Vuelta a España 2022

Stage 20 – Moralzarzal > Puerto de Navacerrada (181.0km)

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Stage 19 Result

1st Mads Pedersen (3/1F)

2nd Fred Wright (10/1)

3rd Gianni Vermeersch (125/1)

Stage 19 Bets

1pt each way (3 places) Bob Jungels @40/1

1pt each way (3 places) Rohan Dennis @40/1

1pt each way (3 places) Dylan van Baarle @40/1

0.5pts each way (3 places) Jai Hindley @325/1

This stage promised a lot but delivered very little in the way excitement. Trek-Segafredo, and later Bahrain Victorious, kept a surprisingly small break on a tight leash and delivered the first and second favourites for the stage to, well … first and second.

Stage 20 Preview

The final mountain stage of this year’s Vuelta a España and last chance for changes within the GC ranking. The terrain rises steadily from the gun to the bottom of the first of five categorised climbs and passing where the riders will finish after a circular 150km route. It’s here that we could see a huge break go clear, full of top quality climbers and GC scouts who will have a job to do later in the stage.

The climbs themselves are not the toughest on paper, however, the accumulation of fatigue over the three weeks and the back-to-back nature of the day’s ascents mean the riders will still need to bring their best climbing legs not to be caught out. But how early will the race explode and will any of the major players crack?

Stage 20 Contenders

We’re into kitchen sink territory in the GC race but will any team be willing risk losing everything in order to win? Specifically, will Movistar look to isolate Remco Evenepoel early in the stage knowing that this may also jeopardise Enric Mas’s runners-up spot on the podium. With valuable UCI points also to take into account for the relegation threatened Spanish side, it will be a fine balance between defence and attack.

These two are the standout climbers left in the race and it would be great to see a dust-up some distance from home but given the lack of severe gradients on the climbs, that’s unlikely to happen. More likely it’ll kick off on the third or second-to-last climb. Mas has been more willing to attack than perhaps we’ve ever seen and could have the slight edge over Evenepoel by the end of this one.

The final place on the podium is definitely in play with Miguel Ángel López sitting just 42secs behind UAE Team Emirates’ Juan Ayuso, so we’re sure to see Astana Qazqaqstan in some kind of coordinated offensive. The tactics of UAE will be interesting as they João Almeida and Marc Soler who are suited by these climbs and will fancy a stage victory themselves. Would they be called back to save third place for Ayuso?

Importantly, there’s a good 7km or so from the top of the final climb – the Puerto de Cotos (10.3km at 6.9%) – to the line so a bit of a sprint may come in handy. That’s good for Evenepoel, Ayuso, Almeida and also Bora-Hansgrohe’s Jai Hindley whose form appears to be building, albeit way too late to challenge in the overall. In fact, though sitting in 10th, he may feel his chances of a stage win are greater from the day’s break.

Watch out also for AG2R’s Ben O’Connor, currently lying in eighth, who felt he had the legs to compete for the win on stage 18 but fired his bullets too early – a better timed attack here could see him get a decisive gap that would be difficult to bridge. These lower gradients are in his favour and is a decent each-way shout.

For the break, we’re unlikely to get any surprises at this late stage. If a rider hasn’t shown themselves by now then we can assume they’re not at the level to compete. Ineos’ Richard Carapaz will be up the road, though his priority will be mopping up the mountains points and secure the jersey so cruelly removed from the shoulders of Jay Vine.

Carapaz and FDJ’s Thibaut Pinot probably marked each other out of a chance of victory on stage 18 having missed the jump by Robert Gesink. But although he came up just short, Pinot was still able to ride with the lead group and chased home in sixth. He’s sure to be up there again and has a big chance should the break win the day.

Hopefully we get a proper GC fight – Evenepoel looks secure in red … but you never know!

Stage 20 Bets

2pt win Enric Mas @6/1

1pt each way (3 places) Ben O’Connor @18/1

2pts win Thibaut Pinot @11/1

Posted 2114 BST Fri 9th Sep 2022

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