte de San Luca climb. His level appears to be better than expected but would need to be at his best to challenge the fastest here, and he can’t possibly be.

Arnaud De Lie (12/1; 13.0) beat Philipsen to take the Belgian national title after a difficult spring campaign where he faced both physical and mental challenges. But for a mechanical almost certainly would’ve won stage 2 of the recent Tour de Suisse too. Would prefer a tougher day out and is on Grand Tour debut but can’t be underestimated.

Mark Cavendish (16/1; 17.0) suffered badly on stage 1 but thankfully is still in the race. Would need a few things to fall his way to beat all of these though his leadout of Ballerini, Bol and Morkøv should at least get him into a decent position.

Mads Pedersen (16/1; 17.0) won a stage of the Dauphiné and showed great climbing legs in his domestique work for Giulio Ciccone. Has a much better chance on tougher days out which is reflected in his price but is sure to have his arms in the air at some point.

Fabio Jakobsen (22/1; 23.0) has dropped down the sprinting pecking order alarmingly quickly since his move to Team dsm-firmenich PostNL and, like Cavendish, was dropped early on stage 1. Should be at a better level than he showed at the Giro but a win seems unlikely.

Phil Bauhaus (25/1; 26.0) won at the Tour of Slovenia but is up against tougher opposition here. Has a decent leadout so should be well positioned and could sneak a place at decent odds.

Gerben Thijssen (33/1; 34.0) will probably be Intermarché-Wanty’s protected sprinter on flatter days like this, keeping Biniam Girmay (80/1; 81.0) for when the parcours is a bit tougher. Teunissen, Rex and Page are a powerful looking train so Thijssen could surprise.

Alexander Kristoff (40/1; 41.0) seems to be revitalised since his move to Uno-X Mobility and it wouldn’t be a huge shock to see him challenge for a win somewhere, probably not here though.

Fernando Gaviria (40/1; 41.0) never really got close in the Giro and just doesn’t seem to have the speed of old.

Arnaud Démare (40/1; 41.0) probably has his best days behind him though the team will be buzzing after Vauquelin’s win on stage 2.

Sam Bennett (50/1; 51.0) has never really rediscovered the form which saw him take two stages and the green jersey at the Tour four years ago but did show good legs at the 4 Jours de Dunkerque in May. Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale are pulling rabbits out all over the place, so who knows?

Stage 3 Bets

It’s difficult to see past a win for Jasper Philipsen, especially with Mathieu van der Poel to launch him, but the price is very short and plenty can go wrong in a sprint.

Of the others, Phil Bauhaus and Arnaud De Lie make most appeal. The German could find himself in a good position and has a habit of outperforming his odds, but the pick goes to the new Belgian champion Arnaud De Lie who is one of the few with the power to threaten Philipsen. Getting within firing range could be the problem.

Arnaud De Lie 1pt each way @12/1 (3 places) – 3rd

Posted 22:46 BST Sun 30th June 2024

Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change

Stage 3 Result

1st Biniam Girmay (80/1)

2nd Fernando Gaviria (40/1)

3rd Arnaud De Lie (12/1)

[Tour de France stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]