Tour de France 2022

Stage 20 – Lacapelle-Marival > Rocamadour ITT (40.7km)

Profile

Stage 19 Result

1st Christophe Laporte (80/1)

2nd Jasper Philipsen (11/4)

3rd Alberto Dainese (33/1)

Stage 19 Bets

2pts win Jasper Philipsen @11/4 – 2nd

0.25pts each way (3 places) Luka Mezgec @400/1

0.25pts each way (3 places) Mathieu Burgaudeau @500/1

Right man, wrong day. Laporte was a pick on stages 5, 8 & 15 when he wasn’t the chosen man. Frustrating as Philipsen was clearly the strongest behind. On the wildcards, Burgaudeau worked on the front for Sagan, Mezgec worked for Groenewegen but still managed 9th himself.

Total Stakes: 96.0; Profit/Loss: +11.9pts (+12.4%)

Stage 20 Preview

As is common these days, the penultimate stage of the Tour de France is an individual time trial. It’s long at over 40km and for the most part flat, which favours the TT specialists. However, after three weeks of brutal racing, it will also very much depend on who has the legs and motivation to go to the well one last time.

Cruelly, the race against the clock ends with a couple of short climbs, the last one up towards the line being the toughest at 1.5km with an average gradient of 7.8%. Barring accidents, the top four on GC look set, but fifth is still in play which adds a little more interest alongside the stage victory.

Stage 20 Contenders

Following Christophe Laporte’s win on stage 19, Jumbo-Visma have now won five stages and currently hold the yellow, green and polka dot jerseys. Nothing suggests they’re in the mood to hand out any gifts so we can expect Wout van Aert to be fully motivated to try to repeat his TT and Champs-Élysées double that he landed in 2021.

Even by his standards, Van Aert has been ridiculously good this Tour – what else can he achieve? Co-GC leader with Jonas Vingegaard next year? Given his climbing ability, the two lumps at the end also give him an advantage over the other specialists. In short, it would be a surprise if Van Aert doesn’t win this time trial. Unfortunately, the odds-on price reflects that.

Staying with Jumbo-Visma, Laporte and Vingegaard could end up being Van Aert’s biggest challengers. The Frenchman was ahead at the intermediate time check on stage 1 before being callously brought down by Eurosport’s Robbie McEwen. Of course, being a sprinter/leadout man, he’s more suited to the shorter distances but he’s looked super strong throughout. There’s 40/1 about him though there’s always the risk that having got his win, his motivation to go all-in for another is diminished.

With over 3mins advantage on GC, Vingegaard can afford to be somewhat cautious given that only a crash can prevent him taking the win in Paris. But I’m sure he’ll want to go out on a high and give it his all. He placed an impressive third in both time trials last year which shows that, despite his slight frame, he’s still like a bullet on a TT bike.

The longer distance should favour world champion Filippo Ganna, but the Italian hasn’t quite been his monstruous self in this Tour.  He punctured late on in the stage 1 prologue, losing by just 10secs and we saw him in the breakaway on stage 13 where he ultimately finished 6th, otherwise he’s been on full domestique duty.

Clearly, this is one of his major season goals, although it could be telling that he’s postponed another one, the Hour Record – which was pencilled in for August – until later in the year. Does he feel his form is not there? Is he more fatigued than expected? He’s been put up at a 7/2 for this which is a huge price given his dominance in time trials over the last few years, but it's simply a reflection of how dominant Van Aert has looked.  

Going in as one of the favourites, EF Education-Easypost’s Stefan Bissegger had a nightmare in the opening time trial, slipping twice on the city streets of Copenhagen. He’s mainly worked for others during the last three weeks but gets his chance here. There’s no doubting his talent on a TT bike and looks a little big at 25/1.

The other Swiss Stefan, Groupama-FDJ’s Stefan Küng finished fourth from the break with Ganna on stage 13 and has had a similar Tour – mainly on helping duties and not making much of a splash in breaks. He’s the current European champion which was one of five time trial wins he bagged last year. He’s come up short so far this season, however, and could do so again here. Making a place would be a good result but the 16/1 about him doesn’t appeal.

Tadej Pogačar isn’t close enough on GC to overhaul Vingegaard as he did Primož Roglič in 2020, but there’s no doubt he’ll still want to put in a performance. That race ended on the Planche des Belles Filles but, despite the two short climbs at the end, this is much flatter terrain and that is against him. But who could write him off having the final word in the GC battle? Pogačar, like Vingegaard, is around 7/1 for the win.

Geraint Thomas rode one of the fastest second halves of the opening time trial despite his gilet gaffe which must’ve cost him at least 10secs overall. A long, measured effort over an untechnical time trial course is in his favour as it doesn’t require the explosivity that he lacks compared to his younger rivals. Coming in he was on good TT form, losing to Remco Evenepoel by just 3secs over 25km in the Tour de Suisse. As with Vingegaard and Pogačar, his place on GC is secure and so caution may be the watchword, but if he goes all-in will fancy a place in the top 3. The 14/1 best price about him, however, isn’t super generous.

His namesake, Benjamin Thomas is not without a chance at big odds. He’s twice been French time trial champion and came close to a breakaway win on stage 15. Cofidis are now 14 years without a win in their home tour. Could Thomas break that streak? Maybe, with the help of a TV moto.

Yves Lampaert of Quick-Step Alpha Vinyl showed on stage 1 that outsiders can win time trials, though that was over a shorter distance in changeable wet conditions. It would be a surprise if he doubled up, but who knows?

Given his form, Van Aert will probably win stage 20, but purely on price let’s see if we can get a run from these two.

Stage 20 Bets

0.5pts each way (3 places) Geraint Thomas @14/1

0.5pts each way (3 places) Christophe Laporte @40/1

Posted 2050 BST Fri 22nd July 2022

Prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available on the Tour de France at Oddschecker