Tour de France 2022

Stage 2 – Roskilde > Nyborg (202.2km)

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Stage 1 Result

1st Yves Lampaert (66/1)

2nd Wout van Aert (11/4)

3rd Tadej Pogačar (33/1)

Stage 1 Bets

1pt win Mathieu van der Poel @14/1 - 5th

0.25pts each way (3 places) Magnus Cort @200/1 - 11th

We got a bit of a run for our money with Van der Poel in the hot seat for quite a while. In the end, the later starters had the best of the conditions – the opposite to what everyone thought! Cort looks in decent form and finished just outside the top 10. It would be no surprise to see him win a stage before we hit Paris.

Stage 2 Preview

After the tricky time trial conditions on stage 1, the riders tackle the first road stage of this year’s Tour de France. The standout feature will be the crossing of the Great Belt Bridge – an 18km span across the sea connecting the islands of Zealand and Funen. It comes right at the end of the stage and is sure to be blustery.

But will the wind be strong enough and in the right direction to break up the peloton? That’s the big question. The forecast is unclear, but all the teams have been aware of this danger for months and will be on high alert. The stage will end in either a bunch or reduced sprint depending on what happens on the bridge.

Stage 2 Contenders

So, first chance for the sprinters, we assume. There’s been plenty of talk before the Tour de France about the absence of last year’s green jersey winner Mark Cavendish, and it is a shame not to see him here. But nobody can begrudge Fabio Jakobsen for getting the nod as Quick-Step Alpha Vinyl’s chosen sprinter. And to take both would’ve made for an uneasy team bus.

To be racing at all since his life-threatening crash in the Tour of Poland less than two years ago is something of a minor miracle, but to have returned to the level he has is extraordinary. Few would argue that right now he’s the fastest sprinter in the world.

He’s already bagged 10 wins this season – twice as many as Cavendish – and is sure to be positioned well with yellow jersey wearer Yves Lampaert, Florian Sénéchal and finally Michael Mørkøv making up a formidable leadout train. That could be crucial because we have a sharp left-hander with 700m to go and if you’re too far back there, your chance of a win may be gone.

It’s not a straightforward sprint stage and there’ll be lots of nerves in the bunch, but Jakobsen has to start as strong favourite to win stage 2 of the Tour de France. He’s available at a best price of 2/1.

Fellow Dutchman Dylan Groenewegen was given a nine-month ban for causing Jakobsen’s crash in Poland and we wondered whether he would recover psychologically. It’s been a slow build but he too looks to be back to something near his best. His move to BikeExchange-Jayco was a surprise and clearly a punt by the Australian outfit to bank some UCI points and avoid the newly introduced WorldTour relegation.

He was sent to the Critérium de Dauphiné back in June and struggled on the hilly course, failing to compete in a single sprint. Did that experience drain his confidence or help build his form for the Tour? We’ll see but he did come back with a win in the Tour of Slovenia albeit against much lesser opposition than he’ll face here. Groenewegen is the second favourite at a best price of 11/2.

Alpecin-Deceuninck’s Jasper Philipsen did everything bar win a stage at last year’s Tour – two seconds (including on the Champs-Élysées) and three thirds. But he put those heartaches behind him to win twice at the Vuelta a España later in the year. He’s been in decent form – most recently with a win at the Tour of Belgium – and has the formidable Mathieu van der Poel as a leadout man. Philipsen is a big player and is available at 13/2 to take stage 2.

Despite the chatter, there didn’t seem to be much up with Wout van Aert’s knee during Friday’s time trial. If it hadn’t brightened up, Van Aert would be in yellow. He still has a chance of taking it here by picking up bonus seconds on the line – there are 10, 6 and 4secs available for the top 3 on each stage. Van Aert is currently 5secs behind Lampaert so there’s a big reward if he gets it right.

His leadout man, Christophe Laporte, took a tumble in the time trial when going very well – it’s not ideal, but he’s clearly flying as he has been all season. The purer sprinters had the luxury of saving their legs on stage 1, but you can’t rule Van Aert out of anything and he’s definitely a major contender to take the win here.

Mads Pedersen is also within touching distance of the maillot jaune and of course it would be a dream for him to take the jersey in his home country. Trek-Segafredo will be one of the teams looking to make the race as tough as possible as this will play to Pedersen’s strength. If it gets selective or the purer sprinter’s legs have been sufficiently deadened, he has a big chance.

By his own admission, Caleb Ewan had a “Giro from hell” in the season’s first Grand Tour, leaving without a win and plenty of physical and mental bruises. We’ve seen him back on the road once since where he was narrowly beaten by Jakobsen in a one-day race in Bruges. That would suggest his form has held. He’s opened up at around 8/1 for stage 2 which looks big given the Aussie’s class and desire to prove a point after the Giro.

This is tricky to predict – it’s the first road stage of the Tour so literally anything could happen. I can see any of the contenders above winning or crashes and mayhem opening the door to an outsider. Ewan looks value but everything is in the favour of Jakobsen. So, despite the short price, I’ll go for the Dutchman with both head and heart.

Stage 2 Bets

2pts win Fabio Jakobsen @2/1

Posted 2125 BST Fri 1st July 2022

Prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available on the Tour de France at Oddschecker