Giro d’Italia 2024
Stage 20 – Alpago > Bassano del Grappa (184km)
Sat 25th May | Scheduled start: 11:40 CET
Profile
Stage 19 Result
1st Andrea Vendrame (100/1)
2nd Pelayo Sánchez (18/1)
3rd Georg Steinhauser (25/1)
4th Jhonathan Narváez (11/1)
5th Luke Plapp (40/1)
Stage 19 Bets
Aurélien Paret-Peintre 2pts each way (5 places) @14/1
Pelayo Sánchez 2pts each way (5 places) @18/1 – 2nd
Max Schachmann 1pt each way (5 places) @50/1
Mauri Vansevenant 1pt each way (5 places) @66/1
Edoardo Zambanini 0.5pts each way (5 places) @100/1
A good second from Sánchez but he should’ve won it. A bit less faffing about at the team cars by the chasing group whilst the race was disappearing up the road might have helped. On the other picks, Vansevenant crashed on a downhill when marking for Alaphilippe, Zambanini apparently had licence for the break but didn’t make it in, and Paret-Peintre and Schachmann stayed with their leaders.
Stage 20 Preview
The last mountain stage and the final opportunity for movement on the general classification so, whilst Tadej Pogačar is safe in pink with a lead of almost 8mins, there should be plenty of action behind in the battle for the podium, top 5, top 10 and the white jersey for best young rider.
The parcours is very straightforward though of course far from easy – a few lumps and bumps but a largely flat start followed by a double ascent of the first-category Monte Grappa. This is a brute of a climb – 18.1km at an average gradient of 8.1%, maxing at 17% near the top. The long descent – interrupted by a kilometre long double-digit kicker – levels off 3km before the line when they come down for the second time.
Stage 20 Contenders
Tadej Pogačar (4/7; 1.57) is super short not just because he’s head and shoulders above everyone else but because he’s already said he’d like to win in front of the expected huge Slovenian support. Race dynamics can be weird though and if it kicks off early, he may decide to hold back and keep some troops with him rather than set off on a long solo chase. In all likelihood though, he’ll win however he wants.
Dani Martínez (14/1; 15.0) will be riding to defend his second place on the podium. He hasn’t faded during the three weeks as some expected, in fact he’s looking the next-strongest rider, but strange things can happen on the final mountain stage of a Grand Tour.
Geraint Thomas (33/1; 34.0) and Ineos Grenadiers will be looking to isolate Martínez, perhaps even on the first ascent of Monte Grappa. Thymen Arensman (50/1; 51.0) could be used as an early attacking option though words have clearly been exchanged since he gapped Thomas on stage 16 and he’s likely to stick by the Welshman’s side.
Antonio Tiberi (40/1; 41.0) is currently in the white jersey, 41secs ahead of Arensman, and has recovered well after a wobble on the stage up to Livigno. Damiano Caruso (20/1; 21.0) was given a licence to make the break on stage 19, but protecting that jersey may take priority now.
Romain Bardet (20/1; 21.0) seems to be improving and has the terrain to try his favourite tactic – an attack over the top of a climb and a speedy descent. It would be advisable to try it the first time up as by the second he’s unlikely to be at the front of the race.
Nairo Quintana (18/1; 19.0) won the last time a Giro stage went up the Monte Grappa but that was a mountain time trial. He looked stuffed when going backwards on stage 19 but had actually just set up Einer Rubio (40/1; 41.0) for a little dig. It shows that Movistar are motivated to roll the dice and that Rubio is still feeling good. Expect Quintana to try something here – from the break or an early attack.
Jan Hirt (33/1; 34.0) won a stage in the last week of the Giro two years ago, though how he wins here is unclear. From the break is probably his best hope but will he be allowed in it?
Michael Storer (33/1; 34.0) hasn’t quite taken off in this Giro though is riding well. He stated that his main goal was to finish in the top 10 but he’s currently almost 4mins behind that so he’s likely to try for the break or attack early.
Anything can happen on such a big mountain test at the end of three weeks’ hard racing – we’re sure to see some riders crack and lose their GC position. That won’t be Pogačar though.
The breakaway isn’t entirely without a chance – much will depend on how hot the pace is the first time up the climb and whether there are enough pure climbers in it to keep the chasing pack at bay. But on balance, given how long and hard the climb is, it should come back together and see the best riders in the race fill the places.
We’re probably playing for second here but anyway – Einer Rubio looked quite fresh on stage 19 and I like the way he’s been keen to attack rather than just follow. Descending will be key, especially if it’s wet, so Romain Bardet also has to be a selection. Enjoy!
Stage 20 Bets
Romain Bardet 2pts each way (4 places) @20/1
Einer Rubio 1pt each way (4 places) @40/1
Posted 22:24 BST Fri 24th May 2024
Prices to win the stage are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available on the Giro d’Italia at Oddschecker
[Giro d’Italia stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]
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