Tour de France 2022

Stage 3 – Vejle > Sønderborg (182.0km)

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Stage 2 Result

1st Fabio Jakobsen (2/1F)

2nd Wout van Aert (15/2)

3rd Mads Pedersen (15/2)

Stage 2 Bets

2pts win Fabio Jakobsen @2/1 – 1st

Jakobsen got up on the line but it was far from straightforward. His final leadout men – Lampaert and Mørkøv – both went down in a crash on the bridge and then, having fought back on, Mørkøv was shuffled out of position leaving Jakobsen alone into the last bend. In the end it didn’t matter and he’ll be strong favourite to double up on stage 3.

Watch the final stages here.

Stage 3 Preview

The last of our three stages in Denmark before the circus moves to France. There are a few mountain points to fight over with three very short fourth-category climbs otherwise the profile looks pretty benign.

What could change that of course is the weather. It’s going to be windy again which could mean echelons, but it’s likely to end in some sort of bunch sprint. There’s a left-hander just after the flamme rouge but then it’s a straight, flat run-in to the line.

Stage 3 Contenders

Stage 2 was quite a messy, chaotic sprint. Some riders lost their leadouts and others were unable to unleash a full sprint due to poor positioning. So it didn’t give us a full picture to help us choose who will win stage 3 of the Tour de France.

It doesn’t bode well for the others that Fabio Jakobsen still won even without his final leadout man Mickael Mørkøv. If the Quick-Step Alpha Vinyl sprint train gets all the carriages in the right order – and with this less complicated run-in they have a better chance of doing so – then Jakobsen will have a big chance to make it a clean sweep of Danish stages for the boys in blue.

Unsurprisingly, there’s no 2/1 about him this time. He’s a best price of 11/8 which isn’t very exciting, is it?

One of the best leadouts on stage 2 was Christophe Laporte for the new yellow jersey wearer Wout van Aert. Laporte has looked super strong this season and showed no ill effects from his spill in the time trial on Friday. Timing is everything in a sprint (along with positioning … which is also everything) and those two almost got it spot on. But Van Aert might not get a better chance to beat Jakobsen in a straight-up sprint – plenty about the final went right for Van Aert and Jakobsen still won. The best price of 11/2 doesn’t appeal.

Trek-Segafredo’s Jesper Stuyven was perhaps the star leadout man on the day, delivering Mads Pedersen to the front of the race with 150m to go. Pedersen was first to launch but was overrun on the line, perhaps due to the headwind.

The former world champion is in top form but like Van Aert lacks a little bit against the purer sprinters. He needs the stage to be tough or the fastest of the fastmen to run into trouble. His price has eased somewhat since the markets opened to 8/1, but I still don’t fancy it. He could run into a place again but there should be at least one quickie that gets past him.

Dylan Groenewegen was poorly positioned into the final on stage 2 and never challenged, finishing down in eighth. Looking back at it, he appeared to have a clear line but didn’t get out of the saddle. Perhaps he knew the chance of a win had gone, but he looked a bit pooped. We know Groenewegen has the top-end speed to run Jakobsen close and therefore could offer a bit of value. But on that showing, he’s best left alone.  

With the headwind finish, I feared that Caleb Ewan would sit behind Jakobsen and zip around him in the last 50m for the 8/1 win which was probably the value bet. And with 100m to go it looked on. Sat on Jakobsen’s wheel, he got squeezed between Danny van Poppel (who finished an excellent fourth) and Jasper Philipsen, lost all momentum and sat up.

Of course we don’t know how he’d have done in the sprint but you can’t read too much into the 13th position that he finished. Ewan opened up at 10/1 with some bookmakers which looked big. He’s since been cut to 8/1 – the same as he was for stage 2. There’s another headwind predicted here – could he pull it off this time?

Mathieu van der Poel didn’t give the deluxe leadout to Philipsen that I was expecting. In fact, he spent a lot of the day hanging out at the back – no doubt plotting an 80km solo attack in the coming days. Along with Jakobsen, it was Philipsen who arrived at the line carrying the most speed but was just a little far back to challenge for the win. The decent 9/1 about him is tempting.

Fabio Jakobsen is obviously the most likely winner of stage 3. But based on price alone, I think it’s a toss-up between Philipsen and Ewan. And even without any proper leadout support and his probable rustiness coming into the Tour, the ‘Pocket Rocket’ gets the nod. Now glue yourself to Jakobsen’s wheel!

Stage 3 Bets

1pt win Caleb Ewan @8/1

Posted 2112 BST Sat 2nd July 2022

Prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available on the Tour de France at Oddschecker