Vuelta a España 2023

Stage 20 – Manzanares El Real > Guadarrama (208km)

Scheduled start: 11:55 CET

Profile

Stage 19 Result

1st Alberto Dainese (11/2)

2nd Filippo Ganna (9/1)

3rd Marijn van den Berg (16/1)

Stage 19 Bets

Kaden Groves 3pts win @6/5

Groves was brought down but seemingly uninjured in a crash just before the flamme rouge – unlucky, but that’s sprinting it seems. Frustratingly, multiple stage pick Van den Berg got up for third though Dainese, to be fair, was unbackable.

Stage 20 Preview

Up and down (count them) ten third-category climbs over a 208km route – the longest of this year’s Vuelta – this parcours looks something akin to a one-day classic. No single hill is particularly long or tough but the accumulation of almost 4,500m of altitude gain during the day will tell on tired legs.

Plenty will be after getting in the break as the road rises from the gun and once Jumbo-Visma are happy no threat has sneaked into it, has a good chance to battle it out for the win. However, there should still be pace and attacks from behind, so it won’t be easy. It’ll be interesting to see how selective it gets – will it favour a puncheur or a pure climber? Either way, it’ll probably be handy to have a decent kick at the end.

Stage 20 Contenders

Remco Evenepoel (11/8; 2.37) is a very short price and the stage, which looks perfect for him, is probably his for the taking should he want it. But he has spoken of how he’d like to reward teammates and how his win on stage 18 was a great way to ‘finish’ la Vuelta. The price isn’t value but he could well hose up again.

Andreas Kron (14/1; 15.00) has had a great race with a win, two thirds and a fifth. What legs he’s got just now. Punchy on a climb and fast on the line – what’s not to like?

Wout Poels (18/1; 19.00) is looking better and better, what a shame there isn’t another proper mountain stage for him to try for the break. This will have to do, but he could still drop everyone else with the legs he’s got just now.

Lennard Kämna (20/1; 21.00) would probably prefer longer climbs but seems sure to go for it. He does tend to win solo, however, which might not be possible here and therefore could find others faster on the line.

Rui Costa (28/1; 29.00) was that man on stage 15 for his first Grand Tour stage win in ten years. The former world champion has few admirers but knows how to play his cards in a final.

Romain Grégoire (25/1; 26.00) at just 20 years of age has had a great Grand Tour debut without quite getting a breakthrough win. This is another good one for him though and surely will be up the road.  

Marc Soler (33/1; 34.00) hasn’t thrown enough of the Hail Mary attacks that we like to see, largely because he’s been so high on GC. After one of those failed on Thursday, he isn’t anymore, so should be active and off the front at some point.

Bauke Mollema (50/1; 51.00) is apparently at this Vuelta and would ordinarily fancy a stage like this. He may well deliver and the price will look big in hindsight but given his anonymity is unbackable.

Oier Lazcano (66/1; 67.00) has been a bit sick and hasn’t been able to show his best so far this Vuelta. He’s been on the front for Movistar these last few days though, so maybe he’s feeling a bit better. If so, the Spanish champion’s price is very good on a profile that should suit.

Mattia Cattaneo (40/1; 41.00) and Louis Vervaeke (80/1; 81.00) of Soudal Quick-Step could benefit should Evenepoel choose to either help them or they get up the road without him. Both are excellent climbers but of the two, Vervaeke probably has the better punch and sprint, which it may come down to.

The break is favoured but not guaranteed if it hots up early behind. As it’s the last (proper) road stage, let’s put up a nice big portfolio with some juicy prices … and hope the break doesn’t get caught!

Stage 20 Bets

Andreas Kron 2pts each way (4 places) @14/1

Lennard Kämna 1pt each way (4 places) @22/1

Marc Soler 1pt each way (4 places) @33/1

Oier Lazcano 0.5pts each way (4 places) @66/1

Louis Vervaeke 0.5pts each way (4 places) @80/1

Posted 21:36 BST Fri 15th Sept 2023

Prices to win the stage (in brackets) are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available on the Vuelta a España at Oddschecker

[Vuelta a España stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]

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