Giro d’Italia 2024
Stage 19 – Mortegliano > Sappada (157km)
Fri 24th May | Scheduled start: 13:05 CET
Profile
Stage 18 Result
1st Tim Merlier (9/4)
2nd Jonathan Milan (EvsF)
3rd Kaden Groves (12/1)
4th Alberto Dainese (18/1)
Stage 18 Bets
Kaden Groves 1pt each way (4 places) @12/1 – 3rd
Juan Sebastián Molano 1pt each way (4 places) @20/1
A bit of a chaotic finish and a near miss for Groves who admitted he hit the wind a little early and was passed inside the last 50m. Molano got squeezed out but would’ve probably struggled to make the frame anyway.
Stage 19 Preview
A hilly or medium mountain stage which is too hard for the sprinters and not hard enough for the GC players, so punchy climbers will be looking to get in the breakaway which, once formed, should be allowed to take the day.
Pogačar has said that he’d like to win the final mountain stage on Saturday as it’s near the Slovenian border and then we have the sprinter’s stage in Rome on Sunday, so this is the last chance for many teams to get something out of the race. Therefore, we can expect a big fight for the break.
Unfortunately, we have another flattish start which not only makes it tricky for climber types to make the break, but a hefty dose of luck is also needed to catch the move that sticks. It should also make it easier to police, so it’s unlikely (but not impossible) that some of the top 10 GC favourites get into it.
The final 30km or so are almost entirely uphill with some tough double-digit gradients so the lesser climbers in what’s likely to be a big group will have to anticipate the race to stay ahead. It looks like another stage where making the ‘break of the break’ may be decisive.
Stage 19 Contenders
Julian Alaphilippe (12/1; 13.0) has been very active this Giro and of course has his win. If he’s still got the legs, this is perfect for him.
Jhonatan Narváez (12/1; 13.0) ditto the above and probably has the beating of Alaphilippe in a straight fight.
Aurélien Paret-Peintre (14/1; 15.0) showed on stage 17 that he still has his climbing legs and like the two above has a fast sprint. Valentin Paret-Peintre (28/1; 29.0) is a purer climber and the flat start isn’t ideal but would have a big chance if out front.
Pelayo Sánchez (18/1; 19.0) had a better uphill kick than Alaphilippe on stage 6 and was active again on stage 16.
Attila Valter (25/1) and Jan Tratnik (33/1) should both try for the break as Visma-Lease a Bike roll the dice again.
Georg Steinhauser (25/1; 26.0) has his win and the emotional high from that may have dented his edge, but if his legs are still there could easily double up.
Damiano Caruso (25/1; 26.0) and Edoardo Zambanini (100/1; 101.0) are both options for Bahrain-Victorious who may chase a stage win here and then keep their troops around Antonio Tiberi on Saturday.
Mauri Vansevenant (66/1; 67.0) looks better value than Alaphilippe from Soudal-QuickStep and may be given his own chance after working in the service of others.
Max Schachmann (66/1; 67.0) is a big price considering his talent but after his second place on the opening stage has been subdued by a crash and then largely tethered to Dani Martínez. It’s a punt that he’ll be allowed his own option but the price is decent.
Dozens of others will be going for this and the breakaway may have a strange composition. Given the flat start, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see some riders make the frame at big prices that, on paper, aren’t suited to the profile.
So we need a few options … and some luck. A couple of the fancied riders plus three others at juicy prices are in the pot.
Stage 19 Bets
Aurélien Paret-Peintre 2pts each way (5 places) @14/1
Pelayo Sánchez 2pts each way (5 places) @18/1
Max Schachmann 1pt each way (5 places) @50/1
Mauri Vansevenant 1pt each way (5 places) @66/1
Edoardo Zambanini 0.5pts each way (5 places) @100/1
Posted 21:28 BST Thu 23rd May 2024
Prices to win the stage are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available on the Giro d’Italia at Oddschecker
[Giro d’Italia stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]
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