Vuelta a España 2022

Las Rozas > Madrid. Paisaje de la Luz (96.7km)

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Stage 20 Result

1st Richard Carapaz (14/1)

2nd Thymen Arensman (25/1)

3rd Juan Ayuso (20/1)

Stage 20 Bets

2pt win Enric Mas @6/1 – 5th

1pt each way (3 places) Ben O’Connor @18/1

2pts win Thibaut Pinot @11/1

Pinot made the break but was unable to sustain an early attack and drifted back through the field. O’Connor too was distanced by the pace up front, but the gradients were not tough enough for Mas to put Evenepoel under pressure and the skirmishes were mainly around GC placings lower down which, apart from the bloodied Rodríguez losing two places, remained unaltered.

Stage 21 Preview

The peloton – or what’s left of it – head to Madrid for what’s almost certain to be a bunch sprint finish to end this year’s Vuelta a España. After 50km the riders will hit the city streets and complete eight laps around the capital – a circuit which contains three tight U-bends but is otherwise full of straight, wide avenidas.

With a slight right-hander inside the final 300m, good positioning is a must as sprints will be launched soon after coming out of it. There’s also a slight uphill drag to the line so timing that launch correctly will also be vital for those sprinters looking to end the race on a high note.   

Stage 21 Contenders

We have a few sprinters that could rescue their race with a win here on the final day, but the clear favourite at around 11/10 has already taken three victories (as well as three seconds) and secured the green jersey. Trek-Segafredo’s Mads Pedersen is on ridiculously good form and looks unbeatable. Is there anything against him? Well, this is a flatter finish and therefore not ideal for the Dane, and in different company he’d be vulnerable to a pure sprinter’s top speed. But do we have anyone with the form and confidence to challenge him here?

Ordinarily, Alpecin-Deceuninck’s Tim Merlier would be the standout fast man remaining in the field, but he’s had an unfortunate Vuelta with interference and mechanicals hindering his efforts to get his arms in the air. Fair play for hauling himself over the mountains for this final chance to keep up his record of winning at each Grand Tour in which he’s competed. Granted this would only be number three but motivation will surely be high to keep that run going. Assuming he’s still got some zing left in his legs, the 7/2 about him might be a bit better value.

Many were writing off UAE Team Emirates Pascal Ackermann after he struggled early on, but he fought back well with a couple of podium finishes in the second half of the race. The German has also won on this finish – in the shortened edition of 2020 – which may be useful experience on knowing where to be and when to go. He’s slightly bigger again at 5s.

Bora-Hansgrohe’s Danny van Poppel has also had good sighters with two high finishes in recent years. After taking over sprint duties from two-time stage winner Sam Bennett, Van Poppel has gone close without getting his nose in front. He has another chance here and should get a decent leadout with Ryan Mullen and Jonas Koch.

Similarly, the big BikeExchange-Jayco motors of Lawson Craddock and Luke Durbridge should put Kaden Groves into a decent position and, as he showed on stage 11, has serious pace on the flat. Jumbo Visma will no doubt try to set up Mike Teunissen for a sprint chance, though a tougher stage beforehand would be more in his favour. That said, all of the riders have three weeks of racing in their legs, so who knows?

Pedersen is clearly at a level we haven’t really seen before and his confidence is sky-high, but with a good leadout and a bit of luck, Merlier could push him close.

Stage 21 Bets

2pts win Tim Merlier @7/2

Posted 2032 BST Sat 10th Sep 2022

Prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available on the Vuelta a España at Oddschecker

Stage 21 Result

1st Juan Sebastián Molano (33/1)

2nd Mads Pedersen (11/10F)

3rd Pascal Ackermann (5/1)

Stage 21 Bets

2pts win Tim Merlier @7/2

That was typical of a sprint stage at the end of a Grand Tour with teams barely having the legs to bring back a small group and a surprise winner popping up at the end. They were all over the place and the stage pick, Merlier, was nowhere to be seen.