Tour de France 2022

Stage 21 – Paris La Défense Arena > Paris Champs-Élysées (115.6km)

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Stage 20 Result

1st Wout van Aert (5/6F)

2nd Jonas Vingegaard (7/1)

3rd Tadej Pogačar (7/1)

Stage 20 Bets

0.5pts each way (3 places) Geraint Thomas @14/1 – 4th

0.5pts each way (3 places) Christophe Laporte @40/1

Thomas missed the place money by 5secs as he slowed up on the final climb and wasn’t helped by losing his radio comms at the start. Unlucky. Unfortunately, Laporte wasn’t motivated to go full beans and coasted around more than 6mins down. That’s always a risk in a time trial. To Paris!

Total Stakes: 98.0pts; Profit/Loss: +9.9pts (+10.1%)

Stage 21 Preview

For the podium sitters, this stage is largely ceremonial and one to be savoured, no doubt with a glass of champagne before they enter Paris. But for the sprinters it’s a chance to cement their place in history and add one of the most coveted wins in cycling to their palmarès. So there’s a big disparity in stress levels amongst the riders.

Barring an almighty cock-up the race should end in a sprint, but given the fatigue in the peloton, a breakaway or late attack is never completely without a chance. The Champs-Élysées sprint itself is a cobbled uphill drag and tough on tired legs which will be a factor in determining the day’s winner.

Stage 21 Contenders

As the uphill finish on stage 19 showed, Alpecin-Deceuninck’s Jasper Philipsen still his plenty of strength left in his legs. But for losing his leadout over the final roundabout, he could’ve and perhaps should’ve got his second win of the Tour. He looks the freshest and the fastest, but does he have the pure speed to beat his rivals at the end of a stage with a gentler parcours?

Quick-Step Alpha Vinyl’s Fabio Jakobsen fought courageously over the mountains for this chance on the Champs. After all that, he’s sure to be super motivated but he looks exhausted. He was dropped pretty promptly on stage 19 and whilst there’s no chance of that happening here, he’s clearly coming in with heavy legs. He also lost his deluxe leadout man, Michael Mørkøv, who finished outside the time limit on stage 15 (was that only a week ago?). So there’s plenty against Jakobsen who arguably was the fastest man on the startlist. Is that still true after 20 stages though?

Dylan Groenewegen got over the mountains surprisingly well and the big Dutchman’s condition appears sound. He also has an excellent final leadout man in Luka Mezgec who always seems to come good in the final week of Grand Tours. There’s no doubt he has the speed but as with Jakobsen, how much zip have the three weeks taken out of him?

If any rider deserves a bit luck it’s Lotto Soudal’s Caleb Ewan. A combination of mechanicals, poor positioning, and crashes have denied him a win at both the Giro d’Italia and Tour de France. Unlike some of his rivals, Ewan knows what it’s like to lift his arms on the Champs having won there in 2019, his third victory in that edition. But how much has his crash on stage 13 taken out of him? We’ll have to see.

Wout van Aert won this last year, as he did the time trial on stage 20. This year the time trial is in the bag, could he repeat the double? The uphill drag and tired legs of the faster sprinters are in his favour and it wouldn’t at all be a surprise given his form. He’ll also have Christophe Laporte as a leadout, who would be one of the favourites in his own right were he in another team.

After an impressive third on stage 19, Team DSM’s Alberto Dainese appears to be coming into his own as others tire. His team has been focussed around Romain Bardet but he should get a full leadout here. A place is certainly up for grabs but would probably need others to find trouble to land the win. That’s true also of Peter Sagan – by all known evidence there should be others faster.

Trek-Segafredo’s Mads Pedersen was sick with a tummy bug before stage 19 but by all accounts he’s feeling much better and managed to keep his breakfast down on Saturday morning. Good to know. It’s a finish that suits a strong man like Pedersen but even at around 16/1 isn’t really backable considering his illness and simply because others appear faster.

So, in conclusion. He looks the fastest man left and was only just beaten last year by Van Aert. He needs to find some room, launch early and leave nothing to chance. Jasper Philipsen to win on the Champs.

Stage 21 Bets

3pts win Jasper Philipsen @2/1

Posted 1941 BST Sat 23rd July 2022

Prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available on the Tour de France at Oddschecker

Stage 21 Result

1st Jasper Philipsen (2/1F)

2nd Dylan Groenewegen (13/2)

3rd Alexander Kristoff (50/1)

Stage 21 Bets

3pts win Jasper Philipsen @2/1 - 1st

Yes Jasper! A surprisingly comfortable win. Ewan and Jakobsen were nowhere, and Van Aert was content to ride in with his team which meant it was a bit uncompetitive. But we’ll take the win which makes the profit look a bit healthier.

Total Stakes: 101.0pts; Profit/Loss: +15.9pts (+15.7%)

Here’s a breakdown of all of the selections and results.

The overall profit could’ve been worse but also could’ve been a lot better in what was a very enjoyable edition of the Tour de France. Racing has definitely changed over the last few years – more aggressive, more dynamic, less predictable, and cycling is the better for it.

Hope you enjoyed the previews – I’m back in just a few weeks for the Vuelta a España which this year starts in Utrecht in the Netherlands on the 19th August. See you then!