Giro d’Italia 2023

Stage 19 – Longarone > Tre Cime di Lavaredo (Rif. Auronzo) (183km)

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Stage 18 Result

1st Filippo Zana (16/1)

2nd Thibaut Pinot (8/1)

3rd Warren Barguil (28/1)

4th Derek Gee (40/1)

Stage 18 Bets

Geraint Thomas 1pt each way (4 places) @10/1

Damiano Caruso 0.5pts each way (4 places) @66/1

Jack Haig 1pt each way (4 places) @18/1

Jay Vine 0.5pts each way (4 places) @40/1

Vadim Pronskiy 0.5pts each way (4 places) @66/1

Disappointing day for the picks as the break took the day by less than 2mins after a bit of Ineos brinkmanship on the valley roads. Haig was in a couple of embryonic breaks that were brought back. Pronskiy made the one that stuck but found the company way too hot (he does fight hard though, finishing the stage just 3mins back). Vine really is flying now and did an excellent job limiting Almeida’s losses – shame he wasn’t allowed up the road. Thomas looked untroubled and followed Roglič home in eighth, and Caruso lost more time on the front three.

Stage 19 Preview

The final mountain road stage of the Giro d’Italia – over 5000m of altitude gain including three first-category climbs and a summit finish up the ridiculously steep Tre Cime di Lavaredo which, after the removal of the Gran San Bernardo Pass on stage 13, will also be the Cima Coppi, the highest point of this year’s race.

The road starts rising after about 20km at the foothills of the first categorized climb of the day, the Passo Campolongo. The strongest legs should be able to make the break on the ever-increasing gradients assuming they’re not a GC threat. It’s then 100km of ups and downs without a valley road to catch the breath.

We should see a thinning down on the Passo Giau (9.9km at 9.3%) which peaks 40km from home but it’s the final 4km of the race on the Tre Cime di Lavaredo, averaging almost 12%, where the stage and probably the Giro will be won or lost.

Stage 19 Contenders

Whether Monte Bondone on Tuesday was just an off-day or he was still struggling with injury, Primož Roglič is definitely back and in contention to win the Giro d’Italia following his performance on stage 18. With his stinging changes of pace, he put Geraint Thomas under real pressure and both managed to distance Joäo Almeida.

Did Roglič have a wobble on the first climb? It wasn’t really clear but Sepp Kuss said afterwards that they were caught sleeping a bit, a gap opened and it triggered Ineos to put the hammer down in front. Either way, he wasn’t wobbling by the end and, as we’ve seen so many times in the third week of grand tours, was delivered to the front by Kuss for his decisive attack. If the Slovenian’s form continues on the upturn, he’s the logical favourite for stage 19 at a best price of 11/4.

Thomas did well to stay with Roglič, reacting to his changes of pace on steep slopes that weren’t ideal for him. It shows how good his legs are right now but they’ll be tested again on the Tre Cime di Lavaredo – will he be able to stay on Rog’s wheel when the knife goes in?

Almeida doesn’t like sudden bursts of acceleration either and was saved somewhat on stage 18 by the excellent Jay Vine. The Portuguese was many people’s favourite to win the Giro following his ride on stage 16, so was it an off-day or a sign of his form on the slide? It was probably more to do with the severe gradients and so, like Thomas, will be at a disadvantage in those final kilometres.

Of the three, it’s Thomas who’s looked the least fragile and can afford to follow and defend. How about a sucker-punch near the top of the final climb when the others are played out? Let’s go in again on ‘G’ at 4/1.

The break has a chance but less so than on stage 18. Either or both of Jumbo-Visma and UAE Team Emirates will ride to put pressure on Ineos and try to isolate Thomas. The pace will pick up early, probably on the Passo Giau, maybe even to set up a long-range attack. There’s no time left to be cautious, everything will be left out on the road and this will jeopardise the chances of the break staying away.

On the other side, there are now more quality riders at a safe distance from GC that should be allowed to go forward, though some teams may want to protect and mark top 10 challengers.

Soudal Quick-Step’s Ilan Van Wilder is now 9mins down in 13th and could be one of those to trigger some top 10 games. It’s unclear, however, whether he’ll try to get ahead or will want to measure himself against the favourites behind. At 18/1, Van Wilder is worth a little each way in case he goes for it.

EF Education-EasyPost’s Hugh Carthy hasn’t had a great race but could save it with a last-knockings stage win. He’ll likely get himself up the road and the steep gradients are to his liking, but is he showing the form to finish it off? He’s as short as 12/1 in places which doesn’t appeal at all.

Santiago Buitrago has tried a number of times to get into breakaways but has always been heavily marked. Now at over 12mins down, he should be afforded a pass and would be a major player for a stage win.

His Bahrain Victorious teammate, Jack Haig, was unlucky not to be in the break on stage 18 with Ineos pushing the pace in the peloton having got the word (incorrectly it would seem) that Roglič was toiling. Who knows what he could’ve done had he made it? He’ll no doubt try again and is around 25/1 to finish it off.

At only 4mins 43secs down, Thibaut Pinot is surely too close to GC to be allowed in the break this time and his chances of a stage win appear to be toast. He’ll probably still try but there’s jeopardy in that as Ben Healy could take his maglia azzurra. The prudent thing to do would be for Pinot and his team to mark Healy out of the break and then the mountains competition is his, but that’s probably not his style.

On balance, this is much more likely to be one for the favourites than a breakaway day, but let’s play both just in case.

Stage 19 Bets

Geraint Thomas 2pts win @4/1

Ilan Van Wilder 0.5pts each way (3 places) @18/1

Posted 22.23 BST 25th May 2023

Prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available on the Giro d’Italia at Oddschecker