Giro d’Italia 2023

Stage 20 – Tarvisio > Monte Lussari Tudor ITT (18.6km)

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Stage 19 Result

1st Santiago Buitrago (18/1)

2nd Derek Gee (150/1)

3rd Magnus Cort (600/1)

4th Primož Roglič (9/4F)

Stage 19 Bets

Geraint Thomas 2pts win @4/1

Ilan Van Wilder 0.5pts each way @18/1

Thomas did put in that sucker punch as predicted, but got suckered himself close to the line. And it wasn’t for the win anyway. Van Wilder made no attempt to make the break and came home 14th, remaining outside the top 10 on GC – strange decision that. The picks were saved somewhat by Buitrago, who landed the 9/2 about winning a stage put up in the outright preview.  

Stage 20 Preview

The stage 20 individual time trial is the final chance for movement on general classification before the procession in Rome on Sunday which should be fought out by the sprinters, and with less than a minute separating the top 3, everything is to play for. The profile is pretty horrendous with 11km of rolling, slightly uphill roads before the first-category Monte Lussari climb – 7.3km at 12.1% but with sections over the 20% mark.

Most riders will change to their road bikes in a designated zone before the climb which averages 15% for the first 5km before levelling off, followed by two further double-digit pitches up to the finish. The tree-lined path up to the Monte Lussari sanctuary is too narrow for cars so mechanics will follow on motos carrying spare bikes. It all sounds a bit chaotic but should be an exciting watch and will decide who wins the 2023 Giro d’Italia.

Stage 20 Contenders

This stage takes place only about 10km from the Slovenian border, so 2/1 favourite Primož Roglič will have a huge amount of support and, if he needed it, extra motivation to do well. Roglič managed to claw back 3secs from Geraint Thomas on stage 19 and now lies just 26secs behind the Welshman which is nothing considering the gradients they’ll be taking on here.

It’s not clear if he’s a ‘G’ fan, but a chapeau should go out to Magnus Cort who, having been in the breakaway all day, went full beans to the line and denied Roglič an extra 4secs bonus for third place – could that be crucial in the final tally, who knows?

Roglič of course has previous on stage 20 grand tour mountain time trials having lost the Tour de France on the Planche des Belles Filles to Tadej Pogačar back in 2020. It’s unlikely to have any bearing on this though – Rog is clearly going well and will take all the beating. Whether a stage win also converts to a Giro win is another question.   

Thomas responded well to Roglič’s attacks on the Tre Cime di Lavareno but, by his own admission, went a bit early with his own attack – hopefully those few seconds don’t cost him as he was probably the strongest rider on the climb. As we’ve said before, the steeper stuff is not his cup of tea but at least he can keep his own pace and it’s all about the legs anyway. Thomas is just behind Roglič in the betting at 5/2.

Joäo Almeida looks third best but what happened yesterday doesn’t necessarily dictate what happens today. The Portuguese is excellent at pacing himself which will be vital on the climb where going into the red early will be curtains.

Besides Thomas, Ineos Grenadiers have two other riders – Thymen Arensman and Laurens De Plus – who need solid efforts to defend their place in the top 10. After struggling with an adjustment from an altitude camp in the Tour of the Alps, Arensman has grown stronger and stronger through the Giro. A talented TTer (he was second on the stage 21 time trial at last year’s race), the Dutchman has a chance of leapfrogging into the top 5 with a good result here. Unfortunately, his price has been cut since markets opened and is now around the 9/1 mark, which is short enough.

It's the final week of a grand tour, so not surprisingly Sepp Kuss emerges as one of the best riders left in the race. This clearly is a parcours that suits, though the American has never had great results in individual time trials with ninth his best result in the World Tour.

Jay Vine lost 20mins on stage 19 which is a big change in form following his match saving performance the day before. It’s difficult to explain that one away and it’s a stretch to think he was saving himself for the time trial with Almeida in the hunt for the maglia rosa. Perhaps the three weeks just caught up with him. That said, if he’s on his stage 18 form, then he’s a big player for the stage win and is a clear fourth favourite at around 13/2.

Stage 20 Bets

Thymen Arensman 1pt each way (3 places) @9/1

Posted 20.48 BST 26th May 2023

Prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available on the Giro d’Italia at Oddschecker